tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-181644092024-03-14T09:59:56.110-07:00CIS471: Network-based applicationsThis blog supplements CIS471, a course on the technology, applications and implications of computer networks/Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.comBlogger911125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-70328315002287838822024-03-11T09:40:00.000-07:002024-03-11T09:43:20.447-07:00Starlink has begun delivering promised latency cuts<p></p><div class="gs" style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;"><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;"><p>In his January 12th SpaceX update, Elon Musk said the biggest goal for Starlink from a technical standpoint <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xLmBLWDSHo&t=1750s">is to get the mean latency below 20 ms</a>. He expanded by saying that given the speed of light, 8 ms is the absolute minimum latency for a satellite at 550 km. He believes they can optimize terrestrial and inter-satellite links, and minimize queueing delays and dropped packets, to recude the the rest of the time to below 10 ms. He predicted that eventually"Starlink will be more responsive than ground Intenet in most cases."</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX2UWM5ylzrAleKR2_C8WW6KVjT4kzwEKj8FinOQxOeGTEuv803nfJ-pygjsomM9MmB8VNLVmuRAkRG1WP50D7k2Gbd7jy2fd6kohQZ0t3CN7V-U4z0KaPWiGmK3jykB0qMg8pfrGLqw6QFtux8qPUx6frhfafRN51C3GqbKAM9TVi5OGKBz1RxQ/s1076/OlegTestRev3.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="1076" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX2UWM5ylzrAleKR2_C8WW6KVjT4kzwEKj8FinOQxOeGTEuv803nfJ-pygjsomM9MmB8VNLVmuRAkRG1WP50D7k2Gbd7jy2fd6kohQZ0t3CN7V-U4z0KaPWiGmK3jykB0qMg8pfrGLqw6QFtux8qPUx6frhfafRN51C3GqbKAM9TVi5OGKBz1RxQ/s320/OlegTestRev3.png" width="320" /></a></div>A month later, we saw early results of the latency-reduction effort. On February 12, Oleg Kutkov <a href="https://olegkutkov.me/2024/02/12/starlink-terminal-revision-4-overview-and-tests/">tested Starlink's Rev 3 and Rev 4 terminals</a> and, as shown here, he found no latency inflation as background upload and download speeds increased simultaneously when using the Rev 3 terminal. He compared the Rev 3 and 4 terminals and found that Rev 4 upload and download speeds were about 50% faster than Rev3. Average ping times were somewhat improved for Rev 4 (88 vs 93 ms), but jitter was significantly lower (9.2 vs 111.9 ms).</div><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;">You should also check out <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0Tmvv5jJKs&t=2045s">Dave Taht's take on Oleg's results</a>. He concedes that Starlink has improved dramatically, and outlines steps they could take to further reduce latency.<p></p><p>Last week, SpaceX released <a href="https://api.starlink.com/public-files/StarlinkLatency.pdf">news of progress toward the 20 ms latency goal</a>. They have worked to reduce latency throughout the Starlink system. Since the begining of the year, they have deployed and tested 193 different satellite software builds, 75 gateway software builds, 222 Starlink software builds, and 57 WiFi software builds. </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd8-XPsoQRJQKmcK2hb6fiApLFr8AB0AYwAoj-AZ8sep_AxHscuG1TYQWsf5vubKzts3K2HAHRACGls1i1tF9azU4hqH1W9uwCsi8aiG61obXjOd6kWZ69Xi4N_1u0jH13AwxuSTDfMRaLolN1MKYRkTA4JgbS7VnUryAPicjEVgjA4Eu61CBeNA/s1679/StarlinkLatencyMap.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1133" data-original-width="1679" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd8-XPsoQRJQKmcK2hb6fiApLFr8AB0AYwAoj-AZ8sep_AxHscuG1TYQWsf5vubKzts3K2HAHRACGls1i1tF9azU4hqH1W9uwCsi8aiG61obXjOd6kWZ69Xi4N_1u0jH13AwxuSTDfMRaLolN1MKYRkTA4JgbS7VnUryAPicjEVgjA4Eu61CBeNA/s320/StarlinkLatencyMap.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">This is the latency view of the interactive map.</td></tr></tbody></table>For a month preceding March 7, SpaceX collected data every 15 seconds from millions of Starlink routers. In analyzing the data, they defined worst-case latency is the point at which 99% of times are shorter and peak hours as 6-9 PM local time. <p></p><p>In the United States, they found that median latency was reduced by more than 30%, from 48.5ms to 33ms during peak usage hours, and worst-case peak hour latency had dropped by over 60%, from over 150ms to less than 65ms. Outside the United States median latency was reduced by up to 25% and worst-case latencies by up to 35%. <a href="https://www.starlink.com/map?view=latency">The map shown here</a> is interactive and shows availability and upload and download speeds in addition to latency.</p><p></p><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;"><a href="https://api.starlink.com/public-files/StarlinkLatency.pdf">SpaceX says</a> it has “tuned our algorithms to prefer paths with lower latency, no matter how small the difference, and to remove any and all sources of unnecessary and non-physical latency." Dave Taht and his colleagues at <span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><a href="https://libreqos.io/">LibreQoS</a> might disagree, but latency will improve over time regardless. </span></div><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;"><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;">Latency will improve as SpaceX launches more satellites with more capacity and inter-satellite laser links and the launch rate will increase when Starship becomes available. Adding ground stations will also improve latency. (Note that the only African light-colored areas in the above latency map are within reach of <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?ll=4.340532163536529%2C10.12350431805357&z=6&mid=1805q6rlePY4WZd8QMOaNe2BqAgFkYBY">the only ground stations on the continent</a>).</div><div class="gs" style="margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;">I hope Musk achieves the 20 ms goal for Starlink. Doing so would not only benefit Starlink customers, it would call the attention of the <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/12/its-latency-fcc.html">FCC and terrestrial Internet service providers</a> to the importance of latency as a performance and marketing metric.</div></div></div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-25472057121119623402024-02-22T14:22:00.000-08:002024-03-08T16:04:42.772-08:00Civilian Tech Mobilization in Ukraine<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhjy1PIl1f21JacwKzdzBVN55CV7q55GRhuL-d6z1A8CXtDOWIn-uX2E352mRbgdazZ8oisnLvZrlncHTb2URhxLioTDcIAJ3hQDASCI75Lzn2SrzJYfsXem-8PcQK7sb-OWK80AkGLESGMveTrzEs74jnBLoFgrBvnAxz5yOYQD-kW0kYNMRvT0w" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="248" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhjy1PIl1f21JacwKzdzBVN55CV7q55GRhuL-d6z1A8CXtDOWIn-uX2E352mRbgdazZ8oisnLvZrlncHTb2URhxLioTDcIAJ3hQDASCI75Lzn2SrzJYfsXem-8PcQK7sb-OWK80AkGLESGMveTrzEs74jnBLoFgrBvnAxz5yOYQD-kW0kYNMRvT0w=w310-h400" width="310" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Rosie the Riveter, US World War II poster (<a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/2021669753">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><div>As was the case in the US during World War II, civilian volunteers are making important contributions to the Ukrainian war effort.</div><div><p></p>On February 8, 2022, the first truck load load of Starlink terminals <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-starlink-service-in-ukraine.html">arrived in Kyiv</a>. A week later <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-starlink-in-ukraine-week-later.html">they were being used</a>. By April 2022, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-unprecedented-role-of-internet-in.html">there were 5,000 terminals</a> in Ukraine, and <a href="https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-technology/3700941-mihajlo-fedorov-vicepremerministr-z-innovacij-rozvitku-osviti-nauki-ta-tehnologij-ministr-cifrovoi-transformacii.html#:~:text=%2D%20Everything%20works%20stably,them%20for%20this!https://www">42,000</a> as of April 2023. (At this point, SpaceX and Ukraine have gone silent. Neither ChatGPT4, Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity, nor I could not find a current terminal count).<p></p><p>Whatever the number of terminals in the country, they require support. They were purchased, delivered, and set up. Users were trained and they require real-time access for troubleshooting and assistance. Broken terminals have to be repaired and some terminals have been modified. Civilian tech volunteers are doing much of this work. </p><p>There are several Starlink support centers throughout Ukraine. For obvious reasons, they are secretive about their work, but one large one is <a href="http://nebogray.com/">Nebogray</a> in Lviv. Neborgray has repaired 5,976 Starlink terminals and converted 516 for portable use mounted on vehicle roofs. In addition to the service centers, there are many individual craftsmen and small services throughout the country.</p><p>The work at Nebogry is performed by highly qualified volunteers. For example, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/olegkutkov.me">Oleg Kutkov</a>. is a senior engineer at <a href="https://www.facebook.com/UIeverywhere">Ubiquiti</a>, and he devotes his spare time to Starlink research. He bought what may have been the first Starlink terminal in Ukraine on eBay before the war and does teardowns and research studies like this recent <a href="https://olegkutkov.me/2024/02/12/starlink-terminal-revision-4-overview-and-tests/">unboxing and review of the Version 4 Starlink terminal</a> on his blog. Oleg is an active participant in the <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink">Starlink mailing list</a> and the 15,700-member <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/starlinkforukraine">People's Starlink Facebook group</a>.</p><p>The Facebook group was created by <a href="https://www.thesign.media/blog/was-starlink-hacked-in-ukraine-interview-with-volodymyr-stepanets-founder-of-the-initiative-narodnyi-starlink-ukraine">The People's Starlink project</a>, which is involved in refurbishing, adapting, repairing, and providing technical support, as well as procuring and upgrading satellite communication terminals from SpaceX's Starlink for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other defenders of Ukraine. </p><p>With the help of many contributors, including Oleg, People's Starlink founder <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/vstepanets/">Vladimir Stepanets</a> has written a 246-page <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FPABd398YRWhwPFR1kPbCCsH6KGofP-H/view">Starlink Handbook for Military Users</a>, which begins with a message from the author “Greetings defenders of Ukraine!”</p><p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9hKCgwNMj84G_5nNu5hB40Ei6Lm4fyDofDo6W4He7WFd7K38fLPw4WvK85GykP8ZuHpkNOUVA1IY6YnqVcmHbyyZYc4iiMiSEO0VxPEiaLVvScS6Q6-DNJpyZNgLurpSHkv-57IflU1zdrZHj676xTeECrP5E84XVHk7TKZp92VYsU1k8YuLB3g/s1284/UkrainianTTTCourse.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1284" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9hKCgwNMj84G_5nNu5hB40Ei6Lm4fyDofDo6W4He7WFd7K38fLPw4WvK85GykP8ZuHpkNOUVA1IY6YnqVcmHbyyZYc4iiMiSEO0VxPEiaLVvScS6Q6-DNJpyZNgLurpSHkv-57IflU1zdrZHj676xTeECrP5E84XVHk7TKZp92VYsU1k8YuLB3g/s320/UkrainianTTTCourse.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Starlink Handbook for Military Users</td></tr></tbody></table>The handbook is divided into eight, richly illustrated modules:<p></p><p></p><ul><li>What is Starlink?</li><li>Starlink Terminals</li><li>Powering Starlink terminals</li><li>Expanding and collapsing Starlink terminals</li><li>Terminal management and settings</li><li>Safety of using Starlink terminals</li><li>Diagnostics and problem-solving</li><li>Starlink in network infrastructures</li></ul><p></p><p>This is the second (and first public) edition of the handbook and it will continue evolving. It is currently available in Ukrainian, but Stepanets is discussing translations into several other languages and plans to publish it as a book.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzhfxvLXyVjbbYf_vyii1_NUjXA76x3susvwDETvADF00jQGfvXgl4YG65BnB_GxgpSrqKtyXbC4lfsAPGWBF1qr4iFuQ2BsTqNSvfV8r5Xocp_SkwGkSDjpysxjjTIfErr4pv2g1jFYvmr6xcdRFomCzPmjEgOIxjgPwn7UMtDkWx-4z9EXgV2g/s780/PointOfInvincibity.webp" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="780" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzhfxvLXyVjbbYf_vyii1_NUjXA76x3susvwDETvADF00jQGfvXgl4YG65BnB_GxgpSrqKtyXbC4lfsAPGWBF1qr4iFuQ2BsTqNSvfV8r5Xocp_SkwGkSDjpysxjjTIfErr4pv2g1jFYvmr6xcdRFomCzPmjEgOIxjgPwn7UMtDkWx-4z9EXgV2g/s320/PointOfInvincibity.webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Point of invincibility in Bucha, Ukraine</td></tr></tbody></table>In response to Russian attacks on critical infrastructure, Ukraine has established thousands of <a href="https://nezlamnist.gov.ua/">Points of Invincibility</a>, tent structures equipped with generators. The government is <a href="https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/pracyuyemo-abi-kozhen-punkt-nezlamnosti-zabezpechiti-starlinkom-premyer-ministr">working to provide a Starlink terminal</a> for each of them in addition to heat, water, lighting, and more.<p></p><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">The <a href="https://itarmy.com.ua/?lang=en#">IT Army of Ukraine</a> is an international, loosely connected organization of Ukrainian and foreign ethical hackers. They have created an online service that Ukrainian allies can use to generate denial-of-service attacks. Of course, one man's "ethical hacker" is another man's "terrorist," and Ukraine has petitioned The International Criminal Court <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/11/war-ukraine-tests-how-cyberattacks-fit-into-rules-war-crimes/">to investigate Russian cyberattacks as war crimes</a>. The International Committee of the Red Cross <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-66998064">has published rules of engagement for civilian hackers</a> involved in conflicts and the IT Army will make a best effort to follow the rules.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: inherit;">It was obvious from the early days of the war that two technologies -- Starlink and drones -- were going to play major roles. Model airplane hobbyists </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerorozvidka" style="font-family: inherit;">created an a</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerorozvidka">ir reconnaissance unit</a> within the army when fighting began in 2014 and Starlink <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-is-using-elon-musks-starlink-for-drone-strikes/a-61270528">enabled surveillance drones</a> to relay target coordinates to artillery units. </span></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit;">Today, non-technical people like </span><span style="color: #333333;">Violetta Oliynyk, an artist and jeweler, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-jeweler-builds-drones/32798439.html">are assembling drones</a> in their spare time. She learned drone assembly by <a href="https://prometheus.org.ua/course/course-v1:Prometheus+FPV101+2024_T1?fbclid=IwAR0oBWPnZUk8bhvVQiBzKeeCQeyl3CD9hBNcQ5evJoHr9fQ0NWJc989uPBw">taking an online course</a> from </span><a href="https://prometheus.org.ua/">Prometheus</a>, a nine-year-old education site with over 400 courses online. (The course was developed for the <a href="https://en.victory-drones.com/">Victory Drones</a> project). <a href="https://www.socialdrone.com.ua/">Social Drones UA</a> is another volunteer drone assembly project. They vet then train and support potential assemblers with a how-to video and online support. </p><p>Ukrainians are also <a href="https://vaping360.com/vape-news/115884/ukraine-disposable-vape-batteries-help-fight-the-war-with-russia/">assembling battery packs</a> from batteries in discarded vapes, which is reminiscent of Americans <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2014/04/reluctantly-turning-bacon-into-bombs-during-world-war-ii/360298/">saving and turning in excess cooking fat</a> to be used in explosives during World War II.</p><p>Civilian volunteers and Ukrainian tech companies <a href="https://youtu.be/voPCPhzmL10?si=Yh2J72Dn_6q450Hj">have pivoted to military innovation and production</a>. Ukraine was technologically advanced before the war and has been forced to innovate and improvise. If Ukraine survives, the tech sector will thrive when peace comes. </p><div class="gs" style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 20px; width: initial;"><div class="ii gt" id=":1j8" jslog="20277; u014N:xr6bB; 1:WyIjdGhyZWFkLWE6cjQ4MTY4MTYwNTc3MTUwODIwMjkiXQ..; 4:WyIjbXNnLWE6ci0yMzg0MDE4MDY5NzkyNDk2NzEyIl0." style="direction: ltr; margin: 8px 0px 0px; overflow-x: hidden; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div class="a3s aiL" id=":1j9" style="direction: initial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: 1.5; overflow: auto hidden; position: relative;"><div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 0.875rem;">I've presented a few examples of civilian tech support for the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion. There are many others, and if you are so inclined, the Internet makes it possible for you to contribute to them. Many project Websites have contribution links and you can also consult Reddit's list of <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities/">vetted Ukrainen charities</a>.</span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 0.875rem;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Google Sans", Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="font-size: 0.875rem;"><b>Update 3/8/2024</b></span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIH-VxB5-TVUaKnIDUg-nrmKOohxhSK0kWSTulmFXgzoQ_uf6mJ46HchpTozx5hQN12WKPI1SS9HKSyn_Tg429cKB_2NFMdVjRUhFi18R-zuCQHoymgPjJOK_Fxrgs1moSXQUPDU-QC79cXqHVCl4jV8RdD8f24_ju6aCNyC0BWtzInXK5EpaSWA/s2132/OlegPersonOfTheYear.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2132" data-original-width="1600" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIH-VxB5-TVUaKnIDUg-nrmKOohxhSK0kWSTulmFXgzoQ_uf6mJ46HchpTozx5hQN12WKPI1SS9HKSyn_Tg429cKB_2NFMdVjRUhFi18R-zuCQHoymgPjJOK_Fxrgs1moSXQUPDU-QC79cXqHVCl4jV8RdD8f24_ju6aCNyC0BWtzInXK5EpaSWA/w240-h320/OlegPersonOfTheYear.png" width="240" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">I believe Oleg is by Volodymyr Zelenskyy's ear.</td></tr></tbody></table>Oleg Kutkov was among the "people embodying the spirit of Ukraine," <a href="https://time.com/spirit-of-ukraine-person-of-the-year-2022/">chosen by Time Magazine as Person of the Year for 2022</a>. Time wrote:</div><div dir="auto" style="color: #222222; font-size: small;"><div dir="auto"><blockquote>Ukraine first came back online when Elon Musk activated his low-altitude Starlink satellite internet, as he would later do in Iran. The net was crucial to Ukrainian forces, who were issued the compact, portable Starlink antennas. But in Kyiv, self-described “tech and space nerd” Oleg Kutkov reconstructed a Starlink dish from eBay, and after contacting SpaceX support, caught a signal. “I was the first civilian user of Starlink here in Ukraine,” says Kutkov, 34, who began a Facebook group that has grown to 8,700 people. “They read about me in the news, and they were all worrying about connectivity because the internet is really important here to get all the news, to get notifications and so on.”</blockquote><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div dir="auto"><br /></div><div dir="auto"> </div><div dir="auto"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="color: #222222; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div></div></div></div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-50062348798010326352024-01-19T08:47:00.000-08:002024-02-09T11:31:42.611-08:00Amazon Project Kuiper vs SpaceX Starlink<p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Amazon's Project Kuiper is far behind Starlink and is under time pressure, but Amazon has several things going for it.</span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;">In 2019, I wrote that
Amazon </span><a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/07/latecomer-amazon-will-be-formidable.html" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">would be a formidable satellite-ISP competitor</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;">. I still think so, but I didn’t </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;">expect it would be over four years until they
launched the first test satellites. In the meantime, SpaceX has put </span><a href="https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">over
5,000 satellites in orbit</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;"> and has </span><a href="https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-starlink-now-has-13-million-customers-in-the-us#:~:text=%E2%80%9CEnabled%20by%20this%20growth%2C%20Starlink,The%20growth%20is%20not%20slowing.%E2%80%9D" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">over two million Starlink customers</span></a><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;">.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Amazon </span><a href="https://spacenews.com/kuiper-launch-companies-say-they-can-meet-amazons-schedule/"><span style="line-height: 107%;">has permission to launch 3,236 satellites</span></a><span style="line-height: 107%;">. They must manufacture and launch at least
half of them by July 2026 and the remainder by July 2029. Can they do it? <span style="background: white; color: #2f3033;">After many delays, they have finally
launched two test satellites, </span></span><a href="https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon-project-kuiper-oisl-space-laser-december-2023-update"><span style="background: white; line-height: 107%;">confirming that inter-satellite laser links (ISLLs) worked</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #2f3033; line-height: 107%;"> at 100 Gbps </span><a href="https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon-project-kuiper-protoflight-mission-november-2023-update"><span style="background: white; line-height: 107%;">while sending traffic</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #2f3033; line-height: 107%;"> “in both
directions from the internet over an AWS fiber-optic connection to our ground
gateway station, up to our satellites, and then down to a customer terminal at
our test location.” All Starlink satellites launched since September 2021 <a href="https://spacenews.com/all-future-starlink-satellites-will-have-laser-crosslinks/#:~:text=SpaceX%20launched%2010%20Starlink%20satellites%20with%20laser,the%20capability%2C%20so%20it%20did%20not%20need">will
have ISLLs</a>, so b</span><span style="line-height: 107%;">y the time Kuiper
is complete, July 2026, all or nearly all Starlink sats will have them and they
will have a much larger constellation.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Amazon has not launched any production
satellites and they will have to hurry to meet the 2026 and 2029 deadlines.
They have <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220405005519/en/">signed
contracts for 83 launches</a> over a five-year period, which they say will
provide capacity for “the majority” of the constellation. SpaceX was
conspicuously not one of the vendors, and
a <a href="https://spacenews.com/lawsuit-claims-amazons-board-erred-in-awarding-kuiper-launch-contracts-to-blue-origin-and-others/">shareholder
lawsuit</a> pointed out that Amazon had not considered SpaceX as a provider and nearly
45% of the overall value is for launches and engines from Blue Origin, a rocket
company founded by Jeff Bezos. Subsequently, Kuiper <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/01/amazon-spacex-starlink-kuiper-bezos-musk/">signed
a 3-launch contract</a> with SpaceX.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">(Note that Blue Origin has not yet launched
their forthcoming New Glenn rocket, which was <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/12/blue-origin-sure-seems-confident-it-will-launch-new-glenn-in-2024/#:~:text=The%20two%2Dstage%20New%20Glenn,orbit%2C%20according%20to%20Blue%20Origin">initially
scheduled to fly in 2020</a>. The New Glenn will have greater capacity than SpaceX’s
current Falcon rocket but significantly less than their forthcoming Starship).</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Amazon's Project Kuiper is far behind Starlink
and is under time pressure, but Amazon has several things going for it:</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"></p><ul><li><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In
his first letter to stockholders, Jeff Bezos <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/04/amazons-orbiting-infrastructure.html">stressed
that Amazon was an infrastructure company</a> and that has been borne out by subsequent investments
in facilities and services. Amazon will bundle Kuiper access with data storage
and cloud computing services.</span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Kuiper
will offer service-level agreements to non-consumer customers.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Amazon will be Kuiper’s largest customer. With </span><a href="https://explodingtopics.com/blog/amazon-employees"><span style="line-height: 107%;">over 1.5 million employees</span></a><span style="line-height: 107%;"> staffing offices, warehouses, and
other facilities, Amazon will use the
Kuiper constellation internally as will their fleets of delivery trucks, planes,
shipping containers, and perhaps delivery drones someday.</span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Amazon
is already in the space business with its <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/ground-station/">satellite ground station service</a>.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">The
US, Taiwanese, and other governments and
militaries will see Amazon as a more reliable supplier of critical infrastructure
than Starlink given Elon Musk’s political activism and Tesla’s dependence on
China.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Some
potential customers may not approve of Elon Musk’s political involvement.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Re-usability gives Starlink a large launch-cost advantage, but if Elon Musk can afford Twitter, Jeff
Bezos can afford Kuiper.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Amazon's New Glenn rocket is designed to be reusable and eight Chinese private and state-owned entities <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-landspace-conducts-first-vtvl-test-for-reusable-stainless-steel-rocket/">are developing reusable rockets</a>.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Kuiper
will be launching state-of-the-art satellites and selling state-of-the-art
terminals.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Satellite
antennas are expensive, and Amazon has experience designing and manufacturing
consumer devices like the Echo and Kindle. </span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Amazon has announced <a href="https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/heres-your-first-look-at-project-kuipers-low-cost-customer-terminals">three
Kuiper antennas</a>.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">A
user terminal is more than just an antenna and Dave Täht, Chief Science Officer
at <a href="https://libreqos.io/">LibreQoS</a>, has been <a href="https://twit.tv/shows/floss-weekly/episodes/638?autostart=false">calling
attention to Starlink’s latency problem</a> for years. It now seems <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/12/its-latency-fcc.html">Elon Musk is
ready to listen</a>. Amazon should talk with Täht.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Amazon
<a href="https://telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/portal-in-portal/satcom/inside-amazons-effort-to-challenge-elon-musks-starlink-internet-business/106106727#:~:text=Kachroo%2C%20now%20Kuiper's%20business%20development,partnerships%20with%20Verizon%20Communications%20Inc.">is
already talking</a> with enterprises, governments, schools, hospitals, and mobile operators. They have contracts with
Verizon, Vodafone, and NTT and licenses to operate in more than 15 countries,
including Brazil, Canada, France, Mexico, and the US.</span></li></ul><div>I could go on but you get the idea -- I think Kuiper will survive despite a rocky start and will eventually offer Starlink healthy competition.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update Feb 9, 2024</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE5675tyaJ7xDd0xdaaMxFob144GQsgvODEZx4kjXh035yNLJ9H0Cs2lsZYwdBdjYzdQVw1JnENK73xKozhZOAd0Oqe1T-Sm1vvvwv9aOVc9FxgtfMMQ9Su0nZR-crpvEOabp1xS7TYVKgqBu7iMeqzydA8FhEIIyl1ZoRo_lnfaWsomJDs0rqnw/s955/CapexGoogleAmazonMsoft.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="955" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE5675tyaJ7xDd0xdaaMxFob144GQsgvODEZx4kjXh035yNLJ9H0Cs2lsZYwdBdjYzdQVw1JnENK73xKozhZOAd0Oqe1T-Sm1vvvwv9aOVc9FxgtfMMQ9Su0nZR-crpvEOabp1xS7TYVKgqBu7iMeqzydA8FhEIIyl1ZoRo_lnfaWsomJDs0rqnw/s320/CapexGoogleAmazonMsoft.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>I listed Jeff Bezos’s wealth and the expected use of the Kuiper constellation among the causes of my optimism. <a href="https://platformonomics.com/2024/02/follow-the-capex-cloud-table-stakes-2023-retrospective/">A report on the capital expenditures</a> by the three major cloud service companies puts Amazon’s commitment to invest $10 billion over several years in Project Kuiper in context. In 2023 alone “Amazon’s (relative) CAPEX austerity continues, as the company spent a measly $53.7 billion, a decline of 20%" and it has invested around $380 billion since 2000.</div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 100pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-1576042638138927692023-12-11T05:40:00.000-08:002024-02-29T14:11:26.670-08:00It's the latency, FCC<p>Section 706 of the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-104publ104/pdf/PLAW-104publ104.pdf">Telecommunications Act of 1996</a> orders the FCC to “encourage the deployment on a reasonable and timely basis of advanced telecommunications capability to all Americans.” On October 25, The FCC issued a <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-23-89A1.pdf">notice of inquiry</a> (NOI) into how well we are doing and invited comments.</p><p>The NOI points out that COVID and the concomitant increase in the use of interactive applications has “made it clear that broadband is no longer a luxury but a necessity that will only become more important with time" and proposes “an increase from the existing fixed broadband speed benchmark of 25 Mbps download and 3 Mbps upload (25/3 Mbps) to 100/20 Mbps." They also seek comment on a long-term speed goal of 1,000/500 Mbps.</p><p>The focus is clearly on speed. They mention latency on page 12 and jitter and packet loss on page 15, but the FCC made no metrics recommendations on those metrics and requested comments.</p><p>Dave Taht, Chief Science Officer of LibreQOS and an embedded Linux developer and consultant since 1998, drafted a comment arguing that the FCC should “balance its near-term efforts on achieving Internet resilience and minimizing latency, instead of only increasing speed.” Taht invited experts to suggest edits to and sign his draft and <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/filing/status/detail/confirmation/202312010544116721">the submitted comment</a> has 63 signatures, many of which would be familiar to CircleID readers. </p><p>Taht says “Calls for further bandwidth increases are analogous to calling for cars to have top speeds of 100, 500, or 1000 miles per hour” and the "only way to improve responsiveness is to robustly and reliably reduce the latency, and especially the 'latency under load'.” He points out that low latency, not speed, is critical for today’s interactive applications and high latency reduces aggregate network efficiency and increases variability in the user experience. </p><p>Much Internet latency is caused by bufferbloat – packets working their way through queues that build up in routers and other network equipment. Taht has spent years developing tools to measure latency and reduce bufferbloat and he documents his work and that of others in his 27-page NOI comment.</p><p><b>How much speed does one need? </b></p><p>That depends on the applications you use, which is a moving target. My first home Internet terminal was a 10-character per-second (CPS) ASR-33 Teletype with an acoustic coupler. I used it for email, FTP, Telnet, and network news and I was able to collaborate with distant colleagues. I loved it and 100 CPS would not have made a big difference because 10 CPS was about as fast as I could read and faster than I could type. My first connected computer used a 300-bps modem, and modem speeds increased to 56 Kbps driven by applications like Web, and voice over IP.</p><p>Today, Poa Internet in Kenya <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/03/connecting-every-home-in-africa.html">offers uncapped 4 Mbps service</a> which is sufficient for downloading software, articles, books, movies, etc., shopping, making voice-over-IP calls, listening to podcasts, reading newspapers, etc., and, importantly, creating content and inventing and developing applications and services that are relevant to Africa. </p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjamL8-5XyjnlxqoiIO6xdAHjUf0m8LOnwS3jp4B2W4D9EmySvg5xJLsiQDHj5z9WkZ0jyh-n93M3j7B1AGgKspRdtn5ONLmVK6kH4CJJAhxV3kAnDEpXY2S6IZdx9V0q8nytSxeC35XECISs3puNXJVyNO5y7yRLVnUa_ujdbd4PZnjqpeRWvx1g/s1093/NetflixBitRates.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="1093" height="97" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjamL8-5XyjnlxqoiIO6xdAHjUf0m8LOnwS3jp4B2W4D9EmySvg5xJLsiQDHj5z9WkZ0jyh-n93M3j7B1AGgKspRdtn5ONLmVK6kH4CJJAhxV3kAnDEpXY2S6IZdx9V0q8nytSxeC35XECISs3puNXJVyNO5y7yRLVnUa_ujdbd4PZnjqpeRWvx1g/s320/NetflixBitRates.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Netflix speed recommendations (<a href="https://help.netflix.com/en/node/306">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>Streaming video is the most speed-intensive application I use today and Netflix recommends 15 Mbps for viewing UHD 4k movies. Poa Internet customers might be able to view 720p video.<p></p><p>Spectrum, my ISP today, <a href="https://www.spectrum.com/internet">offers three plans</a> – up to 300, 500, and 1,000 Mb/s. I have a 300 Mbps cable connection which is more than I need. M-Lab's <a href="https://speed.measurementlab.net/#/">Internet performance test service</a>, which measures speed and latency unloaded and while simulating background activity reported that my latency increased from 16 to 53 ms when downloading was active and 41 ms when uploading was active. Speeds were 355.3 Mbps download and 11.2 Mbps upload. Considering Netflix’s recommendation, it is unsurprising that streaming two movies on my home WiFi network while running the M-Lab test did not make much difference.</p><div><p>As long as I only watch one movie at a time, I suspect I would not notice much difference if Spectrum only provided me with the current FCC benchmark of 25/3 Mbps. This raises the question of opportunity cost. How much capital and operating cost could Spectrum have saved if they had only provisioned, say, a choice between 25/3 and 50/6 Mbps? Would the savings be sufficient to fill in white spaces in their <a href="https://broadbandmap.fcc.gov/home">national broadband map</a>? </p><p>Spectrum dismisses latency, <a href="https://www.spectrum.com/policies/spectrum-broadband-disclosure">writing</a>:</p><p></p><blockquote>Latency is typically measured in milliseconds, and generally has no significant impact on typical everyday internet usage. As latency varies based on any number of factors, most importantly the distance between a customer's internet connected device and the ultimate internet destination (as well as the number, variety, and quality of networks your packets cross), it is not possible to provide customers with a single figure that will define latency as part of a user experience.</blockquote><p></p></div><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYBodpzbapZgCJKn1XImuNyQ3bFjqkFokiYISO4riZIm79unwnYcR5iOoCOkImC60H26IlYNLQTCDJRDk4ym8wQQv3ogeHogWCMTxSuabwrb_1Z4JJNfPN4atpnUozra1dhUlf7kFDkhcIiFAbNRda9Kobq2KAe3mob7xtG0Z4ZPaXTCsujk2wvw/s1090/PageLoadVsLatency.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="1090" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYBodpzbapZgCJKn1XImuNyQ3bFjqkFokiYISO4riZIm79unwnYcR5iOoCOkImC60H26IlYNLQTCDJRDk4ym8wQQv3ogeHogWCMTxSuabwrb_1Z4JJNfPN4atpnUozra1dhUlf7kFDkhcIiFAbNRda9Kobq2KAe3mob7xtG0Z4ZPaXTCsujk2wvw/s320/PageLoadVsLatency.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Page load time as a function of latency (<a href="https://blog.cloudflare.com/making-home-internet-faster/">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>If we could come up with a "single figure" to define and measure latency, ISPs would have an incentive to improve it, and the FCC could adopt benchmarks. While a single figure may be impossible, could tests isolate the latency in an ISP network and the customer premises equipment (CPE) they supply? Could we use imperfect surrogates for latency like page-load times? Could we benchmark components like the CPE an ISP provides?<p></p><p>While the FCC and ISP marketing are focused on speed today, attention to latency and its measurement is growing within the technical community. To learn more and get involved, check Dave's <a href="http://Bufferbloat.net">Bufferbloat.net</a> site and <a href="http://libreqos.io">LibreQOS</a> and watch Dave's talk <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWViGcBlnm0">here</a>. You can also give the FCC feedback by commenting on Proceeding 22-270 on the <a href="https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/filings/express">FCC Express Comments Page</a>.</p><p><b>Update 1/18/2024</b></p><p>Elon Musk <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xLmBLWDSHo">summarized SpaceX's 2023 accomplishments</a> in a recent talk at Starbase in Texas, He covered many topics <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xLmBLWDSHo&t=1629s">including Starlink</a>. He stated that their biggest single technical goal for the year was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xLmBLWDSHo&t=1750s">to get mean latency under 20 ms</a>. (He estimated that 10 ms was the theoretical minimum given the speed of light). Doing so will require a combination of steps including launching satellites with inter-satellite laser links, adding ground stations, and heeding the <a href="https://twit.tv/shows/floss-weekly/episodes/638?autostart=false">advice Dave Taht has been offering for years</a>.</p><p><b>Update 2/29/2024</b></p><p>A February 22, 2024, FCC draft <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-400675A1.pdf?ref=broadbandbreakfast.com">report and order</a> says the agency should consider low latency a critical requirement of broadband service. The draft states "latency can be critical because it affects a consumer’s ability to use real-time applications, including voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), video calling, distance learning applications, and online gaming." The FCC notes that there are "many different standards for latency" and references Dave Taht's bufferbloat comments as a "wide-ranging discussion of various potential measures of latency." </p><p>The variety of measures and sources of delay make it difficult to define the broadband criteria as well as an ISP marketing pitch</p><p>The report also mentions "consistency of service," which is more readily measured, as a broadband requirement. </p><p>For more on the draft report, <a href="https://broadbandbreakfast.com/untitled-12/">click here</a>.</p><p><br /></p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-89377206962258952042023-11-01T08:45:00.014-07:002023-11-03T15:20:48.502-07:00Space-ground optical (laser) communication<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4fGSiASmadKYvPvrYOESeBv5wusk4IiNU4ALkBKQIO059oHaE_773R2-lxs4rgZ8dUcM3BMvruxiS0EbC83eIUM81f6cg7E_mpzVypiY3cvNGp0b2oy8fDzzPyNLOrwoNoMvuclxOnCOcYkmFnJehzoIhmWTwpcKVXUGD-CaA58ZLIZ2L8QQdFg/s543/SatelliteLaserCommunication.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="543" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4fGSiASmadKYvPvrYOESeBv5wusk4IiNU4ALkBKQIO059oHaE_773R2-lxs4rgZ8dUcM3BMvruxiS0EbC83eIUM81f6cg7E_mpzVypiY3cvNGp0b2oy8fDzzPyNLOrwoNoMvuclxOnCOcYkmFnJehzoIhmWTwpcKVXUGD-CaA58ZLIZ2L8QQdFg/w640-h384/SatelliteLaserCommunication.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">Inter-satellite laser links are in use now, but the technology for optical links to the ground is still being developed and tested. </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br />Optical frequency laser communication links have many advantages over radio frequency (RF) links:<div><ul><li>Optical transmission is much faster than RF communication.</li><li>Optical terminals are smaller and cheaper than RF terminals and use less power.</li><li> It's harder to intercept or jam optical signals so they are more secure and, conversely, better for clandestine use.</li><li>Multiple optical beams can be transmitted simultaneously to multiply speed.</li><li>Optical transmission is license-free. (There isn't enough RF spectrum to accommodate all of the currently proposed satellites).</li></ul><div>SpaceX is equipping its new satellites with inter-satellite laser links (ISLLs). They now have <a href="https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/starlink-video">over 8,000 optical terminals in orbit</a> (3 per satellite) and they communicate at up to 100 Gbps. The other low-Earth orbit Internet service providers <a href="https://circleid.com/posts/20210127-spacex-first-with-inter-satellite-laser-links-in-low-earth-orbit">will follow SpaceX's lead</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>Optical communication works well between satellites in the vacuum of space, but optical signals are weakened and distorted by clouds, rain, water vapor, dust, heat gradients, pollen, etc. in the atmosphere so today SpaceX and others use RF frequencies for communication between space and the ground.</div><div><div><br /></div><div><b>Optical space-ground projects</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Given the long list of optical advantages, many organizations are working on technology to adjust for atmospheric interference and use optical communication between space and the ground. The following are a few examples of optical communication research and development by NASA, universities, the military, private industry, and the Chinese. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>Ten years ago, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/llcdfactsheet.final_.web_.pdf">NASA demonstrated optical communication</a> between a satellite orbiting the moon and Earth, and they are <a href="https://esc.gsfc.nasa.gov/news/Lasers_Light_the_Way_for_Artemis_II_Moon_Mission">updating that now</a>. They have a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/missions/tech-demonstration/nasas-laser-communications-relay-a-year-of-experimentation/">data relay satellite</a> in geosynchronous orbit for relaying data from other satellites to the ground and they are working on <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/deep-space-optical-communications-dsoc/">transmission from deep space</a> beyond the Moon so we will be able to see video from Mars when we land there. They have also <a href="https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/tbird#tbird-terabyte-infrared-delivery-system">transmitted data between</a> a cubesat with a 2.3 kg payload and the ground at a rate of 200 Gbps. </div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-8f7aq48IUtgt9z9kULOEw3zukp-yZWg69RX3WFVKIzXGR2FKOdKkQyPAn-cKfFJTN4uiWQVK8LfvdseIoo8AzARvP2NTrXcMQXAhAxp2j7Jxnarvg8quAc8A2yvQP-9d2OT8oOnzc_TxTy__aG3wDM3VygJ3ioTCrnCevlNJSIpbcHmG9GvtJQ/s1773/SwissLaserCommExperiment.webp" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="463" data-original-width="1773" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-8f7aq48IUtgt9z9kULOEw3zukp-yZWg69RX3WFVKIzXGR2FKOdKkQyPAn-cKfFJTN4uiWQVK8LfvdseIoo8AzARvP2NTrXcMQXAhAxp2j7Jxnarvg8quAc8A2yvQP-9d2OT8oOnzc_TxTy__aG3wDM3VygJ3ioTCrnCevlNJSIpbcHmG9GvtJQ/s320/SwissLaserCommExperiment.webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">ETH Zurich test site</td></tr></tbody></table>Researchers at ETH Zürich <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-023-01201-7/">have transmitted data</a> from a mountaintop to their lab 53 kilometers away at up to 0.94 Tbit/s/channel. (Note that the top of the stratosphere is only 50 km from the ground). They adjust for atmospheric variance using sophisticated algorithms and terminals with adaptive optics that can correct the wave phase 1,500 times per second. Their technology can scale up to 40 channels and they are working on more efficient modulation schemes.</div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The ETH Zürich transmission was from a fixed point on top of a mountain to their lab – how about from a moving satellite? LEO satellites move across the sky at an angular tracking rate of ∼1 deg/s and researchers at the University of Western Australia have <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-22027-0#auth-Shane_M_-Walsh-Aff1">demonstrated that they can maintain contact</a> with a drone moving back and forth at that rate. </div><div><br /></div><div>In Ukraine, SpaceX Starlink has demonstrated both the <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-starlink-in-ukraine-week-later.html">military value</a> of satellite Internet and the <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/04/china-and-taiwan-recognize-starlinks.html">drawback of being dependent</a> on a private company.</div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirDehmCkG1xS2TTzzQb2nZpaxMcrvFiIFa7D-AbQ3ts-ZKhUn31ddiQbHO_URhEXiMpUyTPmmxMYALfrxM7Jmc5zZAUmPRbZKGbpdKgWv5kHsiKap4sNZwzswd4uHo7yJonJpNZZ2ZWrtBFuQ3gk32t6f7sTTm7d7v_W1ooC3THAGWSyVggwDtEg/s1619/transportLayer.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="1619" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirDehmCkG1xS2TTzzQb2nZpaxMcrvFiIFa7D-AbQ3ts-ZKhUn31ddiQbHO_URhEXiMpUyTPmmxMYALfrxM7Jmc5zZAUmPRbZKGbpdKgWv5kHsiKap4sNZwzswd4uHo7yJonJpNZZ2ZWrtBFuQ3gk32t6f7sTTm7d7v_W1ooC3THAGWSyVggwDtEg/s320/transportLayer.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">SDA Tracking Layer constellation (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Development_Agency">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>The Space Development Agency (SDA) of the Space Force is developing two constellations, a <a href="https://www.sda.mil/tracking/">Tracking Layer constellation</a> for warning of, tracking, and targeting advanced missile threats and a <a href="https://www.sda.mil/transport/">Transport Layer constellation</a> providing connectivity to the full range of warfighter platforms. </div><div><br /></div><div>There will be ISLLs, <a href="https://www.sda.mil/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SDA-OCT-Standard-v3.0.pdf">using SDA standard optical communication terminals</a>, within and between the early constellations. The early satellites will use RF links to the ground, but <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/sda-launches-13-more-tranche-0-data-relay-missile-tracking-sats-for-warfighter-immersion/">optical links are planned</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4pebuFk4PsVQN0jwfFDA66guSF9HEN2Y_QSB841WVxHNQDb1H1odn2z68bX0EZEZRuaBtv9103NHKRnbTAEoe4rGDZfp6aHoHz5LyVt8D3vP0jquUa_rWSSvs8iN_90KOFw1IbLWlrSsVXgNloA-WNrhtkXCrM7VO4CDuLfl7D5G_Ah0HsEndSQ/s1536/TrackingLayer.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="578" data-original-width="1536" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4pebuFk4PsVQN0jwfFDA66guSF9HEN2Y_QSB841WVxHNQDb1H1odn2z68bX0EZEZRuaBtv9103NHKRnbTAEoe4rGDZfp6aHoHz5LyVt8D3vP0jquUa_rWSSvs8iN_90KOFw1IbLWlrSsVXgNloA-WNrhtkXCrM7VO4CDuLfl7D5G_Ah0HsEndSQ/s320/TrackingLayer.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Tracking plus transport to intercept missiles with planned<br />optical links to the ground (<a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2020/10/sda-missile-tracking-a-strategic-win-for-l3harris-spacex/">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>Space Force policy is to <a href="https://www.airforcetimes.com/battlefield-tech/space/2023/10/19/space-force-finalizes-plan-for-commercial-surge-capacity-during-crisis/">scale up its use of commercial capabilities</a> and <a href="https://mynaric.com/">Mynaric</a> has been awarded Tracking and Transport Layer contracts for their <a href="https://mynaric.com/products/space/condor-mk3/">CONDOR Mk3</a> optical terminal. <a href="https://spacenews.com/caci-optical-terminals-pass-initial-tests-required-for-space-development-agency-satellites/">CACI International</a> and <a href="https://spacenews.com/tesat-optical-terminals-selected-for-lockheed-martin-satellites-pass-ground-tests/">Tesat</a> terminals have also been certified and will be used -- standards enable competition.</div><div><br /></div><div>Mynaric has also been selected <a href="https://mynaric.com/news/space-development-agency-taps-mynaric-for-optical-ground-station-project/">to participate in a demonstration</a> of links between various space-based optical terminals and an optical ground station they will design. </div><div><br /></div><div>The SDA is also working with <a href="https://www.aalyria.com/">Aalyria</a>, a startup with two products, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/aalyria-space-internet-startup-with.html">Tightbeam and Spacetime</a>, that are based on intellectual property acquired from Google. </div><div><br /></div><div>Tightbeam is an optical communication technology that sounds similar to that of ETH Zürich. Using adaptive mirrors and proprietary algorithms, they have transferred data to and from a local mountain at 400 Gbps per channel, (They can use four channels simultaneously). They recently signed a <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231024690534/en/Aalyria-and-HICO-sign-MOU-to-Deploy-High-Speed-Laser-Communications-Capability-Across-Hundreds-of-Commercial-Ships-Worldwide">maritime contract</a> for connectivity "starting at" 100 Gbps. </div><div><br /></div><div>Tightbeam is only available through Spacetime, an extremely ambitious network operating system for controlling fixed and mobile assets and the links between them on Earth, in the air, and in space. Spacetime runs a simulation of the network and if an upcoming problem is predicted -- for example a weather event or an airplane banking -- <a href="https://www.kratosdefense.com/constellations/podcasts/hybrid-space-architecture-digital-twins-and-free-space-optics">Spacetime will reconfigure the network to route around it in 200 ms</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>(Spacetime is open source with open APIs and Spacetime networks can “federate,” accessing each other’s assets to create a “network of networks.” Sound familiar? APIs are open and they hope to establish standards -- reminiscent of Ethernet vs early proprietary LAN technology. I recommend <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH20eXsmHtI&t=1274s">watching this Spcetime presentation</a>).</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.intelsat.com/">Intelsat</a> has provided geostationary satellite communication since the 1960s and is also working with Aalyria on multi-orbit service and <a href="https://www.intelsat.com/newsroom/intelsat-aalyria-sign-deal-to-advance-multi-orbit-connectivity/">space-to-ground optical communication</a>. (They are also considering a medium Earth orbit constellation -- could federating with SES's mPower constellation be an alternative to creating their own)?</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>I searched for and found two Chinese optical space-ground experiments, <a href="https://insidegnss.com/beidou-conducts-laser-communication-experiment-steps-ahead-of-u-s-could-improve-satnav-accuracy/">one by Beidou in 2021</a> and <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-changguang-satellite-demonstrates-space-to-ground-laser-links/">a recent test</a> by The Chinese Academy of Sciences with a 10 Gbps transmission rate. I checked with Blaine Curcio, an expert on Chinese space, and he does not know of other tests.</div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>Ground infrastructure</b></div><div><br /></div><div>If projects like the above succeed in developing cost-effective space-ground optical communication technology, we will need significant investment in well-designed ground infrastructure. Optical antennas can be added to existing RF ground stations or new optical ground stations can be built.</div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgem3c77VTwRrhPV9Gtb4cBrZwOaeGt4a2sbKSSR7nKeGBr28VCL1TSnrELQVptGVdZ5WZxj2ttWYg19lacCgFas0D4N3ibOVIkdmAOesCP8D90vQQAxPLbShfb8xz0OaniHeiydHNWnS7UnjzD66VNNK1u3Q8xxXASaIPF9gSygmQhLKxDvlcGHQ/s850/Global-spatial-distribution-of-the-average-cloud-cover-of-Sentinel-2A-and-Sentinel-2B%20(1).png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="850" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgem3c77VTwRrhPV9Gtb4cBrZwOaeGt4a2sbKSSR7nKeGBr28VCL1TSnrELQVptGVdZ5WZxj2ttWYg19lacCgFas0D4N3ibOVIkdmAOesCP8D90vQQAxPLbShfb8xz0OaniHeiydHNWnS7UnjzD66VNNK1u3Q8xxXASaIPF9gSygmQhLKxDvlcGHQ/s320/Global-spatial-distribution-of-the-average-cloud-cover-of-Sentinel-2A-and-Sentinel-2B%20(1).png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">World cloud cover map (<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Global-spatial-distribution-of-the-average-cloud-cover-of-Sentinel-2A-and-Sentinel-2B_fig3_330891168">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>Augmenting existing ground stations makes sense if they are in suitable locations because they already have real estate, power, and Internet connectivity. For example, SpaceX <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?ll=16.836207149593214%2C-71.77214881347459&z=2&mid=1805q6rlePY4WZd8QMOaNe2BqAgFkYBY">has 75 gateways</a> in North America, several of which are in arid regions of northern Mexico and the US southwest.</div><div><br /></div><div>New ground stations with optical gateways will also be needed. They should be in relatively cloud-free places and, if possible, near centers of demand and locations with access to high-speed terrestrial Internet connections and power. The current locations of astronomical observatories might be considered.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP7ZfCTGPDz3r-Qhui2jpPx84M68JqWKYDS1Kd5p2x8KSduPXmOqhfpjaL3eBKgRMM1lnYWRqes8o2hm891aeiyCmqcngUwmifjw4DV8mGZEBpb5iZn13djPoPyXE5lR115tYgvBmp4PgE_wQJr92qNEvBrOxGCrjqhARw9ZFlOnYA79QW2oFxwA/s1354/AfricanGroundStations.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1354" data-original-width="1271" height="139" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP7ZfCTGPDz3r-Qhui2jpPx84M68JqWKYDS1Kd5p2x8KSduPXmOqhfpjaL3eBKgRMM1lnYWRqes8o2hm891aeiyCmqcngUwmifjw4DV8mGZEBpb5iZn13djPoPyXE5lR115tYgvBmp4PgE_wQJr92qNEvBrOxGCrjqhARw9ZFlOnYA79QW2oFxwA/w130-h139/AfricanGroundStations.png" width="130" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">African gateways</td></tr></tbody></table>One of the United Nations <a href="https://sdgs.un.org/goals">Sustainable Development Goals</a> is "to build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation" -- to reduce the digital divide. The needs of underserved areas should also be considered in locating ground stations. Today, SpaceX <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?ll=-5.370329856382185%2C19.05538908367857&z=4&mid=1805q6rlePY4WZd8QMOaNe2BqAgFkYBY">has only two RF ground stations in Africa</a>, and there are arid regions in the north and south that might be suitable locations for optical ground stations.</div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjW1KVfsMb5F9FGI0uJ_w4D8CiNzZ7KI8Q971FiIkO9eFFB6-WrTSqbtlEFCWbKeepDVc_t95GwxplqbSP94zZEpaYXXPzj0kao97PlZWq9O4b0j9cahfyUpOZZ89aGnmCEOo7fT_HK_tVXu5Jg3atES5c7TxWZhyphenhyphen8IVMnPf_n6FbduGsedBZCtw/s2021/ISLLPath.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="2021" height="125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjW1KVfsMb5F9FGI0uJ_w4D8CiNzZ7KI8Q971FiIkO9eFFB6-WrTSqbtlEFCWbKeepDVc_t95GwxplqbSP94zZEpaYXXPzj0kao97PlZWq9O4b0j9cahfyUpOZZ89aGnmCEOo7fT_HK_tVXu5Jg3atES5c7TxWZhyphenhyphen8IVMnPf_n6FbduGsedBZCtw/s320/ISLLPath.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">ISLL path between arid areas in Mexico and Africa (<a href="https://starlink.sx/">source</a>).<br />Such opportunities will increase as ISLLs proliferate.</td></tr></tbody></table>Even if locations are carefully selected, routing around unfavorable weather or other atmospheric problems will occur at times. That will be facilitated by the proliferation of ISLLs. Furthermore, the addition of ISLLs to sharply inclined orbits will facilitate routing around winter in the northern and southern hemispheres.</div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>Addendum</b></div><div><br /></div><div>This post is based on a presentation at a recent <a href="https://www.intgovforum.org/en/content/igf-2023-ws-307-data-governance-in-broadband-satellite-services">UN Internet Governance Forum panel</a> but it has been significantly revised and extended. You can get a copy of the revised PowerPoint presentation <a href="https://1drv.ms/p/s!AgJScijHH9oKh-Fh7XGgUnlJBADNoQ?e=zbFue5">here</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>The presentation includes a Frequency terminology cheat sheet.</div></div></div></div><div><br /></div><div>For an excellent tutorial on the properties of laser light, <a href="https://www.nagwa.com/en/explainers/570180938352/">click here</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Thanks to Brian Barrit of Aalyria and Shane Walsh of The University of Western Australia for their input.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 11/3/2023</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;">NASA's ILLUMA-T optical terminal </span><a href="https://www.space.com/nasa-illuma-t-laser-communication-relay-ready-to-launch-crs-29" style="font-size: 16px;">will be delivered to the International Space Station</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;"> in a SpaceX Cargo Dragon launch scheduled for no earlier than November 5. Once installed on the exterior of the space station </span><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/technology/space-comms/nasas-first-two-way-end-to-end-laser-communications-system/" style="font-size: 16px;">it will enable two-way communication</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;"> through the data relay satellite mentioned above to and from optical ground stations in Hawaii and California at 1.2 Gbps.</span></div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-38218802254075852142023-09-18T11:42:00.002-07:002024-02-26T14:33:06.787-08:00Will Telesat survive?<p>In 2017, Telesat, an established Canadian geostationary satellite operator, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2017/11/telesat-fourth-satellite-internet.html">announced a planned low-Earth orbit Internet service constellation</a>. The plan called for 117 satellites with inter-satellite laser links in a mix of inclined and polar orbits, enabling global coverage. They planned to <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/05/spacex-starlink-vs-telesat-lightspeed.html">ignore the consumer market</a> and designed for the enterprise, government, mobile backhaul, mobility, and rural community markets. The mass of their production satellites would be roughly four times that of SpaceX's first-generation satellites. Telesat orbited their first test satellite a month before SpaceX. </p><p>Today, there are over 5,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and Telesat plans to begin launching production satellites in 2026 and <a href="https://www.telesat.com/press/press-releases/telesat-and-spacex-announce-14-launch-agreement-for-advanced-telesat-lightspeed-leo-satellites/">won't begin service until 2027</a>. How did Telesat fall so far behind?</p><p>Unlike SpaceX, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2017/02/two-approaches-to-routers-in-space.html">which is fully integrated</a>, Telesat sought vendors for satellite manufacturing, antennas, and launch service, and spent time and money on collaborative design with potential contractors and soliciting and evaluating bids. In February 2021, <a href="https://www.thalesgroup.com/en/worldwide/space/press-release/thales-alenia-space-selected-telesat-build-its-broadband-298">Telesat selected Thales Alenia Space</a> as the prime contractor for an initial constellation of 298 satellites. (Musk's integrated approach to manufacturing cars or rockets is <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2017/07/does-tesla-3-mark-inflection-point-or.html">reminiscent of Henry Ford)</a></p><p></p>In 2022, Covid, supply chain shortages, inflation, and financing difficulties, led Telesat <a href="https://advanced-television.com/2022/08/08/telesat-still-no-word-on-lightspeed-budget/">to cut the constellation to 198 satellites</a>. The schedule slippage raised concerns over Telesat's spectrum licenses (they will have to apply for an extension), and they needed additional capital while their geostationary satellite revenue was declining slightly. Telesat stock, which was offered at $40 per share was trading for a fourth of its initial price and bonds were trading well below par. <p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSv9f9suZFPS_6RQ3i-Oxx_cEBfBbRHgKcrItYdO4nbYh2xVYq_G9208JFcziBbEwxKzRdfrN6oMVldgqDEodQMQe4F7lSWfgLNY8dCeEFxlX37DiVrHjInQb9uZ5C93nkwHmQjckCIwWw9Mlc6XMMWvI87J8cKZ804cDb8CEn1oaQoFX_QxOKEg/s1371/TelesatStock.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1371" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSv9f9suZFPS_6RQ3i-Oxx_cEBfBbRHgKcrItYdO4nbYh2xVYq_G9208JFcziBbEwxKzRdfrN6oMVldgqDEodQMQe4F7lSWfgLNY8dCeEFxlX37DiVrHjInQb9uZ5C93nkwHmQjckCIwWw9Mlc6XMMWvI87J8cKZ804cDb8CEn1oaQoFX_QxOKEg/s320/TelesatStock.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The stock price doubled with the Hail Mary announcements. </td></tr></tbody></table>Telesat recently announced two decisions that Tim Farrar, President of TMF Associates, characterizes as a Hail Mary play. <p></p><p>Last month, MDA, which had been selected <a href="https://mda.space/en/article/mda-selected-for-major-role-on-telesat-lightspeed">to provide Telesat antennas</a> last year, <a href="https://mda.space/en/article/mda-selected-as-prime-satellite-contractor-for-telesat/">replaced Thales Alenia Space as the prime contractor</a> and manufacturer of the satellites. Telesat expects the new satellites to be about 750 kg -- around the mass of SpaceX's second-generation "Mini" satellites. With these changes, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-telesat-mda-deal-lightspeed-satellite/#:~:text=But%20the%20effort%20hit%20a%20snag%20when,issues%20increased%20the%20expected%20cost%20to%20US$5.5%2Dbillion.">Telesat has funding for the first 156 satellites</a> with the remainder to be paid for from revenue once 156 are in service. </p><p>This month, Telesat announced that they <a href="https://www.telesat.com/press/press-releases/telesat-and-spacex-announce-14-launch-agreement-for-advanced-telesat-lightspeed-leo-satellites/">had contracted with SpaceX for fourteen launches</a> starting in 2026. (Note that <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-to-launch-satellites-for.html">SpaceX is also launching satellites for competitor OneWeb</a> and Amazon <a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/09/pension-fund-sues-jeff-bezos-and-amazon-for-not-using-falcon-9-rockets/">is being sued by shareholders</a> for not considering SpaceX to launch their competing Project Kuiper satellites).</p><p>Telesat has lost valuable time. The delay has given SpaceX time to sign over 1.5 million customers, enter the non-consumer markets Telesat is focusing on, and begin launching their second-generation satellites equipped with inter-satellite laser links in both polar and inclined orbits. OneWeb will also be in service and competing with Telesat by 2026. Telesat also says that, despite having geostationary satellites, they will not provide multi-orbit service, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/oneweb-and-intelsat-sign-first-multi.html">while others will</a>. </p><p>I was on a podcast panel a while back with a Canadian colleague, and he believes the Canadian government will keep Telesat going if needed. I hope Telesat completes its Hail Mary pass -- we need all the competition we can get and the government and military <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/elon-musk-starlink-internet-satellite-ukraine/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWFzb24iOiJnaWZ0IiwibmJmIjoxNjkzMzY4MDAwLCJpc3MiOiJzdWJzY3JpcHRpb25zIiwiZXhwIjoxNjk0NzUwMzk5LCJpYXQiOjE2OTMzNjgwMDAsImp0aSI6IjBkZmI3NzBmLTMyYzUtNGIxZS1hMWMwLWE2MjFmZWEyNmJlZCIsInVybCI6Imh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9vcGluaW9ucy8yMDIzLzA4LzMwL2Vsb24tbXVzay1zdGFybGluay1pbnRlcm5ldC1zYXRlbGxpdGUtdWtyYWluZS8ifQ.I81naj4cpvTX-3bMCkx33kxKGJsVbRzT8jc4dbfZs4E">need alternatives to Starlink</a>.</p><p><b>Update 10/19/2023</b></p><p><a href="https://advanced-television.com/2023/10/18/telesat-explains-lightspeed-benefits/">Telesat explains the benefits of its Lightspeed constellation</a> over rival LEO broadband constellations.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT5HyK3xt-aybEtZZpVIPTZW63tvFdpskh7Sewc1uaA7c9aP-9S8QXnV8bYHh9AE_0_Ev1C4IoVTp6RKk_fXZoK_tAFJoLoEfp5tJOgqQw9QoedGchQ3r_Ks-imNvWN14CkWEvo5jt7ZqMt4OBh1caiP69gATD6NvxQJV-Fh9sDR0hNP_PwAJTMQ/s1356/TelesatStock2.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="539" data-original-width="1356" height="127" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT5HyK3xt-aybEtZZpVIPTZW63tvFdpskh7Sewc1uaA7c9aP-9S8QXnV8bYHh9AE_0_Ev1C4IoVTp6RKk_fXZoK_tAFJoLoEfp5tJOgqQw9QoedGchQ3r_Ks-imNvWN14CkWEvo5jt7ZqMt4OBh1caiP69gATD6NvxQJV-Fh9sDR0hNP_PwAJTMQ/s320/TelesatStock2.png" width="320" /></a></div>Lightspeed satellites orbit at higher altitudes than the others therefore each satellite can serve a larger area with fewer gateways, handoffs are less frequent, and collision risk is lower.</li><li>Each satellite has four inter-satellite antennas, creating a fixed mesh in space (SpaceX satellites have three).</li><li>There are only 198 satellites, but Lightspeed antennas can provide nearly 300,000 beams and aggregate up to 15 Gbps within a hot spot like an airport.</li><li>They will offer service-level agreements including committed information rates.</li><li>They will work with existing service providers and equipment manufacturers. </li></ul><p></p><p>These points are intended to differentiate Telesat from SpaceX, which has a head start in consumer and non-consumer markets, but the stock market is not impressed.</p><p><b>Update 2/26/2024</b></p><p><a href="https://www.avanti.space/">Avanti Communication</a>, a geostationary satellite operator (GSO) serving government and enterprises in Africa and Europe and Telesat have signed a memorandum of understanding to provide multi-orbit Internet service. Avanti will be marketing Lightspeed service, but the two constellations will operate independently and will not be federating using Aalyria Spacetime. </p><p>GSOs are diversifying by launching non-GSO constellations (SES and Telesat) or buying a low--Earth orbit (LEO) company (Eutelsat-OneWeb). Avanti had decided to market Lightspeed, giving them a LEO product and giving Telesat a customer. Still, Telesat stock continues to fall.</p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-19471569932012066342023-07-20T10:52:00.010-07:002023-11-01T10:40:34.816-07:00Google Bard fails to answer satellite Internet questions<p><i>Bard made false, inconsistent statements, overlooked pertinent evidence, and overlooked expertise.</i></p><p>In <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/06/will-electronically-steered-antennas.html">an earlier post</a>, I asked whether electronically steered antennas (ESAs) would replace parabolic antennas in satellite ground stations. I did some research and concluded that it is likely that they will. Next, <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/06/using-chatgpt-in-journalism-example-in.html">I discussed the same question with ChatGPT</a> and, while it made several false statements, it made a relevant point that I had overlooked. The relevant addition was positive, but the errors were troublesome, so I decided to try ChatGPT's competitor Google Bard.</p><p>Since the <i>P </i>in Chat GPT stands for "pre-trained," I began by asking Bard if it was more up-to-date than ChatGPT and it replied, "Bard is able to access the internet in real-time, while ChatGPT-4 is limited to a dataset that only goes up to late 2021." It added that it had last been updated on June 7, 2023.</p><p>That was encouraging since antenna technology has improved since late 2021 and at least two new products incorporating ESAs have been announced since that time, <a href="https://spacenews.com/u-s-space-force-will-be-the-first-customer-for-bluehalos-mobile-ground-station/#:~:text=U.S.%20Space%20Force%20will%20be%20the%20first%20customer%20for%20BlueHalo's%20mobile%20ground%20station,-BlueHalo%20last%20year&text=COLORADO%20SPRINGS%20%E2%80%94%20The%20U.S.%20Space,array%20antennas%20developed%20by%20BlueHalo.">BlueHalo's mobile ground station</a> and <a href="https://www.thinkom.com/thinkom-and-ksat-explore-new-gateway-array/">Thinkom's gateway array</a>.</p><p>But my optimism faded when <span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">I began by asking Bard to "</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">list the advantages of electronically steered antennas over parabolic antennas in ground stations for LEO Internet service constellations"</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"> and then asked it to "</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">list the advantages of parabolic antennas over electronically steered antennas</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">." The results of the two queries </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh9ME6kucmQcvGOhYvQ?e=P8Zfq5"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">are shown here</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">The replies are less complete and specific than those given by ChatGPT, and they are inconsistent -- Bard credits both ESAs and parabolic antennas as being cheaper. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Furthermore, there was no indication that Bard was aware of the BlueHalo or Thinkom products, so I asked three leading questions:</p><ul><li><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Have there been recent satellite ground station innovations?</span></li><li><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Any new hardware?</span></li><li><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Any innovative new products?</span></li></ul><div>It did not mention either BlueHalo or Thinkom, but after the third try it suggested that I try a <i>Google search</i> for "Innovative new products for satellite ground station" and that returned many links, including one to the Thinkom array of antennas.</div><div>My next query demonstrated an extreme lack of awareness. I asked if China's Long March 5B rocket would be used to launch their <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/02/update-on-china-satnets-guowang.html">GuoWang satellite constellation</a>. Bard <a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh9VYf4qJJB2QF4SQ5w?e=iOqVmq">answered that it would</a> and added that it "will be the first time that a country has launched such a large constellation of satellites." </div><div>Evidently, GuoWang is more frequently associated with Chinese propaganda than the SpaceX Starlink constellation in the Bard training set. (Garbage in, garbage out).</div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrR00MIuMXfxLBbrgTSXwhK2XrVd7oGFrtDZFYBm7mV9FwSVKjaJbikE14dId6RvXbrAT1dtsPcQmY5M19g8n26usmiK-jII31ySzVCe13at159sFFIk8O9A5MXHh2N-poTCWzbmweCwKTDI4Y_NWa6mgOm5ejo_brFV0TIymE5IxnjFAlxrsVcg/s2248/BardBogusBiography.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1785" data-original-width="2248" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrR00MIuMXfxLBbrgTSXwhK2XrVd7oGFrtDZFYBm7mV9FwSVKjaJbikE14dId6RvXbrAT1dtsPcQmY5M19g8n26usmiK-jII31ySzVCe13at159sFFIk8O9A5MXHh2N-poTCWzbmweCwKTDI4Y_NWa6mgOm5ejo_brFV0TIymE5IxnjFAlxrsVcg/s320/BardBogusBiography.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Red and blue text indicates errors (<a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh9EqHNk76DqSC2ubKg?e=jilxMc">source</a>)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br /><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table>A final example illustrates Bard's inability to recognize expertise. I asked Bard "Who is Larry Press<i>", </i>and it answered with the error-ridden professional biography shown here. The red text highlights statements that are false and the blue highlights work done in collaboration with others, not by me alone.<div><br /><div>One can understand some of the errors. For example, I got my Ph.D. from UCLA, not USC, but I did teach at USC for a while and that may be more frequently mentioned in the training set. Similarly, I have been on several editorial boards, but I no longer am. I am an expert on my own biography and a simple <span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Google Search would have found a somewhat dated, but accurate short biography on the Web. </span></div><div><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">I was </span>also disappointed in the promise that Bard would provide links to references. It only cites references when it "<a href="https://bard.google.com/faq">directly quotes at length from a webpage</a>". I only saw one reference during my experimentation, and it was irrelevant.</div><div>"Artificial intelligence" programs have succeeded over the years in many specific tasks. As an undergraduate, I had the privilege of taking a course from Herbert Simon and learned about his chess-playing and theorem-proving programs. Arthur Samuel's <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5392560">checker playing program</a> learned to beat him, and expert systems assist doctors in making some diagnoses. I even wrote an interactive program based on <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Experiments_in_Induction/C9UKAAAAMAAJ?hl=en">concept acquisition models</a> that <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/111_4lJtx8zzv6Y22A51j_eUmQhUa8NxJ/view">assisted researchers in multivariate data analysis</a>. (It could be an Internet service today).</div><div>Artificial neural nets have also had success in specific tasks from recognizing zip codes on envelopes to playing Go and Chess and helping robots do back flips and they will succeed at other tasks like <a href="https://blogs.windows.com/windowsdeveloper/2023/05/23/bringing-the-power-of-ai-to-windows-11-unlocking-a-new-era-of-productivity-for-customers-and-developers-with-windows-copilot-and-dev-home/">helping Microsoft Windows users</a> or writing poetry. (I submitted <a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh9QFtbnmjQUzy2UdUw?e=VH3zMd">haikus written by Bard and ChatGPT</a> to the AI detector <a href="https://app.gptzero.me/app/welcome">GPTZero</a> and it <span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">reported that they w</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">ere "likely to have been written entirely by a human"). </span></div><div><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">But none of these programs are generally intelligent. </span></div><div><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The illusion of intelligence results from the ability to generate responsive grammatical sentences in a conversation, but that is a low bar. Many years ago, I placed Teletype terminals in a public library and people conversed, sometimes for hours, with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA">ELIZA</a>, a simple simulation of a non-directive therapist. You can try ELIZA for yourself here. </span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The common practice of referring to errors as "hallucinations" furthers the illusion of intelligence.</span></div></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><b>Update 9/27/2023</b></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">I could not recall the verb "scrub" for navigating through a timeline, so I asked ChatGPT and Bard for help.
ChatGPT got it; </span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a href="https://chat.openai.com/c/6896ce83-d324-4a04-bb99-357c0da90ddf">https://chat.openai.com/c/6896ce83-d324-4a04-bb99-357c0da90ddf</a></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Bard blew it:
<a href="https://bard.google.com/chat/525ec7146864588a">https://bard.google.com/chat/525ec7146864588a</a></span></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 10/25/2023</b></div><div><br /></div><div>A colleague told me that Bard had cited him as the author of a journal article. I searched for it using Google and could not find it so I asked him about it. It turned out that he had never written an article with the cited title and that the journal it cited had gone out of print two years before the cited publication date.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-55325133660718528862023-06-16T11:38:00.016-07:002023-06-27T08:45:51.596-07:00Will Electronically Steered Antennas Replace Parabolic Antennas in Satellite Ground Stations? (ChatGPT-Assisted Version)<p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In a </span><a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/06/will-electronically-steered-antennas.html" style="font-family: inherit;">previous post</a><span style="font-family: inherit;">, I asked whether electronically steered antennas (ESAs) would replace parabolic antennas in satellite ground stations. I read a few articles suggested by others and by Google search, used some common sense, produced a list of advantages of ESAs, and concluded that it was likely they would eventually replace parabolic antennas for many applications. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Many of the articles I found were written by companies selling products or services and I'm not an antenna expert -- more a curious journalist. </span>ChatGPT has access to the entire Internet, and I wondered if it <span style="font-family: inherit;">could have helped me improve what I wrote or convinced me to reach a different conclusion, so I queried it three times</span></p><p>Since I had listed the advantages of ESAs over parabolic antennas, I began by asking ChatGPT to <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><i>list the advantages
of electronically steered antennas over parabolic antennas for satellite ground
stations.</i></span></p><p>In my post, I listed twelve bullet-point advantages. The ChatGPT answer was more verbose, beginning with a restatement of the question and listing and elaborating on seven advantages. The elaborated replies included all but one of my bullet points, <i>spectral efficiency,</i> and it included an advantage that I had overlooked, <i>interference mitigation, </i>and explained why that was so.</p><p>In spite of these glitches, ChatGPT reached nearly the same conclusion as I had, saying "<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">It's worth noting that while
electronically steered antennas offer numerous advantages, they also have some
limitations, such as higher cost and complexity compared to parabolic antennas.
However, ongoing advancements in technology are continuously addressing these
challenges, making electronically steered antennas increasingly attractive for
satellite ground station applications."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Since it had failed to mention spectral efficiency, I asked, "What about spectral efficiency?" and it replied with an apology for missing the point and went on to list and elaborate on five ways in which ESA made more efficient use of bandwidth.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh85DgweSuptT9AZgOQ?e=Tpnhtp">You can see the dialog here</a>. </span></p><p>Since ChatGPT generally agreed with me, I asked it to play devil's advocate and <i>list the advantages</i><span class="TextRun SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-contrast="auto" lang="EN-US" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW261733913 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;"><i> of parabolic antennas over electronically steered antennas for satellite ground </i></span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW261733913 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;"><i>station</i>s</span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW261733913 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;">.</span></span><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;">Perhaps I was biased by the experience of having written my earlier post, but I found myself questioning some of its cited advantages. For example, one was "wide coverage" but that would not apply to Thinkom's array of arrays. Another was "simplicity ... making them easier to manufacture, install and maintain." ChatGPT was contradicting its previous response in which it said ESAs were more reliable and required because parabolic antennas "have mechanical parts that can be subject to wear and require regular maintenance."</span></span></p><p><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;">I also realized that my question was a bit off -- it focused on the antenna rather than the entire ground station -- so I asked it to "<i>list the advantages of satellite ground stations that use parabolic antennas over satellite ground stations that use electronically steered antennas"</i>. One of the advantages it listed was suitability for high-frequency Ka and Ku bands, but both Thinkom and BlueHalo use those bands and Thinkom is targeting even higher frequencies. It also repeated the simplicity advantage.</span></span></p><p><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh85WcYIRL3C5xpTZfw?e=qoktdG">You can see the dialog here</a>.</span></p><p><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;">Finally, I asked the title question from my previous post -- <i>will electronically steered antennas replace parabolic antennas in satellite ground stations</i>?</span></p><p><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;">It listed points under three headings</span><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;"> -- advantages of ESAs, limitations of ESAs, and application-specific considerations and concluded that:</span></p><p><span class="EOP SCXW261733913 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233117":false,"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335559738":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;">"While</span><span class="TextRun SCXW226335405 BCX0" data-contrast="none" lang="EN-US" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-ligatures: none; line-height: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW226335405 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;"> there is potential for Electronically Steered Antennas to replace parabolic antennas in certain satellite ground station applications, it is not a straightforward or immediate transition. The adoption of ESAs will depend on factors such as </span><span class="NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW226335405 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-image: var(--urlContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2, url('data:image/svg+xml;base64,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')); background-position: 0% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;">technology</span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW226335405 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;"> advancements, cost reductions, performance improvements, and specific application requirements.</span></span><span class="EOP SCXW226335405 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":300,"335559739":100,"335559740":240}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space: pre-wrap;">"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">It reversed itself once more by listing improved reliability as an advantage of ESAs, but the conclusion was similar to the conclusion in my original post. It also revealed a shortcoming in my formulation of the question. Since I have been writing a lot about Internet service constellations, I overlooked other applications in my previous post and did not specify that I was interested in broadband Internet service. (A human editor would have known that I was writing for an Internet-related publication, would have been aware of my previous writing, and assumed I was focused on Internet applications).</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">It pointed out that parabolic antennas had an advantage for deep space communication, so I asked a more fully qualified question -- </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><i>Will electronically steered antennas replace parabolic antennas in ground stations for LEO, MEO, and GEO Internet service constellations</i></span></span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">?</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px; font-variant-ligatures: none; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The reply seemed vaguer and non-committal this time, but was also similar to mine:</span></span></p><p><span class="TextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" data-contrast="auto" lang="EN-US" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-ligatures: none; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space-collapse: preserve;" xml:lang="EN-US"><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;">"Considering these factors, it</span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;"> is likely that a combination of ESAs and parabolic antennas will be employed in future ground stations for LEO, MEO, and GEO internet service constellations. The specific configuration and </span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;">utilization</span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;"> of each technology will depend on </span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;">various factors</span><span class="NormalTextRun SCXW267358797 BCX0" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text;">, including cost, performance requirements, deployment scenarios, and network architectures."</span></span><span class="EOP SCXW267358797 BCX0" data-ccp-props="{"134233118":false,"201341983":0,"335551550":0,"335551620":0,"335559739":0,"335559740":259}" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; -webkit-user-drag: none; background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 18.3458px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: text; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> </span></p><p><a href="https://1drv.ms/w/s!AgJScijHH9oKh85dK-OmEuXQJ8JLCg?e=z272ev" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">You can see the dialog here</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Conclusion</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">So, what is the role of ChatGPT in this sort of journalism? It served me as an editor or referee reviewing what I had written. I would have made two changes after getting feedback from ChatGPT -- I would have mentioned that I was focused on LEO, MEO, and GEO Internet service applications, and I would have included </span></span><i>interference mitigation</i> as <span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">one of the advantages of ESAs. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">ChatGPT made a couple of misstatements and did not "know" about </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">the possibility of an array of antennas like that of Thinkom with its wide elevation angle range. To its credit,</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> I liked the way it apologized for overlooking spectral efficiency as an advantage for ESAs and it was an indefatigable and patient interviewee. It was also free (for the time being).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">I consulted ChatGPT after drafting my article, but I could have used it as a research tool before writing. Had I done so, I might have been misled by some of its mistakes and I wouldn't have discovered </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Thinkom's innovation. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Furthermore, its prose was not clear and concise -- I don't think it could pass a Turing Test on writing style. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">In this case, an old-fashioned Internet search engine was a far better pre-writing tool. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">ChatGPT would be improved if it gave links to the sources of its assertions. </span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont, Times New Roman_MSFontService, serif;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Like autocomplete, it generates sentences by repeatedly appending the most probable next word in text documents found on the Internet, so the final string is novel.</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> (That's not the way I generate sentences -- they follow from an idea). Might a list of the documents providing the most words be useful? (<a href="https://searchengineland.com/google-bard-adds-genuine-citations-in-responses-and-more-concise-summaries-423143">Google Bard adds citations</a>, but I've not tried it out yet).</span></p><p>While <span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", "Times New Roman_EmbeddedFont", "Times New Roman_MSFontService", serif; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">ChatGPT </span>helped me, I don't believe a ground station expert would have learned anything new by interacting with it and a beginner like a student writing a term paper would have been misled. The curious journalist was the sweet spot in this case, but this is version 3.5 of ChatGPT, which had a data-cutoff date before BlueHalo and Thinkom announced the products I've mentioned. I'll revisit it when I get access to ChatGPT4.</p><p>PS -- Let me know if you read the dialogs I linked to and notice something I missed,</p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-9291400215162036122023-06-08T11:59:00.010-07:002023-06-08T15:49:03.320-07:00Will electronically steered antennas replace parabolic antennas in satellite ground stations?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjts1eIXsXiu4I12TdCFlgk8DGPTOBHqTMPnQgb9GFGHaKMniIjrnzmU6qTTW3BAZ81NKzYnMb1mGBPICiYUz5KCacY1D1t-ieh1fpgnGuOWtTprbwFYTQ0RoQEeprlUU3IFFUkfWjCgJPmXEEMG79JaLC3g9TJvz0C2052MvRmEGYurRdor0Q/s2560/ThinkomGatwayOnBuilding.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1440" data-original-width="2560" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjts1eIXsXiu4I12TdCFlgk8DGPTOBHqTMPnQgb9GFGHaKMniIjrnzmU6qTTW3BAZ81NKzYnMb1mGBPICiYUz5KCacY1D1t-ieh1fpgnGuOWtTprbwFYTQ0RoQEeprlUU3IFFUkfWjCgJPmXEEMG79JaLC3g9TJvz0C2052MvRmEGYurRdor0Q/w640-h360/ThinkomGatwayOnBuilding.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 10.4px; text-align: left;">ThinKom gateway -- an array of electronically steered arrays</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>Might ChatGPT, which has access to the entire Internet, have come to a different conclusion than me? Stay tuned.</i></div><div><br /></div><div>Three recent developments make me wonder whether we are on the cusp of a shift in satellite ground station technology from parabolic to electronically steered antennas (ESAs). </div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge3Gv2eEOC5gSdxFU47HgQHeS8nVOUCv3V0gLeOdzxdGLviI7C3VnFig0GMWlGq39R0LJHcxbMJSa1Fmqu7YpZSOBaF8O2rA7eKRwAA7Bki8psxVsgk6edGmbEDRXsmOHlIlbCvuWecKKEUAexMTRUFC9x28ArDfzSeJ6XUasdfosgcA64TYo/s2230/BlueHaloLocations.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1234" data-original-width="2230" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge3Gv2eEOC5gSdxFU47HgQHeS8nVOUCv3V0gLeOdzxdGLviI7C3VnFig0GMWlGq39R0LJHcxbMJSa1Fmqu7YpZSOBaF8O2rA7eKRwAA7Bki8psxVsgk6edGmbEDRXsmOHlIlbCvuWecKKEUAexMTRUFC9x28ArDfzSeJ6XUasdfosgcA64TYo/s320/BlueHaloLocations.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">The Space Force Satellite Control Network (<a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-105505.pdf">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div>The U.S. Space Force operates the Satellite Control Network, with 19 parabolic antennas at seven locations around the world. The network was established in 1959 and a <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-105505.pdf">report by the Government Accountability Office</a> found that it should be updated to help the Space Force better manage future efforts. Last year, The Space Force <a href="https://bluehalo.com/press_release/bluehalo-awarded-1-4b-u-s-space-force-contract-to-enable-modernization-of-satellite-operations/">awarded BlueHalo a $1.4 billion contract</a> to modernize space operations using their software-defined ESAs and the <a href="https://www.kratosdefense.com/systems-and-platforms/space-systems/dynamic-ground/platform">OpenSpace software-defined satellite ground system from Kratos</a>. <a href="https://spacenews.com/u-s-space-force-will-be-the-first-customer-for-bluehalos-mobile-ground-station/">This article says</a> they will upgrade 12 "ground stations" starting in 2025, which I assume means they will install 12 ESAs at the seven locations shown here.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>In March, <a href="https://www.thinkom.com/air-force-research-lab-selects-thinkom-for-next-gen-gateway-solution/">the Air Force Research Lab selected ThinKom</a> for its next-generation gateway solution -- an integrated array of ESAs. The following month, ground station operator <a href="https://www.ksat.no/">Kongsberg Satellite Services</a> (KSAT) and ThinKom <a href="https://www.thinkom.com/thinkom-and-ksat-explore-new-gateway-array/">announced a partnership</a> to bring ThinKom’s gateway array to the commercial ground station market. The Air Force contract will help fund the development of the gateway and the partnership plans to have a fully operational system in 2024.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglC7aj9UBkfiDx69NHRyQ8qqcLAzpTErqYnXk5mRvMM89hdN9XG-Sn__I5w2WngMaPdBFPpRUqihmx9GK8Lq8wlkO_YtlV3LfWOmPxqpqrChXkpW9LI_MAfpAp9iBCh8UqVfm888HagHgYAEJv-Z8ZdfBxZmeBXeyejcbpaMdRfktnL_lZyq8/s1534/ThinKomAntenna.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1221" data-original-width="1534" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglC7aj9UBkfiDx69NHRyQ8qqcLAzpTErqYnXk5mRvMM89hdN9XG-Sn__I5w2WngMaPdBFPpRUqihmx9GK8Lq8wlkO_YtlV3LfWOmPxqpqrChXkpW9LI_MAfpAp9iBCh8UqVfm888HagHgYAEJv-Z8ZdfBxZmeBXeyejcbpaMdRfktnL_lZyq8/w320-h255/ThinKomAntenna.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">ThinKom antenna design (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TTi38bM3iw">source video</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div>ThinKom and KSAT are a good match. KSAT has experience operating ground stations with <a href="https://www.ksat.no/ground-network-services/the-ksat-global-ground-station-network/">270 antennas at 26 locations</a> and ThinKom has a hybrid mechanical/phased array antenna design utilizing three rotating platters. Rotating the feed and aperture platters together steers the beam in azimuth; rotating them relative to each other steers beam elevation; and rotating the polarizer platter selects between left and right polarization. The partnership's first commercial "customer" will likely be KSAT itself.</div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, OneWeb will soon be online globally. <a href="https://arcticspace.se/">Arctic Space Technologies</a> is building a 27-antenna ground station for them, and it <a href="https://arcticspace.se/news/oneweb-establishment-at-arctic-space-press-release/">will be operational in the third quarter of this year</a>. Given the short timeline, the antennas will probably be parabolic, but OneWeb <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">is committed to</a> and has <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/oneweb-and-intelsat-sign-first-multi.html">signed a contract</a> for multi-orbit service. I asked about the possibility of ESAs and got no reply.</div><div><br /></div><div>I wrote the following list of advantages of ESAs in ground stations after visiting the sites and reading the articles I've linked to above and using a little common sense:</div><div><ul><li>Reliability (though ThinKom's hybrid antenna may be less reliable than a pure ESA)</li><li>Wide elevation angle range (in a ThinKom array)</li><li>Wideband (<a href="https://www.kratosdefense.com/constellations/articles/bill-milroy-of-thinkom-on-the-multi-multi-world-of-antennas">Thinkom is targeting Q and Vbands</a> -- what about atmospheric interference)?</li><li>Multiple beams</li><li>Instant switching between frequency bands</li><li><a href="https://www.ksat.no/news/news-archive/2023/thinkom-and-ksat-explore-radically-new-approach-to-satellite-ground-stations/">Spectral efficiency</a></li><li>Instant switching between LEO, MEO, and GEO orbits (a "selling point" for OneWeb)</li><li>Fast handoffs between satellites</li><li>Compact and small footprint (<a href="https://www.thinkom.com/announces-multi-beam-phased-array-gateway-antennas/">especially with ThinKom gateway</a>)</li><li>Reduced power requirement</li><li>Lower installation cost</li><li>Portability</li></ul><div><div>Prices may be high today and standards not solidified, but with technical progress and increased production quantities, parabolic ground station antennas seem likely to go the way of vacuum tubes, mag tape, and core memories. </div><div> </div><div>But the articles I read were about ESA projects so the advantages may have been overstated. Might <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt">ChatGPT</a>, which has access to the entire Internet, have done better or come to a different conclusion than me? Stay tuned.</div></div></div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-77945498913466318332023-04-23T21:26:00.002-07:002023-04-24T07:27:45.200-07:00China and Taiwan recognize Starlink's military value<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: left;"></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i>Starlink has a conflict of interest.</i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEu0BJD8hsk6dV5INi2x01tsrCWAS7ZHGqQv9LaMAzDHb40e1P_wfiF-wsV8FGghMXl3gwPMGVE0CzV6TG5Rb_KSCemrwBnBeyHC5qBmXGUbGINmaHj1Bej0bIVO6UHaX1NoY6WoHMgUhZA7hNSPQl97l5Sn6c7B-YXxqO0NV8eNBwpzrdM5w/s1830/EarlyStarlinkTrafficUkraine.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="777" data-original-width="1830" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEu0BJD8hsk6dV5INi2x01tsrCWAS7ZHGqQv9LaMAzDHb40e1P_wfiF-wsV8FGghMXl3gwPMGVE0CzV6TG5Rb_KSCemrwBnBeyHC5qBmXGUbGINmaHj1Bej0bIVO6UHaX1NoY6WoHMgUhZA7hNSPQl97l5Sn6c7B-YXxqO0NV8eNBwpzrdM5w/s320/EarlyStarlinkTrafficUkraine.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Ukrainian Starlink traffic March 6-May 22, 2022 (<a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580572380535001088">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><span>When Russia invaded Ukraine, </span><a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-50-starlink-satellites-launch-february-2022">SpaceX had around 2,000 satellites in orbit</a><span>. It was clear from the first day of the war that a low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellation of around 2,000 satellites</span><span> </span><a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-unprecedented-role-of-internet-in.html">would be a valuable military and civilian asset</a><span>. The first truckload of Starlink terminals </span><a href="https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1498392515262746630">arrived in Ukraine on February 28, 2022</a><span>, four days after the invasion. By March 19,</span><span> </span><a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/five-thousand-spacex-starlink-terminals.html">there were 5,000 terminals in Ukraine</a><span> </span><span>and</span><span> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1521115986711175168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521115986711175168%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2022%2F05%2F02%2Fukraine-official-150000-using-spacexs-starlink-daily.html">150,000 active daily users</a><span> </span><span>by May 2nd.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;">China and Taiwan have both seen the strategic value of 2,000 Starlink satellites.</div><p></p><p></p>Initially, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/01/china-will-be-formidable-satellite.html">China planned two LEO Internet service constellations</a>, but they were abandoned in favor of <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/02/update-on-china-satnets-guowang.html">a single constellation, GuoWang</a>, which would be operated by a state-owned company called China SatNet. Since satellite Internet had been deemed <a href="https://dongfanghour.com/chinas-ambitious-satellite-constellation-plan-merging-hongyan-and-hongyun-into-one-super-constellation/">critical infrastructure</a> China SatNet was not placed under The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), China's main state-owned space conglomerate, but was made an independent entity at the same level as CASC, empowered to select its own government and privately-owned launch providers, satellite producers and other vendors. <p></p><p></p><p>China space consultant Jean Deville thinks it is likely that the GuoWang satellite constellation <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4xQWpBB4ZY">will start to deploy this year on a Long March 5B rocket</a>. The mass of Starlink Gen 2 v 9-1 satellites is 303 kg and the mass to LEO of a Long March 5 is 25,000 kg. If GwoWang's satellites had the same mass, it would take 83 fully packed launches to orbit 2,000 satellites, and doing that in five years would require developing reusability.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-BAHtPRZvtaZDf1PEychfXqKfM5mprFLSNpWdXXZgcezYfvnCc__RHjdT6Y5vobc93xVMrLNuZNZQels56XV94TK3LMNf86OnULuy4uadmiMSNQ7ghG2mAtDTEZ1QLh-WqmP4slWlk1SUBn_BQPNfvJ7B_9BujW8nuzDlMZopykONh9G4zXQ/s1739/ChinaSeesSatelliteThreats.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1126" data-original-width="1739" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-BAHtPRZvtaZDf1PEychfXqKfM5mprFLSNpWdXXZgcezYfvnCc__RHjdT6Y5vobc93xVMrLNuZNZQels56XV94TK3LMNf86OnULuy4uadmiMSNQ7ghG2mAtDTEZ1QLh-WqmP4slWlk1SUBn_BQPNfvJ7B_9BujW8nuzDlMZopykONh9G4zXQ/w320-h206/ChinaSeesSatelliteThreats.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">China sees Starlink as a weapon (<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3178939/china-military-needs-defence-against-potential-starlink-threat">source</a>) </td></tr></tbody></table>The Chinese assessment of Starlink as a military threat is found in articles like:<p></p><p></p><ul><li><a href="http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/OPINIONS_209196/Opinions_209197/10152439.html">Starlink's expansion, military ambitions alert world</a></li><li><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3178939/china-military-needs-defence-against-potential-starlink-threat">China military must be able to destroy Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites if they threaten national security: scientists</a></li><li><a href="https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/25/prc-defense-starlink-countermeasures/">PRC Defense: Starlink Countermeasures</a></li><li><a href="http://www.news.cn/mil/2022-12/22/c_1211711522.htm">From "Starlink" to "Star Shield", the United States' ambitions for space hegemony are clearly revealed</a></li></ul><p>The <a href="https://moda.gov.tw/en/digital-affairs/communications-cyber-resilience/operations/310">Taiwan Ministry of Digital Affairs</a> has noted that since the Russian invasion, Ukraine "has depended on Starlink satellite communications to connect to the world" and <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-seeks-satellite-solutions-undersea-081309722.html">they have an $18 million plan</a> to place satellite receivers in 700 places at home and abroad, to maintain government communications "during emergencies such as natural disasters or wars." The ministry said it was "willing to cooperate with any qualified satellite service provider" and that is wise because Elon Musk would have a conflict of interest in the case of a war between China and Taiwan and we may have already seen evidence of that conflict.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBETqCjf0r0d55b63Zvx9pGI4VjmuSJp4nUAbF0Y2yw_aW2adhZ2O-2MwsVNWjenH3XBDCjCJpAPDoupnJXSjOtcuUr5Px_2W1a8hGEowDpnkNDvMAXoN0MUWpTw17Km0jDGHmsAPSYGQ_BqQole72517kzPQXraL1O1G_GDlyng_qa4x42z4/s998/TaiwanCables2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="998" data-original-width="656" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBETqCjf0r0d55b63Zvx9pGI4VjmuSJp4nUAbF0Y2yw_aW2adhZ2O-2MwsVNWjenH3XBDCjCJpAPDoupnJXSjOtcuUr5Px_2W1a8hGEowDpnkNDvMAXoN0MUWpTw17Km0jDGHmsAPSYGQ_BqQole72517kzPQXraL1O1G_GDlyng_qa4x42z4/w210-h320/TaiwanCables2.png" width="210" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Taiwan's vulnerable undersea cables (<a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>In February 2023, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-curbed-ukraines-use-starlink-internet-drones-company-president-2023-02-09/">SpaceX’s chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell said</a> "We know the military is using [Starlink satellites] for comms, and that's ok ... But our intent was never to have them use it for offensive purposes" and <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/20/ukraine-is-betting-on-drones-to-strike-deep-into-russia">they began geofencing</a> satellites when they were above water or Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine. <p></p><p>In <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/five-thousand-spacex-starlink-terminals.html">March 2022 I wrote</a> that the Ukrainian army was using drones to spot targets and relay their coordinates over Starlink to "the artillery guy and create target acquisition” and they were also using drones equipped with bombs. </p><p>That sounds "offensive" to me, but more likely Shotwell was going along with <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1576969255031296000%7Ctwgr%5E619e7c23df26531987fd1247ffd656a5c51319be%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fenglish.nv.ua%2Flife%2Fmusk-draws-criticism-from-ukraine-groups-on-twitter-after-scandalous-tweet-ukraine-news-50274376.html">the peace plan</a> Elon Musk tweeted calling for Ukraine to cede Crimea and holding UN-supervised elections by the people who remained and were still alive in the "annexed regions."</p><p>More cynically, there may have been pressure from Russia's ally China. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/elon-musk-tesla-shanghai-battery-factory.html#:~:text=For%20Tesla%2C%20Shanghai%20is%20the,as%20quickly%20as%20in%20Shanghai.">Tesla plans a large battery factory in China</a> and <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-production/#:~:text=Tesla%20produced%20nearly%201.37%20million,3%20production%20and%20sales%20figures.">makes</a> and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-NEV-sales-jump-in-2022-with-some-makers-far-out-in-front#:~:text=Meanwhile%2C%20Tesla%20China%20saw%20a,annual%20target%20of%2050%25%20growth.">sells</a> a lot of cars there, and Shotwell knew that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/tesla-china-factory-expansion-plans-in-doubt-amid-data-concerns?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=email&leadSource=uverify%20wall">the Chinese government had stalled Tesla's plan</a> to expand auto production there because of concerns about Starlink in January. (I wonder if Ukraine was discussed during Musk's <a href="https://www.thestreet.com/technology/elon-musk-goes-to-china">recent trip to China</a>).</p><div>The above is speculative and indirect, but the threat to Tesla would be direct if Starlink were to aid Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. (Tesla would be in jeopardy in the case of a Chinese invasion regardless Starlink). Taiwan should be talking with OneWeb, Telesat, Amazon Project Kuiper, and the European Union's <a href="https://circleid.com/posts/20230220-new-eu-satellites-to-protect-government-communications-provide-connectivity-and-surveillance">recently approved IRIS² project</a> and consult the technicians and military people working with Starlink in Ukraine.</div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-7840148420068581472023-03-04T00:37:00.040-08:002023-03-25T21:46:42.194-07:00Connecting every home in Africa -- Starlink backhaul?<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdn9zq1S1vGu99NaAZ3q-mDkYSB_5UjhgzE5r2eNZYdDyEN7fnq7LZ0sybwJczkTW0cVgVIUJos6x8tOFSlUYSOm0sZGvJ_uCJHfUMD-zRgH1HLznKritGHl18I5Ky1FhrIStANL4FB7EBaCNmikXRO_Xsfs_LL-rRtZEjRqsaB2MWcceMkB8/s2048/PoaAntenna.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="2048" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdn9zq1S1vGu99NaAZ3q-mDkYSB_5UjhgzE5r2eNZYdDyEN7fnq7LZ0sybwJczkTW0cVgVIUJos6x8tOFSlUYSOm0sZGvJ_uCJHfUMD-zRgH1HLznKritGHl18I5Ky1FhrIStANL4FB7EBaCNmikXRO_Xsfs_LL-rRtZEjRqsaB2MWcceMkB8/w320-h213/PoaAntenna.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Pia! runs fiber to an area and the "last mile" is wireless.</td></tr></tbody></table>The vision of Kenyan ISP <a href="https://poa.co.ke/">Poa! Internet</a> is "to bring internet to every home in Africa."<div><br /><div>Poa! offers unlimited, uncapped, 4 Mb/s fixed wireless connectivity to homes for 1,500 KSh ($11.64) per month plus a one-time installation fee of 3,500 KSh ($27.16). But wait, there's more. They provide a dual-SSID router and the home SSID is used by trusted family members and the open street SSID is for others. Street users get 100 MB of free data each day and are charged 15 KSh ($.16) per GB with no expiry .data if they exceed 100 MB on a given day</div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRn9kCtkGllX8FCBff2ogy4-g3yRWe5IyKSYrhG3XtImmzuquIxqM53S_Sfjj8pXoomTvkHVY1Olu1qccfssSkdzRUy5u8KrkRadO7DJdYqWtmX6_5DqnWXBklxJG3Kf9Bv_wuuHiFRyUxI3t_iydGHMosz1dihnlVIAqW0RIx-T39M0050VA/s5239/Teletype5.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="5239" data-original-width="3125" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRn9kCtkGllX8FCBff2ogy4-g3yRWe5IyKSYrhG3XtImmzuquIxqM53S_Sfjj8pXoomTvkHVY1Olu1qccfssSkdzRUy5u8KrkRadO7DJdYqWtmX6_5DqnWXBklxJG3Kf9Bv_wuuHiFRyUxI3t_iydGHMosz1dihnlVIAqW0RIx-T39M0050VA/w190-h320/Teletype5.jpg" width="190" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">ASR 33 Teletype</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div>Depending upon your age, 4 Mb/s may sound exceedingly slow, but my first home Internet connection was using an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teletype_Model_33">ASR 33 Teletype</a> that printed ten upper-case characters per second -- about as fast as I could read. This enabled me to use email, Usenet, Telnet, FTP, etc. and, most importantly, <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MiwAK-o-6Cr3OmzY8H5W9WXmnYqqT0sm/view?usp=sharing"><i>to collaborate with remote colleagues</i></a>. My first professional home computer had an 8-bit CPU, 64 KB memory, two 8-inch floppy drives, and a 300-baud modem. It enabled me to quit my day job and program, write and consult -- <i>I owned my own professional tools</i>.</div><div><p></p><p>A low-cost Windows PC and a 4 Mb/s connection would allow all that I did at that time and so much more today -- download software, articles, books, movies, etc., stream <a href="https://help.netflix.com/en/node/306#:~:text=To%20watch%20Netflix%20in%20Full%20HD%2C%20you%20need%3A&text=A%20connection%20speed%20of%20at,set%20to%20Auto%20or%20High">HD 720p video</a>, make voice-over-IP calls, listen to podcasts, read newspapers, etc. and, importantly, <i>create content and invent applications and services that are relevant to Africa.</i> It would be fascinating to conduct a study of Poa! users to see what they are using the Internet for and how it is impacting their lives.</p><p>One thing we know for certain is that people do different things with a computer at home than with a phone on a mobile network or at a Wi-Fi hotspot. For example, I could not write this post on my Android phone.</p><p>This point is underscored by the experience of Poa!. Poa! CTO Mike Puchol said that when they deployed about 160 outdoor Wi-Fi hotspots in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibera">Kibera</a>, a district of Nairobi, <a href="https://twitter.com/mikepuchol/status/1623172557691146244">users consumed "very little" data</a> despite the price being 10% of the mobile network operator’s rate. When Poa! deployed residential broadband in Kibera, average consumption hit ~140 GB/month right away and is now over 200 GB/month. (In 2021, average mobile data consumption in sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/The-Mobile-Economy-Sub-Saharan-Africa-2022.pdf">was 2.9 GB per month</a>).</p><p>Puchol provisions 1.5 Mb/s per 4 Mb/s account and he says there is "very little" contention. No doubt that contention grows during busy hours and days, but if they can add capacity as quickly as they add customers, they would be able to maintain that contention ratio without alienating too many customers.</p><p>They have fiber loops between their data center and points of presence in each network area they serve and use wireless links to reach individual houses. The service seems to be financially viable in urban areas like Kibera. Puchol reports that they currently have 20,000 home users and last December 27,000 people used the public street service. Poa! has received <a href="https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/poa">over $42 million in funding</a> </p><p><b>Starlink</b></p><p><a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/02/starlink-comes-to-africa-markets-and.html">SpaceX recently began offering Starlink Internet service</a> in Nigeria and Rwanda and several South American nations and will begin service in Kenya next quarter. <i>Could they substitute Starlink connectivity for fiber</i> <i>and offer their service in rural Kenya</i>? </p><p>Today, they could not. Today, there is only one Starlink ground station in Africa and <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?hl=en&ll=0.8852387404551347%2C0&z=3&mid=1805q6rlePY4WZd8QMOaNe2BqAgFkYBY">it is in Nigeria</a>. The only way a Starlink user in Kenya can reach the Internet is via inter-satellite links from a visible satellite to a remote ground station. I just ran Mike Puchol's <a href="https://starlink.sx/">Starlink simulation</a> for one hour at a random location in central Kenya and there was no available coverage six percent of the time.</p><p>Since SpaceX has committed to offering connectivity in Kenya during the second quarter of this year, I assume they will have reachable ground stations by then. The same goes for Angola, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Zambia, <a href="https://www.starlink.com/map">which will have connectivity</a> during the second quarter, and many other African nations that are slated to connect later in 2003 and in 2004. A rural village with access to a ground station could be used for Starlink backhaul.</p><p>If there is excess constellation capacity over a village location, the marginal cost of serving a new terminal will be near zero and an ISP can count on adding users at a predictable cost. I've seen a Nigerian <a href="https://twitter.com/Gbahdeyboh/status/1610302279911108609">Speedtest result</a> showing a download rate of 238 Mb/s, an upload rate of 45 Mb/s, and a latency of 42 ms. At those speeds, a terminal could theoretically support 188 4 Mb/s customers, but that test was run on an unloaded terminal at a particular time of day. </p><p>During a day, the available capacity at a given location varies as the satellites move and the number of users online varies. (Large files should be transferred late at night). </p><p>In the long run, capacity increases as more satellites are launched and technology improves. SpaceX just <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/01/spacex-launches-second-generation.html">began launching second-generation Starlink satellites</a> which provide four times the capacity of the first generation and the next generation is expected to more than double that. The number and capacity of ground stations will also continue to increase, and<a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/01/spacex-is-first-with-inter-satellite.html"> more satellites with inter-satellite laser links</a> will make it possible to reach them from remote sites. We will also see optical links to some ground stations and terminal cost and performance are also improving.</p><p>SpaceX is the only company offering low-Earth orbit broadband connectivity today, but <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/02/starlink-comes-to-africa-markets-and.html">they will have low and medium Earth orbit competitors</a> and several of those future competitors are designing their constellations for organizations and enterprises which may make them better suited than SpaceX for backhaul from a village. For example, OneWeb <a href="https://oneweb.net/solutions/government/edge-computing-solution">will offer service-level agreements</a>, which will take some of the uncertainty out of pricing decisions and SES will offer <a href="https://www.kratosdefense.com/constellations/podcasts/digitized-payloads-shapeable-beams-flexible-gateways">software-defined beam capacities and shapes</a>.</p><p>The one prediction I can make given all this variability is that the prices SpaceX is charging in Rwanda and Nigeria today will change over time <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">as they have in the US and other nations</a>.</p><div><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB8ZqmHVQ-deQ4jLhHw2aYq48Dtn0APdq8xdZ60d0HGR_AAl0Hspmd_DlYTYIhifqTv9s2I-zjXIKv7b-XZRW-hbO2jWtCHtmLn_tFzRhXx5CXbfuT0zWTsEtKCvwNyjXkACT5MCSZL0sS3XYeWddikaoFE4ueDnUKKP8fuCALdVhvcO3V-kg/s1280/PoaStaff.webp" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="718" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB8ZqmHVQ-deQ4jLhHw2aYq48Dtn0APdq8xdZ60d0HGR_AAl0Hspmd_DlYTYIhifqTv9s2I-zjXIKv7b-XZRW-hbO2jWtCHtmLn_tFzRhXx5CXbfuT0zWTsEtKCvwNyjXkACT5MCSZL0sS3XYeWddikaoFE4ueDnUKKP8fuCALdVhvcO3V-kg/s320/PoaStaff.webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">Poa! staff</td></tr></tbody></table>In Kibera, Poa! provides both the fiber link to an area and the wireless links to the homes in the community, but decentralized alternatives where the community contracts with Poa! for the satellite link but installs, owns, and operates the local network should be considered. Whether operated by the local government or a private company, local community networks could coordinate to share expertise, training, and purchase equipment and tools in quantity. There could be variations on this theme. For example, Poa! could offer discount purchasing as a service to community networks.</div><div>The orbit-inclinations and marketing efforts of SpaceX's constellation were focused on affluent nations at first, but nearly all the African and South American nations will have Starlink service next year and OneWeb and SES will be serving many of them as well. Necessity is the mother of invention, and I can't wait to see the technology, organizations, and applications invented in the global south and their social impact.</div><div>PS -- The closest I can come to an English translation of <i>poa</i> is our slang term <i>cool</i>.</div></div></div><div><div><b>Update 3/24/2023</b></div><div>Several people wrote telling me that the Poa! example was unfeasible because the Starlink customer agreement prohibits reselling connectivity and Kenya would require rural community ISPs to have international gateway licenses.</div><div>This is true in Kenya today, but SpaceX will change Starlink prices and policy <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">as they have done in the past</a> and will be operating in many if not all African nations. The Kenyan government may modify licensing regulations to allow a provider like Poa! to obtain a single license covering their retail customers, and other nations have different regulations. </div><div>As noted above, SpaceX's global capacity is increasing but they will have competitors with different technologies, strengths, organizational structures, market emphases (<a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/oneweb-and-intelsat-sign-first-multi.html">OneWeb</a>, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/07/latecomer-amazon-will-be-formidable.html">Amazon Project Kuiper</a>, and <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/05/spacex-starlink-vs-telesat-lightspeed.html">Telesat</a>), and political interests (<a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/02/update-on-china-satnets-guowang.html">China SatNet</a>). The title of a future post may be "Connecting every home in rural Africa -- <i>LEO satellite</i> backhaul."</div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-47079469558904118492023-02-05T11:34:00.031-08:002023-02-09T10:06:09.944-08:00Starlink comes to Africa -- markets and competition<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy5p-sdFtK2K0kTOs-WfYtz0icHIx893GuobPwHkZEXhPV4Lplb-cZBlgVgfOBtYiy37v4DhB1axVBnT4ZDhn99b06uvmtRp4hBkea5haXpH2TPlxUnZLK6oHge-UWmnC2yVNzawzsjmcrZv7GvfrGXPd4ulWwpoD5qIjs0kAWHoSM_NEhMiY/s715/NigeriaStarlink.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="715" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy5p-sdFtK2K0kTOs-WfYtz0icHIx893GuobPwHkZEXhPV4Lplb-cZBlgVgfOBtYiy37v4DhB1axVBnT4ZDhn99b06uvmtRp4hBkea5haXpH2TPlxUnZLK6oHge-UWmnC2yVNzawzsjmcrZv7GvfrGXPd4ulWwpoD5qIjs0kAWHoSM_NEhMiY/w640-h288/NigeriaStarlink.webp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: right;"><a href="https://nairametrics.com/2023/01/03/starlink-fixes-600-as-cost-to-set-up-its-hardware-in-nigeria/">Source</a></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit;">SpaceX Starlink Internet service will be available in several African nations in the second quarter of this year and the price in Nigeria has been announced -- $600 for the "residential" terminal and a monthly fee of $43. Is there a market for Starlink at that price in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African nations?</span><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="border: 0px solid black; box-sizing: border-box; color: #536471; display: inline; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/NGA/">The IMF projects</a> a GDP per capita of $2,580 for Nigeria this year (and </span><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #536471; white-space: pre-wrap;">$1,900 in Sub-Saharan Africa and $2,260 for Africa overall) so the market for individual consumer accounts will be much smaller than in what the IMF refers to as "advanced economies." Instead, we will see shared accounts in government and commercial Telecenters, WiFi hot spots, etc. (Some private companies may encounter payment problems since <a href="https://www.tekedia.com/cbn-bans-using-naira-to-buy-us-dollars-in-nigerian-banking/">Nigeria currently has a currency conversion ban</a>).</span></p><p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQz9QMG_1Krd-jYE2nLohmoYZ9e0iaKK68kbPK82d7nVkJtNxLYkLAe0RyaO286H74asmhec9xcjS-nBeQgGqcQ_gTSVbBzbQw6dA58EbZCjeLlKDueZWDDk2wAfg9QPWxQ4aBsJJVwPxnzMrlqVeEeBr1T27a1louCUnTW1eH8p0Px5n02Ng/s587/FirstInternetPeruCabinaPublica.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="587" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQz9QMG_1Krd-jYE2nLohmoYZ9e0iaKK68kbPK82d7nVkJtNxLYkLAe0RyaO286H74asmhec9xcjS-nBeQgGqcQ_gTSVbBzbQw6dA58EbZCjeLlKDueZWDDk2wAfg9QPWxQ4aBsJJVwPxnzMrlqVeEeBr1T27a1louCUnTW1eH8p0Px5n02Ng/s320/FirstInternetPeruCabinaPublica.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">The first Cabina Publica (<a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_en_el_Per%C3%BA">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The first Internet Telecenter was a "Cabina Publica" in Lima Peru, providing access to the non-profit Peruvian Scientific Network founded by <a href="https://www.internethalloffame.org/inductee/jose-soriano/">Jose Soriano</a>. Around the same time, India was offering Internet services at rural Postal Offices and <a href="http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/devnat/nations/india/pondyoti.htm">experimenting with "information Shops</a>." The Telecenter movement grew and was documented in <a href="https://joinup.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/document/2014-12/media2257.pdf">a </a></span></span><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #536471; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://joinup.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/document/2014-12/media2257.pdf">book by Andy Carvin in 2005</a>, (Coincidentally, Starlink just became available in Peru).</span><div><p></p><p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The availability of mobile phones and laptop computers has enabled widespread WiFi access but some telecenters still exist. For example, the Cuban government operates both <a href="https://www.etecsa.cu/es/salas-espacios-publicos">fixed telecenters and WiFi access points</a>,</span></span></p><p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="background-color: white; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: normal;">Note that a rural satellite Telecenter can pivot from satellite to terrestrial connectivity if it becomes available and continue operation offering Internet and other services.</span></span></span></p><p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkV3JQZpi-xDLAaFRP-zayjxcmFEZHVNsF1FFmaZIIoWop_mMwBGilzJNFnoG6kRJJoHn72BeRK5ry1sdCU9-SJJ0P7z6oVVNZHHAPuJ5Pm1ZweirAtIg5nYYrzZF-h14MkHI8s3R5g8ifi6M9SPJaBR0D_lW1P_hioaQCAWlo4X7xAb4HxY4/s816/IndianClinic.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="816" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkV3JQZpi-xDLAaFRP-zayjxcmFEZHVNsF1FFmaZIIoWop_mMwBGilzJNFnoG6kRJJoHn72BeRK5ry1sdCU9-SJJ0P7z6oVVNZHHAPuJ5Pm1ZweirAtIg5nYYrzZF-h14MkHI8s3R5g8ifi6M9SPJaBR0D_lW1P_hioaQCAWlo4X7xAb4HxY4/s320/IndianClinic.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">A clinic in Rural India (<a href="http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/drafts/itdarticle.pdf">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Telecenters and hotspots are shared by individual customers, but government and private organizations in rural areas -- schools, clinics, local government offices, small businesses, etc. may also use Starlink connections to the Internet. Here is an early example where <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/08/spacex-starlink-comes-to-south-america.html">Starlink is connecting a school and clinic</a> in rural Chile. </span></span><span style="background-color: white;">Organizations or public access facilities may also create multi-terminal and local area networks on their own using Starlink mesh routers or third-party equipment. A multi-user organization that is more complex than a single residential terminal <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/09/supporting-spacex-starlink-in-remote.html">will require professional support</a>. Starlink can also be used for backhaul from mobile towers in remote areas.</span><p></p><p></p>I've been talking about the residential Starlink offering because that is all that is currently available in Nigeria, but in other nations, <a href="https://www.starlink.com/business">SpaceX also offers a business configuration</a> that is faster, comes with a guaranteed service-level agreement, and offers some support. The current business price is much higher -- a $2,500 terminal and $500 monthly charge -- but <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">SpaceX has adopted an affordable pricing strategy</a> for the residential service and may do the same for the business service. They also offer maritime and mobile services and may one day introduce other configurations. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Starlink will have competitors. </b></div><div><br /></div><div>Today they are the only low-Earth orbit (LEO) broadband Internet service provider, but OneWeb, Telesat, Amazon subsidiary Kuiper Systems, and <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/03/guowang-starlink-will-be-chinas-global.html">China SatNet</a> all plan to offer LEO broadband and SES offers competing medium Earth orbit connectivity. With the possible exception of China SatNet, none of these companies plans to offer retail residential service -- they are designing for and marketing to multi-user markets such as we are discussing here and have competitive advantages.</div><div><br /></div><div>For example, Kuiper will have <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/07/amazon-aerospace-and-satellite.html">integration with Amazon Web and Ground station services</a>, OneWeb will soon be offering service and they <a href="https://oneweb.net/about-us/investors">have technology and distribution partners with experience in developing nations</a>, OneWeb and Telesat <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/oneweb-and-intelsat-sign-first-multi.html">are well positioned to offer multi-orbit service</a> through their geostationary orbit partners. SES <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2018/03/o3b-satellite-internet-today-and.html">is already serving potential Starlink customers</a> and has begun launching <a href="https://www.ses.com/o3b-mpower">next-generation mPower satellites</a>. China SatNet will have <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/01/china-will-be-formidable-satellite.html">political and financial advantages</a> in Digital Silk Road nations.</div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh65Bgjx2fYfDusf6myfnaTU0DLBXNRqYgKpqTb2jfOHZqogLVzbMonT0c-J8MHX7X14UgkgcIaopGpkFNJIqOGALmL4Yw5MwtcDKuk1UnerStiEyZXTGk6ehi96MSAm2Xod-JOj7-NlIHWAuSPtPbOYo3TOMBhpqPyB_9wz6UA4vG2GH4Bn_k/s567/AfricaTable.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="567" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh65Bgjx2fYfDusf6myfnaTU0DLBXNRqYgKpqTb2jfOHZqogLVzbMonT0c-J8MHX7X14UgkgcIaopGpkFNJIqOGALmL4Yw5MwtcDKuk1UnerStiEyZXTGk6ehi96MSAm2Xod-JOj7-NlIHWAuSPtPbOYo3TOMBhpqPyB_9wz6UA4vG2GH4Bn_k/w320-h214/AfricaTable.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Sources: <a href="https://www.cable.co.uk/mobiles/worldwide-data-pricing/">Price</a> and <a href="https://www.speedtest.net/global-index">Speed</a> </td></tr></tbody></table>There will also be competition from terrestrial ISPs. Internet customers in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://twitter.com/mikepuchol/status/1617976648498044928">do not have the same expectations</a> as those in wealthier nations. That is illustrated in this table contrasting the United States with the five nations SpaceX expects to serve in the second quarter of this year Nigeria, Mozambique, Angola, Tanzania, and Kenya. Mobile speed is faster than fixed in Africa and slower in the United States and mobile service costs less in these and other African nations. </div><div><br /></div><div>If it turns out that a $600 terminal and a $43 monthly charge do not attract enough customers to utilize available capacity, SpaceX will lower prices, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">as they have done in other nations</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTthytUz5ZBUs5_cDOHOnWoCUBM0jkYgelYnW99AADdDyW6lKt_K6T5oCOirqpoetaU6sywmQFJbsghfekg1ym70tCtawzA0KSPNUJsardewlyJlSwhk5L_zUgCU1LdIWPUc_cMW43dk4PNspbTLySp8Avs69_70TaJgYCjrWGm4_W0cjaIko/s1200/NigerianStarlinkTest.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTthytUz5ZBUs5_cDOHOnWoCUBM0jkYgelYnW99AADdDyW6lKt_K6T5oCOirqpoetaU6sywmQFJbsghfekg1ym70tCtawzA0KSPNUJsardewlyJlSwhk5L_zUgCU1LdIWPUc_cMW43dk4PNspbTLySp8Avs69_70TaJgYCjrWGm4_W0cjaIko/w320-h181/NigerianStarlinkTest.webp" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">An early speed test in Nigeria (<a href="https://twitter.com/Gbahdeyboh/status/1610302279911108609">source)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></a><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div>Available capacity is of course a moving target. Capacity per user decreases as new users come online and increases as new satellites are launched. Elon Musk claims <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2023/01/spacex-launches-second-generation.html">the capacity of their second-generation "Starship" satellites</a> will be close to ten times that of their current satellites and they are <a href="https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/342782-spacex-gets-go-ahead-to-test-200-next-generation-starlink-terminal-designs">testing second-generation residential terminals</a> which Musk says <a href="https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/06/musk-aims-to-cut-starlink-user-terminal-price-from-500-to-as-low-as-250/https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/06/musk-aims-to-cut-starlink-user-terminal-price-from-500-to-as-low-as-250/">will cost a lot less</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>I began by asking about the market for a $600 terminal for $43 per month service. I don't have an answer, but I bet the price will have changed within a year or two.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 2/9/2023</b></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>The experience of <a href="https://poa.co.ke/">Poa Internet</a> in Kenya indicates the viability of a residential Internet market in Africa. Poa CTO <a href="https://twitter.com/mikepuchol/status/1623172557691146244">Mike Puchol reports</a> that when they deployed ~160 outdoor Wi-Fi hotspots in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibera">Kibera</a>, a district of Nairobi, users consumed little data in spite of the price being 10% of the mobile network operator's rate and when Poa offered 4 Mbps service with no caps over wireless links to residences, average consumption hit ~140 GB/month and is now over 200 GB/mo. People share access, use desktop and laptop computers, and do different things at home than on mobile networks or Wi-Fi hotspots.</div><div><br /></div><div>Private or community ISPs will be able to provide wireless or wired residential service using Starlink at, say, 4 Mbps as long as there is sufficient capacity in the community. When Sanjay Bhargava was selected to head Starlink in India in late 2021, he gave a presentation in which <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UOI7b5flgAjJrPs2HDa64p_ZABckasa_/view">he stated a rule of thumb</a> of 100 Starlink terminals in 300 square kilometers. Around the same time, three academic researchers <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=9568932">published a paper</a> in which they estimated a mean per-user capacity of 24.94 Mbps at a density of 1 user per 10 km^2. Capacity has increased since 2021 as SpaceX has launched more satellites, some with inter-satellite laser links and perhaps greater throughput, and, as noted above, second-generation satellites promise significant capacity increases</div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-83668965304868370482023-01-16T19:19:00.006-08:002023-01-20T06:04:50.077-08:00Hole in Space -- the mother of all video chats<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx14UHK8a6Ef5gqGZw60K-Pp575c9wWj1Dxp8kUWfBQg_JqtCCi0MIYvN8tE1A6orla4NVevuULvcHbaxPwHUiUr67RkHH9HVFiuRSGKlSwyadJ2Z5sJ9UZ6TQOqLYSE9GXxP6x7oVcw_e59vOzEw_ARcirt711PDgH9zSmmkZBBqyNtkK4Ew/s1520/HoleInSpace2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="1520" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx14UHK8a6Ef5gqGZw60K-Pp575c9wWj1Dxp8kUWfBQg_JqtCCi0MIYvN8tE1A6orla4NVevuULvcHbaxPwHUiUr67RkHH9HVFiuRSGKlSwyadJ2Z5sJ9UZ6TQOqLYSE9GXxP6x7oVcw_e59vOzEw_ARcirt711PDgH9zSmmkZBBqyNtkK4Ew/w640-h214/HoleInSpace2.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><br />New technology enables new art forms and artists Kit Galloway and Sherrie Rabinowitz (K&S) began working with geostationary satellite links in 1977. Their <a href="https://archive.org/details/vasulka12114/mode/1up">first work</a> was an experiment in remote dance and music. Video of dancers at The Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland and an educational television center in California was transmitted to a central control studio where a composite was formed and sent back to monitors the dancers could see. <p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8jRGm7pWvAv0VHF6gR2WgzI30iRIeTQAs8ruKhhJrUBd5sR-XEZWppDkDRfQfQeB71VmbnSNYh1W7MbhmrhO3n2OhdveXeFT0Fzb-IOPgKcnUWp402fIWj3KXHOnXXCF8bjyl_ChVjTqxhVodwhP0gNAN3sYnbuZqxzKgtEGw0nGGybXaAlg/s2745/NYLA.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1672" data-original-width="2745" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8jRGm7pWvAv0VHF6gR2WgzI30iRIeTQAs8ruKhhJrUBd5sR-XEZWppDkDRfQfQeB71VmbnSNYh1W7MbhmrhO3n2OhdveXeFT0Fzb-IOPgKcnUWp402fIWj3KXHOnXXCF8bjyl_ChVjTqxhVodwhP0gNAN3sYnbuZqxzKgtEGw0nGGybXaAlg/s320/NYLA.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">First day: "They're in New York? I'm in LA, right?"</td></tr></tbody></table>Their next project involved remote conversation rather than movement and they called it "Hole in Space" (HiS). The conversation took place in November 1980 between people at two locations, a display window at the Broadway department store at the Century City mall in Los Angeles and a window in the foyer of the Avery Fisher Concert Hall at the Lincoln Center in New York.<p></p><p></p><p>They made three two-hour connections. The first day was unannounced -- participants were curious passers-by who just stopped to see what was happening. They took the second day off and some word of mouth had gotten out by the third day. There was also local news television coverage before the final day, so some people made plans to meet distant friends and relatives.</p><p>The sessions began at 5:30 Los Angeles time, so illumination was needed. They did not want to attract large crowds by lighting the participants. Instead, they relied on visible light from inside the venues augmented by infrared emitters near the bottoms of the windows.</p><p>The terminals consisted of cameras developed by <a href="http://cohu.com">Cohu Industries</a> that were sensitive to both infrared and visible light. (You can see the effect of the heat-sensitive infrared radiation in the glowing cigarettes of some participants). The displays were RCA projection TVs with custom-made 12 by 12-foot vinyl screens. Connections to the satellite ground stations were over microwave links to a mountaintop near Los Angeles and the roof of a tall building in New York.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6QaSGLYsxWsYqVLtZsnKQfuJA-BDjU-SY2zls3jjlL29DEe3lUVSo8MSKSaIyB_s3QXG8-iV0TBMc6xEHVQom_RK9fbhPc5kUPs7jwFKrX4tiNwyabilP5XeI0nNBysRqG4GIlE393PTKyJN_7DPlObr6NehzBye5dL4z4K_5AxuiWNXLcO0/s3000/HiSEmotion.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1661" data-original-width="3000" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6QaSGLYsxWsYqVLtZsnKQfuJA-BDjU-SY2zls3jjlL29DEe3lUVSo8MSKSaIyB_s3QXG8-iV0TBMc6xEHVQom_RK9fbhPc5kUPs7jwFKrX4tiNwyabilP5XeI0nNBysRqG4GIlE393PTKyJN_7DPlObr6NehzBye5dL4z4K_5AxuiWNXLcO0/s320/HiSEmotion.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Third day: conveying emotion as well as content</td></tr></tbody></table>Communication was provided by Western Union's <a href="https://space.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/Programs/westar.html">Westar satellites</a>, which were typically used for things like the distribution of television programs and sporting events like the Los Angeles Lakers basketball games. Western Union provided three uninterruptible two-hour sessions. <p></p><p>Galloway says the geostationary satellite latency was not a problem (as it had been for dance), but feedback between the speakers and microphones was, so they had operators at each location manually toggling echo cancellation on and off. There was also someone interviewing people in the crowds during the sessions. At one point a speaker failed in Los Angeles, and Rabinowitz had to run upstairs to borrow one from the store's audio-visual sales department.</p><p>K&S became aware of terrestrial networking after HiS and in 1984 <a href="http://www.ecafe.com/1984.html">began their Electronic Cafe project</a> which supported conversations, remote collaborative drawing, and global<a href="http://www.ecafe.com/nye96.html"> New Year's Eve "Telebrations</a>".</p><p>HiS was done at a time when nearly all data was text (only upper-case if your terminal was a Teletype or keypunch machine). It was done the year Usenet began and was three years before TCP/IP replaced NCP on the ARPAnet, five years before the NSFNET was established, and eight years before we saw the first text-only version of the Web. (See <a href="http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/471/hout/netHistory/">links to these and other milestones here</a>). K&S's art pieces anticipated modern services like <a href="https://zoom.us/">Zoom</a> for meeting online and <a href="https://www.jacktrip.com/">JackTrip</a> for remote musical practice and performance. </p><p>Here are links to a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSMVtE1QjaU">short, narrated video</a>, 4m 48s, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyIJJr6Ldg8">a longer video produced by K&S</a>, 29m 45s.</p><p>I wish there were holes in space between Russia and Ukraine.</p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-37038652842756201112023-01-04T08:45:00.025-08:002023-02-27T10:39:26.504-08:00SpaceX launches "second generation" Starlink satellites<p></p><i>Why did SpaceX designate these satellites as Gen2 rather than Gen1? </i><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid_SlrvYujiqKIvrTpx813rj4XUbpjhfyZX_F5b0fu9178S-KPAD1UHLqA7EI0oJNXcdjH9Pm1rHK47sNuHLZrwrrjfESSULRPbaQ_H9GKyELJDQ1HaNoFGzT2gd7K3P9tOQuQqNiw3S7PNruG8IGOLH5EJUqVPiotWaIUgSN9rOS0C4XSn0A/s3000/StarlinkGen1.5VGen2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1686" data-original-width="3000" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid_SlrvYujiqKIvrTpx813rj4XUbpjhfyZX_F5b0fu9178S-KPAD1UHLqA7EI0oJNXcdjH9Pm1rHK47sNuHLZrwrrjfESSULRPbaQ_H9GKyELJDQ1HaNoFGzT2gd7K3P9tOQuQqNiw3S7PNruG8IGOLH5EJUqVPiotWaIUgSN9rOS0C4XSn0A/w400-h225/StarlinkGen1.5VGen2.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Starlink Gen1 v1.5 vs Gen2 v F9-1 satellites (<a href="https://youtu.be/f9o2pOlEPoU?t=329">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><br />In <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/can-spacex-launch-version-2-starlink.html">interviews last Spring</a>, Elon Musk said the data throughput of the next version of Starlink satellite (Gen2) would be almost an order of magnitude greater than that of the first generation and that the new Starship rocket would be needed to launch them. Regulatory and engineering delays slowed Starship's progress, so the Gen2 satellites Musk referred to at the time have not yet been launched.<p></p><p>Last Fall, SpaceX broadened the definition of <i>Gen2</i> <a href="https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/12/spacex-starlink-5-1-launch/">to include three configurations</a>, designated <i>F9-1</i>,<i> F9-2</i>, and <i>Starship. </i>Musk was referring to the Gen2 <i>Starship </i>version when he described high-capacity satellites last Spring. The SpaceX Falcon rocket will launch <i>F9-1 </i>and F<i>9-2</i> satellites, but the <i>Starship </i>version will require the Starship rocket. </p><p>Last month, <a href="https://t.co/g55c6i1ZzR">the FCC authorized SpaceX</a> to launch 7,500 Gen2 satellites operating at altitudes of 525, 530, and 535 km and inclinations of 53, 43, and 33 degrees, respectively, using frequencies in the Ku- and Ka-bands. (They had applied for authorization for 29,988 satellites but only 7,500 were approved at this time -- perhaps due to concern over space debris).</p><p>Last week, SpaceX <a href="https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/12/spacex-starlink-5-1-launch/">launched 54 Gen2 <i>F9-1</i> satellites</a> and they are close, if not identical, to the earlier Gen1, version 1.5 Satellites SpaceX has been launching recently. Eric Ralph <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-last-starlink-launch-2022-mystery/">referred to them as</a> "suspiciously similar" and NASA confirmed that <a href="https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/12/spacex-starlink-5-1-launch/">they were the same size and mass</a> as the previously launched Gen1 version 1.5 satellites.</p><p>Why did SpaceX designate these satellites as Gen2 rather than Gen1? fo</p><p>Tim Farrar attributes it to SpaceX <a href="https://twitter.com/TMFAssociates/status/1598443305855225856">gaining a competitive advantage</a> over potential rival Kuiper, saying "It's very clear that SpaceX wants to launch the first Ka-band Gen2 satellites before Kuiper's test satellites to gain a band-splitting advantage." </p><p>In 2018, the FCC <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-18-38A1.docx">granted SpaceX permission</a> to use the 27.5-29.1 GHz and 29.5-30.0 GHz bands for Gen1 Earth-space transmission. Subsequently, SpaceX was authorized to use those bands for its Gen2 satellites and <a href="https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=285359#:~:text=See%2047%20C.F.R.,5.71(a)(1).&text=Satellite%20Orbit%20System%2C%20Order%2C%2035,(%E2%80%9CKuiper%20Authorization%E2%80%9D).&text=GHz%2C%2019.3%2D19.7%20GHz%2C,and%2029.5%2D30.0%20GHz%20bands.">Kuiper was authorized</a> to use 27.5-3,0 GHz for its satellites. <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-21-123A1.pdf">The FCC rules</a> say that SpaceX and Kuiper can agree to a spectrum-sharing rule that protects the first-round rights of SpaceX, but if they cannot agree, the first to launch a satellite capable of operating in the frequency band under consideration gets to choose which portion of the spectrum it will use when interference is detected.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1Yaf4GcHmnl6tsrqzBLpuBp6Ur18TzpUxazYVJLNAw_4ez8KATw_0pEfDaZrUcbSddlEQ0XiIBPRYy60lDofx--Sf8OmHEIUodss9yy7z11U3g_6aauBIKbUyZ2WiU7IsvZ_GN0eaxMFBgJ4xqEgjdoUkv84qRvAAgI8SHP3c5jhcHZ_Sk5Y/s746/StarlinkSpeedOoklaUS.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="746" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1Yaf4GcHmnl6tsrqzBLpuBp6Ur18TzpUxazYVJLNAw_4ez8KATw_0pEfDaZrUcbSddlEQ0XiIBPRYy60lDofx--Sf8OmHEIUodss9yy7z11U3g_6aauBIKbUyZ2WiU7IsvZ_GN0eaxMFBgJ4xqEgjdoUkv84qRvAAgI8SHP3c5jhcHZ_Sk5Y/s320/StarlinkSpeedOoklaUS.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgJScijHH9oKh69J0hCJ4IA2_KxOdw?e=YZC9vs">Source</a></td></tr></tbody></table>A second motivation may have been the Gen2 right to orbit at a 43-degree inclination. Starlink has had <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">insufficient capacity to serve customers in some regions</a> and may have calculated that the 43-degree inclination would ease that congestion in relatively high-price, high-demand regions like the U. S., where <a href="http://ookla.com">Ookla</a> has shown declining speeds for three quarters.<p></p><p>Regardless, the designations <i>Gen1</i> and <i>Gen2 </i>seem arbitrary, and we won't see a meaningful difference between them until Gen2<i> F9-2 </i>satellites<i> </i>are launched and we won't see a major difference until Starship is flying and launching Gen2 <i>Starship</i> satellites. </p><p><b>Update 2/27/2023</b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOOCE5LC2EkotMtKLODyLKhz3LQgoAatGIZImmsVT9nZu2jUFSWnai6SAvSM73wb1MebRCbJa_KHhotzZ_Xac_tNYYwomjSrQKALt0kuCpP8YxYlyIO4vBsQH_zuyeESmSIC75jLXDev_EMROj-SKVYTBfsb8cNts242lKK9a4sj-SwjMZ5ak/s1782/SpaceXGen2F9-2.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1180" data-original-width="1782" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOOCE5LC2EkotMtKLODyLKhz3LQgoAatGIZImmsVT9nZu2jUFSWnai6SAvSM73wb1MebRCbJa_KHhotzZ_Xac_tNYYwomjSrQKALt0kuCpP8YxYlyIO4vBsQH_zuyeESmSIC75jLXDev_EMROj-SKVYTBfsb8cNts242lKK9a4sj-SwjMZ5ak/s320/SpaceXGen2F9-2.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Stack of 21 V2 Mini satellites</td></tr></tbody></table><p>SpaceX has posted some <a href="https://api.starlink.com/public-files/Gen2StarlinkSatellites.pdf">information about the Gen 2 F9-2 satellites</a>. They are referring to them as "V2 Mini" satellites and say they will have four times the capacity of the Gen 1 satellites. The image shown here shows 21 satellites, presumably the number that can be launched by the current Falcon 9 rocket. As mentioned above, Elon Musk predicts the Starship satellites will be around ten times the capacity of the current satellites. </p><p>The update also lists several steps and links to documents SpaceX is taking <a href="https://www.spacex.com/updates/#sustainability">to avoid collisions</a> and to <a href="https://api.starlink.com/public-files/BrightnessMitigationBestPracticesSatelliteOperators.pdf">reduce reflected light</a> that interferes with astronomy.</p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #536471;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: nowrap;">There was speculation that the</span></span> first V2 Mini <a href="https://twitter.com/GewoonLukas_/status/1627089604850634758">would be launched</a> on February 23rd, but that launch was postponed until today and Starship is expected <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-orbital-launch-march-confirmed">to attempt an orbital launch</a> next month. I wonder whether SpaceX will launch more Gen 2 F9-1 satellites -- the answer probably depends upon the ability to ramp up manufacturing of the Minis.</div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-14790303655005228652022-12-16T12:06:00.011-08:002023-02-07T10:20:39.068-08:00Cuban undersea cable politics<p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Undersea cables between the U. S. and Cuba have long been intertwined with politics. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 1887, T</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1867/09/18/archives/west-indies-miscellaneous-intelligence-from-cuba-martinique-and.html" style="font-family: inherit;">he New York Times reported</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> on the inauguration of a cable in support of the Cuban insurgents fighting for independence from Spain -- a precursor to the Spanish-American war. <a href="https://www.ascecuba.org/asce_proceedings/cuban-telecommunication-infrastructure-and-investment/">Phone service between the U.S. and Cuba began in 1921</a> with AT&T's installation of an undersea cable and AT&T dominated international telephony to Cuba until the 1990s.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 1994, <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/drafts/DRU1330-1.html">WilTe1 applied for permission</a> to construct a 210-kilometer, 2.5-gigabit fiber optic cable that would have had roughly 41 times the then-authorized capacity, but they never received approval for an Internet cable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 1966 Sprint established a wireless link from Florida to Cuba, providing Cuba with </span><a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2011/02/cubas-first-internet-connection.html" style="font-family: inherit;">its first Internet connection</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"> with funds from the U. S. National Science Foundation </span><a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/236156.240575" style="font-family: inherit;">International Connections Program</a><span style="font-family: inherit;">. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><p><span>When President Obama relaxed relations with Cuba, <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Daniel Sepulveda, who led two U. S. government delegations to Cuba, </span><span style="color: #222222;">said <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-second-high-level-us-delegation-to.html">there were at least a half-dozen proposals</a> — from U. S. and non-U. S. companies — to construct an undersea cable between the US and Cuba. The most promising proposal was for a 5</span><span style="text-align: justify;">6-kilometer link between the existing <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/arcos">ARCOS cable</a>, which connects to southern Florida, and Cuba. The proposal was submitted in August 2018 and the FCC deemed it acceptable for expedited 45-day processing, but nothing happened until Trump established a committee to consider the security risks of the cable. This month the committee </span><span style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/12/justice-department-recommends-that-fcc.html">advised the FCC to deny the politically hot proposal</a>. </span></span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="text-align: justify;">Within a week, </span><span style="text-align: justify;">ETECSA, Cuba's state-owned telecommunication monopoly, and the French telecommunication company Orange announced an agreement to construct a 2,470-kilometer cable connecting Cuba and the Caribbean Island of Martinique. </span><span style="text-align: justify;">At <a href="http://www.cubanews.acn.cu/cuba/19751-technical-works-get-underway-to-connect-cuba-to-underwater-cable">the announcement ceremony</a> officials of ETECSA and Orange said </span><span style="text-align: justify;">technical work had already begun and </span><span style="text-align: justify;">the <a href="https://t.co/UVy6tjbKp6">permits for the cable</a> had been granted. This was clearly planned in advance and the announcement was triggered by the decision on the ARCOS cable. (I wonder if the topic came up when <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/12/01/1140163806/biden-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-french-president-macrons-state-visit">President Biden and Prime Minister Macron met</a> recently).</span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPZNJZEIEADYtyuqF30Ogj6_MkuXOxx76GmyvHSnCERGYTtzAqnTzo-bJCxg9WB-nxzei4QOJLyzBpHLV4PPmOScNL-4ISbqLHXJGXgBB6MfcROLYNY0jY9Vs6nwXasrdCPe6c4VxIcHnVnrahTYG9fmcG3nV857wR5M5DnLz9ZUkyeFNqtkI/s1561/CubaThreeCables.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1456" data-original-width="1561" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPZNJZEIEADYtyuqF30Ogj6_MkuXOxx76GmyvHSnCERGYTtzAqnTzo-bJCxg9WB-nxzei4QOJLyzBpHLV4PPmOScNL-4ISbqLHXJGXgBB6MfcROLYNY0jY9Vs6nwXasrdCPe6c4VxIcHnVnrahTYG9fmcG3nV857wR5M5DnLz9ZUkyeFNqtkI/s320/CubaThreeCables.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p><span>As shown here, Cuba currently has undersea cable connections to Venezuela and Jamaica (red) and a U. S. owned cable (green) between<a href="http://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2015/02/guantanamo-is-in-news-but-not-undersea.html"> Guantanamo and Florida</a>. (There has been discussion of giving the Cable to Cuba someday). </span></p><div><span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="text-align: justify;">The new <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/arimao">Arimao cable</a> will run from Schoelcher, Martinique to Arimao Beach in the Cienfuegos Province on Cuba's south coast and</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> will connect to Havana and other Cuban locations over the domestic backbone. They have already <a href="https://twitter.com/philBE2/status/1603439386980499457">begun laying the cable</a>, which will take around three weeks and it is expected to be ready for service in 2023. Its capacity is listed as "unknown."</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Arimao cable will improve service and resilience in Cuba, but approving the ARCOS cable would have been a better solution for the following reasons:</span></div><div><ul><li><span style="font-family: inherit;">It would have improved the standing of the U. S. in the region and the world. </span>The UN General Assembly has voted on a resolution calling for the end of the U. S. embargo on Cuba every year since 1992 (except in 2020 due to COVID). This year <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/06/1094612">184 nations voted for the resolution</a>, Colombia, Ukraine, and Brazil abstained and only the U. S. and Israel voted <i>no</i>.</li><li>The 56-kilometer ARCOS cable would have been cheaper and a little faster than the 2,470-kilometer cable. (I do not know how the cable is being financed, but ETECSA and Orange are listed as owners).</li><li>The cable would already be in service.</li><li>The cable would have landed on the north side of the island at Cojimar, a district of Havana, the source and destination of heavy traffic, lightening the load on the Cuban backbone and improving latency.</li><li>It may have improved U. S.-Cuba relations.</li></ul><div>In my opinion, this was a lost opportunity.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 12/18/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez tweeted the following after the Cuba-Martinique undersea cable was announced:<div><blockquote>Establishing a submarine cable connection between Florida and Cuba would be a positive step for both countries and would expand Internet access for Cubans. Denying it contradicts the position declared by the US government in May 2022. <a href="https://twitter.com/BrunoRguezP/status/1603432769681608704">(original in Spanish)</a></blockquote></div><div>Why did he post that at this time? Was it to make it clear that the U. S., not Cuba, had stopped the ALBA cable link? What impact would a third international link have?</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 2/7/2023</b></div><div><br /></div><div>ETECSA president <a href="https://havanatimes.org/cuba/cuba-hopes-to-activate-a-new-cable-from-martinique-in-april/">Tania Velázquez Rodríguez said</a> the current ALBA-1 cable is saturated and the new Arimao cable has a tentative go-live date of next April. <a href="https://twitter.com/philBE2/status/1622647100474261510">Experts on Twitter</a> doubt that the cable will be ready for service that soon. The expected capacity of the cable is unknown, but if the ALBA-1 cable is saturated, it should improve Cuban international access, </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-51744188148005012242022-12-02T16:00:00.005-08:002022-12-03T20:54:12.118-08:00Justice Department recommends that the FCC deny the proposed ARCOS cable segment connecting Florida and Cuba<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7WzSk1jV00iXfQE-5oH7JEY2IZvJEejjQT4u0_evaLNNDe5MmGC4mruENQh_UJ1ahfHyC5lIUOn5nANIghtXdFwmU7NgoX7O6gXaD7vgCuU7oV-eFRdBVDus5OCq5vNEl5PYwxhpnEYbwJ1FE0MUGqQFFsqlaJOulKzGlkyQ_tWyxb6Av-Ms/s977/ARCOSCubaCable.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="977" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7WzSk1jV00iXfQE-5oH7JEY2IZvJEejjQT4u0_evaLNNDe5MmGC4mruENQh_UJ1ahfHyC5lIUOn5nANIghtXdFwmU7NgoX7O6gXaD7vgCuU7oV-eFRdBVDus5OCq5vNEl5PYwxhpnEYbwJ1FE0MUGqQFFsqlaJOulKzGlkyQ_tWyxb6Av-Ms/s320/ARCOSCubaCable.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Proposed link between the <a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/arcos">ARCOS undersea cable</a> and Cuba</td></tr></tbody></table>In September 2020, I wrote a <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/09/what-became-of-arcos-undersea-cable.html" style="text-align: left;">post on a proposed 56-kilometer link</a><span style="text-align: left;"> between the </span><a href="https://www.submarinecablemap.com/submarine-cable/arcos" style="text-align: left;">ARCOS undersea cable</a><span style="text-align: left;"> and the north coast of Cuba, near Havana. The Trump-appointed Justice Department Committee for the Assessment of Foreign Participation in the United States Telecommunications Services Sector was to conduct a 120-day security review of the proposal. </span><p></p><p>Since <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/10/20/2017-22928/strengthening-the-policy-of-the-united-states-toward-cuba#:~:text=Notice.,heads%20of%20departments%20and%20agencies.">it is US policy to</a> "amplify efforts to support the Cuban people through the expansion of internet services," I assumed the proposal would have smooth sailing, but it stalled. I <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/09/what-became-of-arcos-undersea-cable.html">followed up with several people</a> but got no explanation.</p><p>When President Biden was elected, <a href="https://laredcubana.blogspot.com/2021/02/a-timely-suggestion-for-president-biden.html">I argued in favor of the proposal</a>, pointing out that it was consistent with our stated policy, would benefit the Cuban people, would improve our standing in the region, and would be popular with many Florida voters.</p><p>Yesterday a <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/team-telecom-recommends-fcc-deny-application-directly-connect-united-states-cuba-through">Justice Department press release</a> stated The Committee had finally recommended that the FCC deny the ARCOS application. Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen said, “as long as the government of Cuba poses a counterintelligence threat to the United States, and partners with others who do the same, the risks to our critical infrastructure are simply too great.”</p><p>The <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1554426/download">Justice Department recommendation</a> cites three risk factors (paraphrased):</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>ETECSA, Cuba's government-run telecommunication monopoly, would own the landing station in Cuba and could therefore have access to all traffic over a segment to Cuba.</li><li>The Cuban government could perform a BGP hijack to misdirect non-Cuban Internet traffic to themselves for interception.</li><li>The Cuban government has close ties to China and Russia and could share intel learned from #1 and #2 with them.</li></ol><p></p><p>Doug Madory, Director of Internet Analysis at Kentik <a href="https://twitter.com/DougMadory/status/1598390083857838080">refuted the claims</a> pointing out that all traffic to/from Cuba goes through ETECSA, and nothing stops them from misdirecting or sharing information with China and Russia now. Madory concludes "I suppose this was a political decision because the rationales listed in this announcement are completely nonsensical from a technical standpoint."</p><p>The report mentions a classified annex and considerable "confidential business information" is redacted, critical information, but from what we can see, as Madory says, this seems political.</p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-26522521676896383122022-10-28T10:03:00.016-07:002024-02-15T15:49:58.803-08:00Is the Defense Innovation Unit's Hybrid Space Architecture the "ARPANET" of space and will it run on Aalyria Spacetime?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS0DXrkFujCOvLE-vsO0I1-VNQT9bPOpQxLSM9AVNn87vOacGGAj7WJOOX0TgKpo8qctyYHzvMcDTWLavqfjDoaiET-20vrIHx3BJzziZlU16mYsQzzJ1iwlmCSwwjjqaPYuT7AaKqMOrCqnB6tSkUtdDUfkBv7P-lQIuIFI8gSeeOziSpBkY/s3000/SpacetimeScreenShot.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1747" data-original-width="3000" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS0DXrkFujCOvLE-vsO0I1-VNQT9bPOpQxLSM9AVNn87vOacGGAj7WJOOX0TgKpo8qctyYHzvMcDTWLavqfjDoaiET-20vrIHx3BJzziZlU16mYsQzzJ1iwlmCSwwjjqaPYuT7AaKqMOrCqnB6tSkUtdDUfkBv7P-lQIuIFI8gSeeOziSpBkY/w640-h373/SpacetimeScreenShot.png" width="640" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Spacetime's user interface shows changing links and topology over time (<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6977722903433809920/">source</a>)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The <a href="https://www.diu.mil/about">goal of the Defense Innovation Unit</a> (DIU) of the Department of Defense is to strengthen our national security by accelerating the adoption of commercial technology throughout the military and strengthening our allied and national security innovation bases. <a href="https://www.diu.mil/solutions/portfolio#Space">Space is one of its areas of focus</a> and two of the space "lines of effort" are multi-orbit operations and logistics and hardware-to-software transformation modernization.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The DIU's <a href="https://www.diu.mil/latest/developing-the-internet-of-space">Hybrid Space Architecture</a> (HSA) program seeks to provide global, ubiquitous, and secure Internet connectivity throughout the space domain for commercial, civil, and military users, including international allies and partners. Several companies <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">are developing multi-orbit Internet service</a> between the low-Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) satellites and medium-Earth orbit (MEO) satellites and GEO satellites, but the HSA is more ambitious, calling for a "robust, secure software-defined network which integrates diverse telecom systems across LEO, MEO, GEO orbits, and cislunar space." The DIU recently awarded contracts to four companies to begin work on the HSA. They expect to award more contracts and plan on-orbit demonstrations within 24 months.</span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">One of the awards went to <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/aalyria-space-internet-startup-with.html">Aalyria, a startup that is marketing Spacetime</a>. Spacetime is a multi-layer, multi-orbit, operating system for <a href="https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/10.2514/6.2016-5755">a temporospatial network</a> that "captures the potential for software-defined controllers to utilize knowledge of physics to make predictions about the future state of the lower-level network" for end-to-end path optimization. Those predictions require simulation of both the network stack and astronomical physics that began with the <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/5482493">integration of space and network simulators at NASA</a>.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The practical application of Spacetime grew out of <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2014/06/can-google-connect-other-three-billion.html">Google's early efforts at connecting rural areas and developing nations</a>. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXYZeUtGh_g">In a recent podcast interview</a>, Brian Barritt, Aalyria CTO, and Executive VP said Spacetime exceeds the HSA requirements since it can integrate and optimize paths across terrestrial, air, LEO, MEO, GEO, cislunar, and eventually deep-space networks. (Vint Cerf, an early proponent of <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/1204759">delay-tolerant networking</a> for use in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnGoYZJ5-Vs">Solar-System Internet</a> is on the Aalyria Advisory Board and considers Spacetime to be applicable to <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/1204759">NASA's next-generation space communications architecture</a>).</span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Barritt says Spacetime was used by hundreds of thousands of users of <a href="https://x.company/projects/loon/">Project Loon</a> and is ready for adoption today. He added that Spacetime networks can interoperate, optimizing paths and potentially sharing assets across a federated network of networks of up to a combined size of fifteen million possible links (for now).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Several LEO broadband constellations <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">are working on LEO, GEO and air</a> integrations -- <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/oneweb-and-intelsat-sign-first-multi.html">OneWeb seems to be farthest along</a> -- but these efforts are of limited scope compared to Spacetime. Furthermore, they are proprietary solutions and Barritt says Spacetime APIs are <a href="https://twitter.com/brianbarritt/status/1580413837634699264">open and available now</a>, and they hope to make them an open standard. (Years ago, I worked on a project <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/63030.63038">benchmarking Apple's local area network technology, AppleTalk</a>, against IBM's Token-ring and Ethernet. The benchmark results were irrelevant because Ethernet was an open standard).</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">A multi-orbit network requires optical communication links between satellites. SpaceX <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/01/spacex-is-first-with-inter-satellite.html">has begun deploying satellites with optical inter-satellite links</a> in their Starlink constellation and many vendors are working on space-space optical communication. <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/space-based-adaptive-communications-node">DARPA is also pursuing a space-space standard</a> that may become the "Ethernet" of inter-satellite links. Barritt says Spacetime drivers can be written to incorporate any optical terminal.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">SpaceX recently <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">moved to affordable pricing</a> as performance faltered in some locations due to oversubscription given limited spectrum availability and gateway capacity. They will add capacity by improving technology and launching more satellites but growing traffic volume will require optical (and v-band RF) links between satellites and the ground, and those are problematic due to atmospheric signal distortion. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Barritt says Aalyria's Tightbeam optical terminals can adapt to adverse atmospheric conditions under program control, for example cutting transmission speed to increase signal power to maintain signal integrity. Spacetime can adjust Tightbeam power, route around inclement weather, or find an RF link if that yields the optimal path. Tesat, Mynaric, Skyloom, the <a href="https://www.sda.mil/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/SDA-OCT-Standard-v3.0.pdf">Space Development Agency</a>, and <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-us-china-technology-cold-war-battle.html">Chinese companies</a> are also working on optical space-ground communication and Spacetime drivers should be able to accommodate their terminals if they are superior to Tightbeam.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Barritt ended the interview by stating that despite the failure of Loon, high altitude platforms are not dead and spoke of the hypothetical case of a LEO broadband constellation that was over capacity in a region. He suggested that if it were running Spacetime it could federate with lighter-than-air vehicles to add capacity.</span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Disclaimers</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Lest you run out and invest in Aalyria after reading this, I must add a disclaimer or two. Most of what I have said is based on statements from Aalyria and Brian Barrett's interview, which I encourage you to listen to.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">While Project Loon logged over two million Spacetime-user hours, there have been no other adoptions as far as I know. <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/02/google-baloons-and-telesat-satellites.html">Telesat initially planned to use Spacetime</a> but that was canceled in favor of a network operating system from Thales Alenia Space. I don't know why that change was made, but it may have been because Telesat had been contemplating the integration of their LEO and GEO constellations and decided to keep them independent.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Tightbeam has been tested over long, challenging terrestrial links like from the ground to a mountaintop in the San Francisco Bay area and from aircraft to the ground, but not yet from space.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">The commitments of today's LEO companies, particularly SpaceX and OneWeb, to proprietary operating systems might be Spacetime's biggest problem. SpaceX has around 500,000 residential subscribers and OneWeb and Eutelsat have merged and are committed to and working on LEO-GEO integration for OneWeb's version 2 satellites, which they hope to begin launching in mid-2025. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">We will know a lot more about Spacetime and Tightbeam when we see the on-orbit HSA demonstration in 24 months. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Sci-Fi</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Rather than end on a disclaimer, I'll offer some utopian science fiction. The current version of Spacetime can handle up to fifteen million links, which must require massive, parallel computation, but Barritt envisions federations of Spacetime networks if they can increase the link limit. That could enable the sharing of common resources like <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/06/amazons-aws-ground-station-service-is.html">Amazon's ground-station service</a> or federation of future broadband network generations. (Has Amazon settled on control software for the <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/07/latecomer-amazon-will-be-formidable.html">Project Kuiper constellation</a>)? </span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">LeoLabs offers <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/07/space-debris-tracking-as-service.html">satellite and debris tracking and collision avoidance</a> as a service that, like Spacetime, requires powerful simulation. Would there be a meaningful way for the two companies <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/04/avoiding-low-earth-orbit-collisions.html">to collaborate on collision avoidance</a>?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Last and least likely, how about a Spacetime federation that includes <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/03/guowang-starlink-will-be-chinas-global.html">China's Satnet constellation</a>? That is politically inconceivable today, but <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/02/update-on-china-satnets-guowang.html">it will be many years</a> before Satnet is ready to launch satellites and global challenges will be more pressing by the time they are.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Update 11/23/2022</span></b></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">.</span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #666666;">DIU has <a href="https://intelligencecommunitynews.com/diu-awards-more-hybrid-space-architecture-contracts/">awarded four contracts in the second phase of HSA</a> to companies collectively pursuing the goals of an agile and resilient communications architecture that will move data across commercial, military, and allied assets while integrating multi-domain cloud-based storage and analytics. The organizations joining the DIU effort include <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/spideroak-announces-contract-with-us-defense-innovation-unit-to-demonstrate-orbitsecure-zero-trust-protocol-on-orbit-301666252.html">SpiderOak Mission Systems</a>, <a href="https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/publicsector/aws-project-kuiper-support-us-militarys-hybrid-space-architecture-project/">Amazon Web Services, and Project Kuiper</a>, </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;">and</span><span style="color: #666666;"> <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2022/11/02/azure-space-helps-bring-ubiquitous-connectivity-and-rapid-insights-from-space-for-national-security-missions/">Microsoft Azure Space</a>.</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Note that Amazon and Microsoft will be competing on cloud access and ground station service and Project Kuiper, not SpaceX Starlink, will be working on connecting the unconnected. The others are focused on battlefield status, security, and Privacy.</span></div><div><span style="color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Update 3/13/2023</span></b></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">Aalyria has a commercial contract in addition to its DIU contract.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #666666;">Rivada Space Networks <a href="https://spacenews.com/rivada-space-networks-selects-aalyria-spacetime/">will use Spacetime</a>, in its planned low-Earth orbit communications constellation. The <a href="https://www.rivada.com/spacelaunch/">constellation will provide</a></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> secure satellite networks with pole-to-pole reach, offering end-to-end latencies similar or better than terrestrial fiber. It "will operate like an optical backbone in space using lasers to interconnect satellites to deliver an ultra-secure and highly reliable global data network for business operations in the telecom, enterprise, maritime, energy and government services markets."</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><div><b style="color: black;"><br /></b></div><div><b style="color: black;">Update 2/15/2024</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Aalyria <a href="https://spacenews.com/space-startup-aalyria-demonstrates-satellite-mesh-network/">demonstrated a satellite mesh network</a> for the Defense Innovation Unit. The network included about 630 satellites from three commercial satellite operators: OneWeb, Viasat, and Intelsat. They used terminals from OneWeb, Kymeta, Viasat, and Comtech. Fixed and mobile ground terminals were placed in four sites on two continents. The demonstration was at the Naval Research Lab, which is also <a href="https://news.satnews.com/2023/06/29/aalyria-awarded-nrl-soar-project-contract/">evaluating Aalyria's Tightbeam optical communication technology</a>.</div></span></span></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-67826128240289028292022-09-27T10:18:00.021-07:002023-10-04T19:57:40.938-07:00Aalyria, a space Internet startup with nearly a decade's worth of intellectual property from Alphabet<div><i><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCV-bBiCa9q5TlQ1gyADJqXX75VYCkSvGBe7JIqk-QAKjtEt_4nVrE1e3nETzb9Yrj9KIf4gITIdk1bW9mtt_UDKYGm5Hrb5zjKaYTLiA1G5QmcF-fYzYgiDLXgSeYQnIjNEeVvmBkUHzbXAL3Vt9rr2Ncsxuwh1rTUoAA7-LnY-wBwyhpGps/s1920/AalyriaMultiOrbit.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCV-bBiCa9q5TlQ1gyADJqXX75VYCkSvGBe7JIqk-QAKjtEt_4nVrE1e3nETzb9Yrj9KIf4gITIdk1bW9mtt_UDKYGm5Hrb5zjKaYTLiA1G5QmcF-fYzYgiDLXgSeYQnIjNEeVvmBkUHzbXAL3Vt9rr2Ncsxuwh1rTUoAA7-LnY-wBwyhpGps/w640-h360/AalyriaMultiOrbit.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />Has Aalyria's optical transmission technology eliminated the space-Earth communication bottleneck?</i></div><div><br /></div><div>Aalyria, a new space Internet company, just burst out of stealth mode. It is based on work done on Alphabet's "moonshot" Project Loon and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/google-spins-out-secret-hi-speed-telecom-project-called-aalyria.html">Alphabet transferred</a> almost a decade’s worth of technology IP, patents, office space, and other assets to Aalyria in return for an equity stake in the company. Spacetime is Aalyria's intelligent network orchestration technology and Tightbeam is its advanced atmospheric laser communications technology.</div><div></div><div></div><div><b>Spacetime</b></div><div><b></b></div><div></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4soOg6Qaf5urWT-x900AEvJI0P1DpjpmVdaKZ3mdINtrAWwRyybscNCsosZLTNdvejTgN2aRkUxl1DcCo3NohzU-75pKaVQV5Ne5ssNNNrDn_UuneTioVLnd0bNnPl3aVLFX-VU2B0kKOyk-DHXVCKh_1251TRPQnLDEOON9FixUNprHOxSM/s400/loonballoons.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="245" data-original-width="400" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4soOg6Qaf5urWT-x900AEvJI0P1DpjpmVdaKZ3mdINtrAWwRyybscNCsosZLTNdvejTgN2aRkUxl1DcCo3NohzU-75pKaVQV5Ne5ssNNNrDn_UuneTioVLnd0bNnPl3aVLFX-VU2B0kKOyk-DHXVCKh_1251TRPQnLDEOON9FixUNprHOxSM/s320/loonballoons.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Loon balloons floated at an altitude of 18-25 km, above<br />birds and the weather. They navigated by moving up or<br />down to catch wind currents moving in different directions.</td></tr></tbody></table>Spacetime is a multi-layer, multi-orbit, software-defined networking system that was developed for <a href="https://x.company/projects/loon/">Project Loon</a>, one of Google's early efforts at <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2014/06/can-google-connect-other-three-billion.html">connecting rural areas and developing nations</a>. At one time, Telesat had agreed <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/02/google-baloons-and-telesat-satellites.html">to use the Google networking system</a> to link their low-Earth orbit and geostationary satellites, but Telesat has not yet launched its LEO constellation.</div><div>With the demise of Project Loon, the network management software was orphaned, but development continued and Aalyria says it now "optimizes and continually evolves the antenna link scheduling, network traffic routing, and spectrum resources -- responding in real-time to changing network requirements." That sounds like a tall order with constantly moving satellites, planes, ships, and vehicles, but the foundation was laid with drifting balloons.</div><div><div></div><div>This is an impressive claim, but it is not unique. Others <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">are working</a> on multi-orbit broadband networks and OneWeb <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/oneweb-and-intelsat-sign-first-multi.html">recently signed an agreement</a> for seamless interoperability between their low-Earth orbit satellites, Intelsat geosynchronous satellites, and airplanes. </div><div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Tightbeam</b></div><div><b></b></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTXWknJJscoKmZ7N1okB6uLvhiw3bpA-e2ufhsw9W-WY9MOVgfnyhICRp6SjgL8KYz9h8kZNe_VtB6QBSV8E-wt3ytXzZKDk9Y9rn8Qm1fFYAlII0KCwAeLbtNX-TZCkG8XfI3Zr57ecsdBS6nFIB8-VdFm6hV4KoIePNKH7hOy609zfl6dDU/s2008/LaserAalyvia.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1498" data-original-width="2008" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTXWknJJscoKmZ7N1okB6uLvhiw3bpA-e2ufhsw9W-WY9MOVgfnyhICRp6SjgL8KYz9h8kZNe_VtB6QBSV8E-wt3ytXzZKDk9Y9rn8Qm1fFYAlII0KCwAeLbtNX-TZCkG8XfI3Zr57ecsdBS6nFIB8-VdFm6hV4KoIePNKH7hOy609zfl6dDU/s320/LaserAalyvia.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.aalyria.com/">Source</a></td></tr></tbody></table>Tightbeam is a different story -- optical links are beginning to be used <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/01/spacex-is-first-with-inter-satellite.html">between satellites in space</a>, but as far as I know, no one is currently transmitting production volume optical data between satellites and Earth. Optical communication is winning out over radio frequency links in space because they are faster, more secure, and harder to jam than radio frequency and the terminals have lower mass and consume less power. What's not to like? Unfortunately, rain, clouds, dust, or heat distort and attenuate optical signals.</div><div></div><div>One can imagine building ground stations in places with dry climates and routing around bad weather when it occurs, but Aalyria says they have developed novel hardware and algorithms that correct for these distortions enabling them to transmit data through the atmosphere at speeds up to 1.6 terabits per second over hundreds of miles.</div><div></div><div>Recently capacity limitations have slowed Space Starlink, triggering <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/09/spacex-introduces-affordability-based.html">a shift to affordability-based pricing</a>, and <a href="https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hughesnet-viasat-performance-q2-2022">performance has continued to decline</a> since that time. Over-subscription in a local area or cell contributes to that decline, but, as Mike Puchol points out, the <a href="https://twitter.com/mikepuchol/status/1572470816771657729">scarcity of radio frequency spectrum for traffic between satellites and terrestrial gateways</a> is also a constraint. Gateway congestion is already a problem and Starlink and others are planning to launch many more satellites. Puchol predicts that we will have optical links between satellites and gateways and speculates that they <a href="https://esc.gsfc.nasa.gov/news/Small_Satellite_Makes_Big_Impact_on_Optical_Infusion">may use ultraviolet frequencies</a>. The Chinese are <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-us-china-technology-cold-war-battle.html">also working on optical communication</a> and they have conducted <a href="http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6813088/content.html">satellite-ground high-speed laser tests</a>.</div><div></div><div>Regardless of who does it first, we will eventually see optical links between satellites and the ground. I've not seen any description of Tightbeam technology or results of tests and demonstrations, but if Aalyria's technology lives up to its description, it is important.</div><div></div><div><b>Miscellaneous </b></div><div></div><div>A few miscellaneous points.</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I don't know where the name <i>Aalyria </i>comes from. I Googled it and only got references to the company itself. (There were tons of hits -- the company is hot).</li><li>I wonder if they plan to operate their own constellation or license the technology. I suspect that the prospective broadband licensees already have their own "Spacetime" but not their own "Tightbeam." At some point, Aalyria (or Amazon, Microsoft, or Google) will roll out optical ground stations.</li><li>My guess is that Tightbeam was developed by <a href="https://x.company/projects/taara/">Alphabet project Taara</a> which had been working on optical communication for Loon and <a href="https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021/09/alphabets-laser-internet-system-has-sent-700tb-of-data-with-99-9-uptime/">other applications</a>.</li><li>I tried for a couple of days to get more information on Tightbeam and its performance? Technical papers, experimental results, patents, etc. but email to <i>Aalyria.com</i> bounces.</li><li>Finally, I notice that the Board of Advisors has eleven members, four of which have prior Defense Department experience. That may have helped Aalyria secure an initial $8m contract with the Defense Innovation Unit. Another member is Vint Cerf, co-designer of TCP/IP, a Google VP, and most relevant in this context, a long-time proponent of interplanetary networking. Only one employee is listed as an optics engineer, but Board member Dr. Donald A. Cox III is an optical communications expert.</li></ul></div><div><p><b>Update 10/8/2022</b></p><p>Tim Deaver, VP of Strategic Solutions at Mynaric says <a href="https://blog.executivebiz.com/2022/09/executive-spotlight-with-tim-deaver-vp-of-strategic-solutions-at-mynaric/">they are working on space-ground, air-ground, and ground-ground terminals</a>. Will they be able to write terminal drivers and have them work in a Spacetime network?</p><p><b>Update 9/30/2023</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWHCoD8UmNYF8RvNv2OGKtmPBbob25kKXg1QdWE1ewgYzwq37QgF-rd03RYXOuu7qgDJIDNhwhRNvc0_npeLl8FtKK435V7OOMqot8-zmaSLYbmdPFk7tc1nd6wsHNNy_AIELqKx1sPqT-xltvVqO8DBG2hc9t-8pp-C-3bhtF9ZJLW6Nd5UJeCA/s2392/SpacetimeUserInterface.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="2392" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWHCoD8UmNYF8RvNv2OGKtmPBbob25kKXg1QdWE1ewgYzwq37QgF-rd03RYXOuu7qgDJIDNhwhRNvc0_npeLl8FtKK435V7OOMqot8-zmaSLYbmdPFk7tc1nd6wsHNNy_AIELqKx1sPqT-xltvVqO8DBG2hc9t-8pp-C-3bhtF9ZJLW6Nd5UJeCA/s320/SpacetimeUserInterface.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>Aalyria CTO Brian Barritt described and demonstrated Spacetime in a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH20eXsmHtI&t=1274s">terrific keynote talk</a> at the Satellite 2033 conference. He reviewed SpaceTime's history, scope, and features, but the highlight of the talk was a live demonstration of a hypothetical network with mobile and fixed assets on the ground, sea, air, LEO, and the Moon. Stay tuned for a promised Fall update presentation on Tightbeam.<p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-21804632744980490832022-09-04T14:02:00.001-07:002023-01-04T10:16:42.045-08:00SpaceX introduces affordability based Starlink pricing<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQkQ7Rz5g0iQPPX1IgvBCrc2LAXyr1ArZKZZaLUiYSKtHGhqbbVz7POGgJlDFJFLtgi1LRlm4pmQsLRkUmPdbKBNKXvgHC5ivA-aOar9HMFLk9UTiahsLa4LGopoXbnWWAKsSy7b8p_YzYg8ooxU50ELcPcv2sFT8XM_ZlKVyf9M04KrxFdbA/s2949/GDPPerCapitaMap.png" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="1534" data-original-width="2949" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQkQ7Rz5g0iQPPX1IgvBCrc2LAXyr1ArZKZZaLUiYSKtHGhqbbVz7POGgJlDFJFLtgi1LRlm4pmQsLRkUmPdbKBNKXvgHC5ivA-aOar9HMFLk9UTiahsLa4LGopoXbnWWAKsSy7b8p_YzYg8ooxU50ELcPcv2sFT8XM_ZlKVyf9M04KrxFdbA/s600/GDPPerCapitaMap.png" width="600" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">GDP per capita, 2022 (<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita_in_2022.svg">Source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><i>These are the first Starlink price or service changes, but they won't be the last.</i></div><div><br /></div><div>When SpaceX announced the price of the Starlink service, Elon Musk said <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1358964520522162176?lang=en">it would be the same everywhere</a> but I wrote that eventually it would be <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/11/satellite-broadband-pricing-is-complex.html">priced to be affordable in different nations</a>. (If you predict enough things, you are bound to get something right).</div><div><br /></div><div><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;">The fixed cost of a satellite Internet constellation is high -- satellites are expensive to make and launch -- but the cost of adding and servicing a new customer is low and the market is global. At the initial price of $500 for the terminal and $99 per month for the service, there would be unused capacity in poor nations and contention for limited capacity in wealthy nations.</span></div><div><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span></div><div><span face="Verdana, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13px;">Earlier this summer, we were seeing complaints that </span><span style="font-size: 13px;"><a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/07/starlink-sales-are-straining-capacity.html">Starlink sales were straining capacity</a> in parts of the U.S. and Canada, and last month SpaceX <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/08/spacex-starlinks-variable-pricing-pilot.html">announced variable pricing and an optional service cap in France</a>. That was dubbed a pilot study, but since then the variable pricing dam burst, and</span></span> customers in many nations <a href="https://www.notebookcheck.net/Starlink-satellite-Internet-monthly-subscription-prices-go-down-on-market-conditions.642742.0.html">received notification of permanent price cuts</a> because of "local market conditions" and "parity in purchasing power." </div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRSOnyHQxvsQ5EtC1qTlevRgCbColZVVbvRThkNpmCfXxMU_NUf9kq7-ymGQSWBSi6ZwC412IVQ6uDxL6t4v9-mYKNIw7pWolxwqa6o_XQ2rn7ebwudWERTSV9L7FF83UA8qdNblozl4Ab7_4iYUyL2wb_bMxsEid4-8dSsG4VKL4P5hnaYb8/s1243/StarlinkPriceCutBrazil.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1243" data-original-width="1242" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRSOnyHQxvsQ5EtC1qTlevRgCbColZVVbvRThkNpmCfXxMU_NUf9kq7-ymGQSWBSi6ZwC412IVQ6uDxL6t4v9-mYKNIw7pWolxwqa6o_XQ2rn7ebwudWERTSV9L7FF83UA8qdNblozl4Ab7_4iYUyL2wb_bMxsEid4-8dSsG4VKL4P5hnaYb8/w200-h200/StarlinkPriceCutBrazil.png" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">A 56% service price cut in Brazil</td></tr></tbody></table>This change has been <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/wx14dp/oh_hello_starlink/">discussed on Reddit</a> and a user established a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tuhyh6kbyDQ2D418ug_AgS1ZM_8MDDznrjWzDthU61w/edit#gid=0">crowd-sourced database</a> of Starlink terminal and service charges by nation. As of this writing, the database contains complete records for thirty-nine nations. The average terminal price, including shipping, is $493.99, and the average monthly service charge is $72.65. In eight nations, the service charge has been cut by over 50%. In general, service charge cuts are greater than terminal price cuts since SpaceX is already subsidizing terminal purchases. (The database is currently a shared Excel spreadsheet, but I would like to see a cleaned-up version as a page on Wikipedia or better yet on the Starlink Web site).<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>These are the first Starlink price or service changes, but they won't be the last. The technology, the product mix, and the market will continuously change, and SpaceX will eventually encounter competition in the non-residential satellite broadband market. They will need data-driven Ph.D. marketing managers to set prices, not MBAs.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 1/3/2023</b></div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCph7SDo5J6jMyNIOcOlwq0sfobD-rWwFvULNKyplJ_DPgb7dN8PflUd0ZNg17YHs-Rx25cCCWY3kqXy5op2WSt1NXzMcqqK0QS199NC3c0InzIkzxlYmp5vy1N8CRO_TdQko3f8-rZccH6m8jYk71ijZ71_iy2p091yG6awemc9ZLjeUzq4w/s746/StarlinkSpeedOoklaUS.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="746" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCph7SDo5J6jMyNIOcOlwq0sfobD-rWwFvULNKyplJ_DPgb7dN8PflUd0ZNg17YHs-Rx25cCCWY3kqXy5op2WSt1NXzMcqqK0QS199NC3c0InzIkzxlYmp5vy1N8CRO_TdQko3f8-rZccH6m8jYk71ijZ71_iy2p091yG6awemc9ZLjeUzq4w/s320/StarlinkSpeedOoklaUS.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgJScijHH9oKh69J0hCJ4IA2_KxOdw?e=YZC9vs">Source</a></td></tr></tbody></table><a href="http://ookla.com">Ookla</a> reports crowd-sourced speed tests for Starlink every quarter. As seen here, performance in the U. S. has dropped in the last three reported quarters. </div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-80081908141031309262022-08-17T14:51:00.024-07:002023-12-01T09:21:53.340-08:00OneWeb and Intelsat Sign the First Multi-Orbit Broadband Agreement – More to Come<p><i></i></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw5iBey9pMgmdgBcRhVB7Rj7ukuxHGuz8kqQ0d1ka0AmWQs_b0j11Y_LZiF4FQXwjgui-rAMAMS9OrpL1vWUO17OLn_udLMy0J6Ri1gDN7V21SXfg0VB6qRPkmxXvKfD-IlQX6jKJsiRt7-ms553LE0hHWidxHedzetRO8VXAl1PY5K1ejyHY/s2224/OneWebFlightTest.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1222" data-original-width="2224" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw5iBey9pMgmdgBcRhVB7Rj7ukuxHGuz8kqQ0d1ka0AmWQs_b0j11Y_LZiF4FQXwjgui-rAMAMS9OrpL1vWUO17OLn_udLMy0J6Ri1gDN7V21SXfg0VB6qRPkmxXvKfD-IlQX6jKJsiRt7-ms553LE0hHWidxHedzetRO8VXAl1PY5K1ejyHY/w640-h352/OneWebFlightTest.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">A Boeing 777 connected to OneWeb LEO and Intelsat GEO satellites during this test flight. (Image from <a href="https://oneweb.net/resources/oneweb-aviation-inflight-demo">demo video</a>).<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><i>Last week, OneWeb announced the first of what I expect to be many multi-orbit deals. </i><div><i><br /></i><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLKFoCMgoD3KJWHEtDBvKsk4pmkpnQz1Co94xTPasSu-BRI6e3Mah5Y7N0Giu_KdGtsrk6XCZ9G3YLYmkxL3CKPt7S2ds8E8U_mUXKmD9AI6x3yQaYfwx3Xam6mGQQ6d5vZpUJpkQm9BAT-hNNmQTXngF_tfniSWtuqZSNqcIpietjM8kPteY/s747/leomeogeoillustration.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="378" data-original-width="747" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLKFoCMgoD3KJWHEtDBvKsk4pmkpnQz1Co94xTPasSu-BRI6e3Mah5Y7N0Giu_KdGtsrk6XCZ9G3YLYmkxL3CKPt7S2ds8E8U_mUXKmD9AI6x3yQaYfwx3Xam6mGQQ6d5vZpUJpkQm9BAT-hNNmQTXngF_tfniSWtuqZSNqcIpietjM8kPteY/w320-h162/leomeogeoillustration.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">LEO, MEO, and GEO satellites (not to scale)</td></tr></tbody></table>Last October, <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">I reviewed multi-orbit tests and plans</a> of several low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), and Geostationary (GEO) broadband satellite companies, and quoted Neil Masterson, CEO of LEO operator OneWeb as saying "Interoperability with GEO satellites must happen -- it's common sense ... Customers don't care whether it's a LEO satellite or a GEO satellite -- all they want is connectivity." <p></p><p>In June, OneWeb and Stellar <a href="https://oneweb.net/resources/oneweb-aviation-inflight-demo">demonstrated in-flight connectivity to a Boeing 777 jetliner</a>, achieving a <a href="https://spacenews.com/oneweb-tests-inflight-connectivity-on-boeing-777/">download speed of 260 mb/s</a>. Ben Griffin, OneWeb vice president, says the speed is constrained by the current aircraft antenna and their satellite <a href="https://www.podbean.com/site/EpisodeDownload/PB128AF73324HK">spot beams are capable of 500 mb/s</a>. (<a href="https://www.boeing.com/farnborough2014/pdf/BCA/bck-777%20Family%20Backgrounder.pdf">777 carrying capacity</a> is from 312-388 passengers).</p><p>Last week, OneWeb announced the first of what I expect to be many multi-orbit deals. Intelsat, <a href="https://www.intelsat.com/solutions/aviation/">an established GEO provider of in-flight connectivity</a>, will distribute <a href="https://oneweb.net/resources/intelsat-and-oneweb-partnership-brings-multi-orbit-connectivity-airlines-worldwide">OneWeb's forthcoming LEO in-flight connectivity</a>. The companies expect the multi-orbit solution to be in service by 2024 and they promise <i>seamless </i>connectivity with OneWeb LEO satellites for latency-sensitive applications and Intelsat GEO satellites for applications where latency is not critical. </p><p>Note the emphasis on the word <i>seamless </i>above. The transition between constellations must be transparent to users. Automatic routing based on packet type is required and <a href="https://twitter.com/trengriffin/status/1556970368669081600">is well understood and implemented in different systems</a>. For example, OneWeb had previously <a href="https://oneweb.net/resources/hughes-and-oneweb-announce-agreements-low-earth-orbit-satellite-service-us-and-india">demonstrated LEO-GEO connectivity with Hughes</a> using their <a href="https://www.hughes.com/resources/press-releases/hughes-introduces-activeclassifiertm-technology-wide-area-enterprise-grade">ActiveClassifier technology</a> that "automatically identifies different types of data and apps and tags them with a specific priority setting using advanced heuristics algorithms."</p><p><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;">It is likely that OneWeb will soon be interoperating with three GEO operators. They have demonstrated seamless LEO-GEO integration with Hughes, have agreed to partner with Intelsat on in-flight connectivity, and have signed a memorandum of understanding <a href="https://oneweb.net/resources/eutelsat-and-oneweb-combine-leap-forward-satellite-connectivity">to be acquired by GEO operator Eutelsat</a>. This is the sort of interoperability promised by </span></span>Neil Masterson. </p><p>Will we see multi-orbit connectivity standards?</p><p>This is the first LEO-GEO broadband effort, but I expect many others because they solve problems for both LEO and GEO Internet service providers. LEO service providers are capacity constrained. SpaceX's Starlink LEO service is currently <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/07/starlink-sales-are-straining-capacity.html">over-subscribed at some locations in the U.S. and Canada</a>. They will add capacity by launching improved satellites and offloading latency-tolerant traffic to a GEO partner, freeing capacity for more valuable latency-sensitive traffic</p><p><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px;">GEO operators will seek LEO partners or, as in the case of Telesat, develop their own LEO constellations to provide low look-angle connectivity in polar regions and to serve latency-sensitive applications. Dan Goldberg, CEO of GEO ISP Telesat, acknowledged this when <a href="https://themarketgossip.com/2021/04/08/telesat-has-finished-funding-for-the-lightspeed-constellation/">explaining why they were creating their own LEO constellation</a> saying, “</span></span><span style="color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">I guess it’s something we had to do. For us, you have no choice but to land at LEO.”</span></p><p>This post focuses on one application, in-flight connectivity, and one LEO operator, OneWeb, but this is just the start. For example, Intelsat and OneWeb <a href="https://www.intelsat.com/newsroom/intelsat-and-oneweb-demo-global-multi-orbit-satellite-service-to-u-s-department-of-defense/">have also been working on military applications</a> and Viasat <a href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/08/09/viasat-vsat-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript/">is working on multi-orbit solutions</a> with several non-GEO operators or prospective operators and <a href="https://spacewatch.global/2022/07/esa-selects-viasat-to-conduct-multi-layered-satcom-study/">conducting a multi-layer satellite communication study</a> for the European Space Agency. Intelsat is reportedly <a href="https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2022/08/04/ses-and-intelsat-reportedly-in-merger-talks/">in merger talks</a> with MEO operator SES. The elephant in the room is SpaceX. Elon Musk is a big fan of do-it-yourself integration, but it's hard to imagine SpaceX operating its own GEO satellites -- partnering with and launching satellites for a GEO operator seems more likely. I wonder whether <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/03/guowang-starlink-will-be-chinas-global.html">China SatNet</a> is looking for a GEO partner.</p><p><b>Update 3/11/2023</b></p><p>OneWeb <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">considers multi-orbit interoperability a strategic capability</a> and now Eutelsat <a href="https://spacenews.com/intelsat-and-eutelsat-forge-multi-orbit-capacity-deal/">has signed a multi-million euro deal</a> to provide their GEO capacity and OneWeb's LEO capacity to Intelsat. </p><p>OneWeb is expected <a href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2023/03/08/two-more-launches-for-oneweb-this-month-will-enable-networks-global-coverage/">to launch the final batch</a> of its first-generation LEO satellites this month and be in full operation in a few months. <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=eutelsat+satellites&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS986US986&oq=eutelsat+satellites&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l3j0i20i263i512j0i512l2j69i60.9411j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">Eutelsat operates a large constellation</a> of GEO satellites <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=intelsat+satellites&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS986US986&oq=intelsat+satellites&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30l9.11357j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8">as does Intelsat</a>.</p><p>This gives OneWeb a lead over SpaceX and other potential LEO providers of aircraft connectivity. It will be interesting how the handoffs between LEO and GEO satellites are handled, how it affects the passenger user interface, and how well in-flight connectivity performs in a large, fully booked airliner.</p><p><b>Update 11/12/2023</b></p><p>Eutelsat has said full-scale OneWeb Gen 2 satellites would be bulkier, able to provide three to five times more capacity, and would only be around 300 in number because <a href="https://spacenews.com/uk-pushing-to-combine-oneweb-gen-2-and-european-sovereign-constellation-efforts/">Eutelsat’s geostationary fleet would help cover high-demand areas</a>. However, last year Eutelsat <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/10/multi-orbit-broadband-internet-service.html">ordered a multi-orbit compatible geostationary broadband satellite</a> serving the Americas, implying that multi-orbit connectivity would not be available with its legacy satellites.</p><p><b>Update 12/1/2023</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgntxVfUaGng0QyDzZmyg574OMly072pE-lXODZIByJBRKavVl0kfroEX71kvhgtIsGhTKHCxyQoSqX4N3Vn6eoT4Vm8eQYNrw568gPLvS-abLJdGBs8DLDHLN09m99cvwSG4wL14qrUUHhfV2xbY3VBUQaKRrnkG0rgOeWVeyauvbVPOXWf41zpw/s2048/IntelsatMultiOrbitAntenna.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgntxVfUaGng0QyDzZmyg574OMly072pE-lXODZIByJBRKavVl0kfroEX71kvhgtIsGhTKHCxyQoSqX4N3Vn6eoT4Vm8eQYNrw568gPLvS-abLJdGBs8DLDHLN09m99cvwSG4wL14qrUUHhfV2xbY3VBUQaKRrnkG0rgOeWVeyauvbVPOXWf41zpw/w240-h180/IntelsatMultiOrbitAntenna.jpeg" width="240" /></a></div>Intelsat has signed multi-orbit deals with both SpaceX and OneWeb. The <a href="https://spacenews.com/intelsat-steps-up-partnership-with-spacex-in-multi-orbit-antenna/ ">flat panel antenna on this vehicle</a> can communicate with both Intelsat's GEO satellites and SpaceX's Starlink LEO satellites. This ruggedized antenna is only available for DOD and some other government agencies for now. Intelsat will also <a href="https://spacenews.com/intelsat-to-bring-multi-orbit-wi-fi-to-regional-american-airlines-jets/">offer multi-orbit service</a> with Eutelsat-OneWeb LEO satellites on 500 American Airlines regional jets starting in early 2024.<p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-49116836533031531912022-08-05T16:05:00.012-07:002022-08-08T22:42:05.199-07:00SpaceX Starlink's variable pricing pilot in France is good business and good karma.<p><i>An idle satellite over Africa is neither generating revenue for SpaceX nor serving the population.</i></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKRUYIYjye3-q4F8DhR08-1p3jBeRmuB_W9eF_PnpzUJqkANV06kNcvlLFnq0Cm7BwgneZnPcUZ7oDar-0pAVzWqFgTzzrN5nPXZaoPigJru_e7MaXowPYe9CX4TiT1pTpzCsKOozVJcyAsJpX7LLUmLeAxi6FhyLI1bVgPDVf2vbDIorAHGI/s1473/StarlinkFrancePilot.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1473" data-original-width="700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKRUYIYjye3-q4F8DhR08-1p3jBeRmuB_W9eF_PnpzUJqkANV06kNcvlLFnq0Cm7BwgneZnPcUZ7oDar-0pAVzWqFgTzzrN5nPXZaoPigJru_e7MaXowPYe9CX4TiT1pTpzCsKOozVJcyAsJpX7LLUmLeAxi6FhyLI1bVgPDVf2vbDIorAHGI/s320/StarlinkFrancePilot.png" width="152" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: right;"><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/wfd0sb/and_suddenly_starlink_prices_are_halved_in_france/">Source</a></td></tr></tbody></table>Starlink <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink">is available in 37 nations</a> and the price for best effort service was the same everywhere until August 3 when variable pricing with throttling became available in France. I predicted they would eventually <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/11/satellite-broadband-pricing-is-complex.html">shift from uniform to affordable pricing</a> some time ago, but why did they do it now?<p></p><p>Starlink first became available in the U.S. and Canada and <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/07/starlink-sales-are-straining-capacity.html">sales are beginning to outrun the available capacity</a>. At oversubscribed locations, the best effort is unacceptable, median performance is slipping overall, and the recent announcement of new, non-residential services will exacerbate the problem. Launching new satellites will ease today's congestion and capacity will increase rapidly when version 2 satellites are launched, but demand will always be uneven and capacity limited,</p><p>Under <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/wfd0sb/comment/iit5py9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3">the pilot program in France</a>, the monthly service fee drops from €99 to €50/month. A Fair Use policy will begin in October. Users who consume 250 GB/month or less will be prioritized. Those who exceed 250 GB/month will still have access to unlimited data but may experience slower speeds during times of network congestion. They can also choose to purchase additional data to reclaim priority status for €10/100GB. </p><p>This is a pilot program, and it will be carefully studied and tweaked. For example, they will be able to vary the congestion threshold criteria, the performance goals of prioritized and limited service, and the frequency of checking a cell to determine whether prioritization is required. SpaceX may have selected France for the pilot study because it is demographically similar the U.S. and Canada.</p><p>It is not surprising to see Starlink begin to transition to variable pricing. When I was a child, phone call charges were reduced on Sundays and during the evening and mobile phone companies offer variable price plans today. </p><p>Starlink service is currently available in thirty-seven nations, four of which are in Latin America. None are in Africa or Asia and an idle satellite over Africa is neither generating revenue for SpaceX nor serving the population. Ideally, the full capacity of the satellite constellation would be utilized at every location and time because the marginal cost of serving a new customer when and where there is excess capacity is near zero. (SpaceX does not offer residential installation or support). That optimal goal is unreachable, but I would be surprised if, eventually, we do not see pricing for affordability -- different service plans and terminal prices in different countries. </p><p>(For a related discussion <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/11/satellite-broadband-pricing-is-complex.html">see this post</a>).</p>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-39523099525313914492022-07-28T13:06:00.001-07:002022-07-28T13:13:26.296-07:00Starlink sales are straining capacity in parts of the U.S. and Canada<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiKDOotpMFDo0L3bdV7lrOJLFc5GavmGClp-VaMkA9jxKzgC28igTh1swZBSqUsWS-t1ZLbSx52t1ha_LW0X3pS8kDY3S8EXRNoaLSRw_gtrUK3Spp0fkreNENVF2dxrKyG9lN1-le5zg8SmiZL2-Y7XtxFA7k_-VUqG0VjsAflmCnmAfTZJY/s1201/OOKLAResults2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="1201" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiKDOotpMFDo0L3bdV7lrOJLFc5GavmGClp-VaMkA9jxKzgC28igTh1swZBSqUsWS-t1ZLbSx52t1ha_LW0X3pS8kDY3S8EXRNoaLSRw_gtrUK3Spp0fkreNENVF2dxrKyG9lN1-le5zg8SmiZL2-Y7XtxFA7k_-VUqG0VjsAflmCnmAfTZJY/w640-h334/OOKLAResults2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">OOKLA Speedtest results for the U/ S. and Canada (<a href="https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hughesnet-viasat-performance-q1-2022">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: small;">On June 5th Elon Musk said SpaceX had <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/ten-spacex-starlink-updates.html">nearly 500,000 customers in 32 nations and 9 languages</a>. By now there must be 500,000 customers most of whom are in the U. S. and Canada and their performance is suffering.</span></p><p>In the first quarter of this year, <a href="https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hughesnet-viasat-performance-q1-2022">OOKLA reported</a> that the median Starlink download speed fell from 104.97 to 99.55Mbps in the U.S. and from 106.64 to 97.4 Mbps in Canada. Upload speed dropped from 12.5 to 9.3Mbps in the U.S and from 12.82 to 10.7 in Canada and has been dropping slowly since the first quarter of last year in both nations. Median latency increased from 40 to 43ms in the U.S. and from 51 to 55ms in Canada during the year.</p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">A few of the first-quarter customers were small businesses, </span><a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2021/08/spacex-starlink-comes-to-south-america.html">rural schools or clinics</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">, etc. but the overwhelming majority are residential. OOKLA hasn't published second-quarter results yet, but they may be worse </span><span style="color: #222222;">because </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">SpaceX has <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/ten-spacex-starlink-updates.html">entered several non-residential markets</a> -- business, roaming (RV), and maritime -- during the quarter. They have also deployed mobile roaming on trains and vehicles in Ukraine and they are testing aircraft connectivity so we may soon see these services offered commercially.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">There are also anecdotal reports of declining performance <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/vsx8ie/speeds_have_slowed_significantly_no_obstructions/.">like this one</a> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">on Reddit Starlink discussion: </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">"</span><span style="color: #222222;">Speeds have slowed significantly. No obstructions, and support is no help. KY, USA."<span style="background-color: white;"> This post describes one person's experience but has 103 upvotes and 142 comments, many describing similar experiences. </span></span><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="background-color: white;">Note that the user found that </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">"support is no help" and future customers will need more support than today's residential early adopters who tend to be technically proficient. SpaceX will soon be competing with OneWeb in the non-residential markets and this sort of experience and publicity will harm Starlink's reputation.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">That's the bad news. The good news is that SpaceX is rapidly adding capacity. They are <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/spacex-keeps-up-record-launch-pace-with-starlink-launch/ar-AAZV8Dq?li=BBnb7Kz">launching satellites at an unprecedented rate</a> and the Version 1.5 satellites they are now launching have inter-satellite laser links. Furthermore, when </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Starship is ready, it will be capable of launching version 2 satellites which Elon Musk says <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/can-spacex-launch-version-2-starlink.html">will offer n</a></span><span style="color: #222222;"><a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/can-spacex-launch-version-2-starlink.html">early an order of magnitude</a> more data throughput than the version 1 satellites they will eventually replace. Maybe they should slow down sales in oversubscribed areas for a while.</span></p><p><br /></p><table cellpadding="0" class="Bs nH iY bAt" role="presentation" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; color: #202124; display: block; font-family: Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; padding: 0px; position: static; width: 1356px;"><tbody></tbody></table><br />Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-43472737541732367052022-06-18T20:56:00.025-07:002022-08-31T07:49:49.739-07:00Ten SpaceX Starlink updates<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwH-_xyPFmsSZiN9i2xPssAX6pDIH2L7DsY7cY4D4GTBwAN7jKwEteHlBWVfWC4sOKoDHQeu3D9eompd2rhwzns0sbyQJuLgcihTtCoCdsH_zf0VRZeagZ2Bnb8iLiBFIlHrZbL0Twl-w2Z8aKbfj1XzNMwD-eFmET1sRRQ7xliLmc3d1YYKs/s2968/StarlinkAvailabilityMap2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1529" data-original-width="2968" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwH-_xyPFmsSZiN9i2xPssAX6pDIH2L7DsY7cY4D4GTBwAN7jKwEteHlBWVfWC4sOKoDHQeu3D9eompd2rhwzns0sbyQJuLgcihTtCoCdsH_zf0VRZeagZ2Bnb8iLiBFIlHrZbL0Twl-w2Z8aKbfj1XzNMwD-eFmET1sRRQ7xliLmc3d1YYKs/w640-h330/StarlinkAvailabilityMap2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">Starlink availability map (<a href="https://www.starlink.com/map?source=business">Source</a>)<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table>Starlink now has nearly 500,000 users and is available in 32 countries and nine languages. It is either available, wait-listed, or coming soon in every nation except Afghanistan, Belarus, Cuba, China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela.<div><br /><div><div>There are now <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/five-thousand-spacex-starlink-terminals.html">15,000 Starlink terminals in</a> Ukraine with <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-starlink-in-ukraine-week-later.html">service throughout the nation</a> through connections to ground stations in Poland, Lithuania, and Turkey and they have <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-starlink-service-in-ukraine.html">made a significant contribution</a> in the war with Russia. For better or worse, they have <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-unprecedented-role-of-internet-in.html">demonstrated the value of low-Earth orbit satellites</a> in combat.</div><div><br /></div><div>A Chinese research paper <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3178939/china-military-needs-defence-against-potential-starlink-threat">called for the development of systems</a> to track, monitor, and disable Starlink satellites. Quotes include "The country needs to be able to disable or destroy SpaceX’s Starlink satellites if they threaten national security" and "A combination of soft and hard kill methods should be adopted to make some Starlink satellites lose their functions and destroy the constellation’s operating system.” The paper in Chinese is <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ungIfM5vw3PBB4F9b-TOniJVetQbp2qu/view">here</a> and an English translation is <a href="https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/25/prc-defense-starlink-countermeasures/">here</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>SpaceX has begun launching version 1.5 satellites with optical terminals and Elon Musk says <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1535394359373443073">they will be operational</a> by the end of the year. They are about to run a test <a href="https://wccftech.com/starlink-ready-to-turn-on-laser-satellites-for-internet-coverage/">using laser links to provide connectivity in Polar regions</a> (above 53 degrees latitude) where there are no ground stations. It will take some time for them to connect all the satellites in the constellation in an orthogonal mesh, but <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-cool-simulation-of-spacexs-revised.html">this simulation</a> predicts a ~2x latency improvement over long links when the mesh is complete. </div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEBrvb0lYzTxlvHgqxtAd8BkoFWNS_h2jD1A1OJPNtk_tmjP-Na47oFEZuARyLdWEnX1ONQtWAQ-k-e4c_ZgBFxV_Ji0_syWx3cqc3v5EWXznp-XteCyeifwaZxfP-TOh2-FqIzRIumgZnX10Ge_lM88p9m63hIfkG35YC4I4kJHknlZVAUWY/s879/StarlinkReflection.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="879" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEBrvb0lYzTxlvHgqxtAd8BkoFWNS_h2jD1A1OJPNtk_tmjP-Na47oFEZuARyLdWEnX1ONQtWAQ-k-e4c_ZgBFxV_Ji0_syWx3cqc3v5EWXznp-XteCyeifwaZxfP-TOh2-FqIzRIumgZnX10Ge_lM88p9m63hIfkG35YC4I4kJHknlZVAUWY/s320/StarlinkReflection.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Astronomers worry about reflections from larger Version 2<br />satellites. (<a href="https://spacenews.com/astronomers-renew-concerns-about-starlink-satellite-brightness/">source</a>)</td></tr></tbody></table>The version 1.5 satellites <a href="https://spacenews.com/astronomers-renew-concerns-about-starlink-satellite-brightness/">do not have visors that reduce reflection</a> which interferes with astronomical observation because they were incompatible with the laser terminals. Principal engineer David Goldstein says they're working on technology that will make version 2 satellites ten times dimmer than <a href="https://www.surreynanosystems.com/about/vantablack">Vantablack paint</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>SpaceX <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-spacex-starlink-roaming-test.html">tested Starlink roaming in the US</a> and later <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/03/spacex-starlink-in-ukraine-week-later.html">in Ukraine</a> and they have now rolled out <a href="https://support.starlink.com/">two new commercial services</a>, Starlink for RVs, a low-priority service that can be paused, and Residential Starlink + Portability which provides priority service at your registered residence, but low-priority service when away. Elon Musk reported that <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1535145201903312896">they had 30,000 Starlink-for-RV orders</a> within three weeks of its availability.</div><div><br /></div><div>Service is not yet offered for moving vehicles, but it has worked well in the tests mentioned above and in Ukraine. Since the technology works, they may be delaying availability until they have a capacity allocation/pricing scheme, or they might be working on a new terminal. How long will it be before they have a terminal for Tesla and other cars and trucks? (They will eventually be <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-geely-holding-group-ghg-is-private.html">competing with Geely</a> for automobile connectivity).</div><div><br /></div><div><div>Starlink's new <a href="https://www.starlink.com/business">business service</a> is intended for locations with up to twenty users. It includes a $2,500 terminal with a high-gain antenna and promises download speeds of 150-500 Mbps and latency of 20-40ms. It includes 24/7, prioritized support and a publicly routable IPv4 address, but does not offer on-site support or a guaranteed service-level agreement.</div><div><br /></div><div>Starlink began by serving the consumer market, but they have begun selling to air and ship lines. Starlink has contracted to offer service on <a href="https://www.jsx.com/home/search">JSX</a> and <a href="https://www.space.com/hawaiian-airlines-spacex-starlink-internet-service">Hawaiian Airlines</a> and has applied to serve <a href="https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2022/06/10/royal-caribbean-wants-add-elon-musks-starlink-high-speed-internet-its-cruise-ships">Royal Caribbean</a> cruise ships. The airlines will use a <a href="https://twitter.com/AirlineFlyer/status/1536345951354298368">new high-gain antenna</a> that can deliver 500 Mbps down and40-50 up with 400w peak power consumption. I'll be curious to see what sort of terminal they will have for cruise ships with thousands of passengers but little nearby congestion when at sea.</div><div><br /></div></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFmfZsOV0ffosWXS04YtDPcZWYzMlXrAZAgoD_oCOry-Q0GQGqmCjxEMuSjwC4O03dX5aCu8g-OWVpc6TWt3mYus-VLrc97FC1m6P_vqYZ5chVoWZyDv6IbVA0MQfFZBq871WYHRzP2qJqmtUTt5sV-OOpp04Kiht4lz97uQMi84femu8pPk/s1616/StarlinkSatelliteDucking.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1424" data-original-width="1616" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFmfZsOV0ffosWXS04YtDPcZWYzMlXrAZAgoD_oCOry-Q0GQGqmCjxEMuSjwC4O03dX5aCu8g-OWVpc6TWt3mYus-VLrc97FC1m6P_vqYZ5chVoWZyDv6IbVA0MQfFZBq871WYHRzP2qJqmtUTt5sV-OOpp04Kiht4lz97uQMi84femu8pPk/w320-h282/StarlinkSatelliteDucking.png" width="320" /></a></div>SpaceX published a detailed description of its approach to space sustainability and safety in a <a href="https://www.spacex.com/updates/">February 22 post on their Starlink Updates blog</a>. The post reports that Starlink satellites made 3,300 autonomous maneuvers to avoid collision during the second half of 2021 and describes the policies and technology Starlink uses to avoid collisions, including "ducking" -- retracting the solar panel and orienting their attitude to have the smallest possible cross-section in the direction of conjunction. Unfortunately, SpaceX cannot solve the space debris problem unilaterally and all debris objects cannot be tracked from Earth, though improved <a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2019/05/might-satellite-constellation-learn-to.html">tracking from satellites</a> might help and at least one company, <a href="https://www.privateer.com/">Privateer</a>, is exploring that possibility.</div><div><br /></div></div></div><div>(Click <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/can-spacex-launch-version-2-starlink.html">here</a> for a Starship update).</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 6/29/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGpNO-iCCyhN1VdqP8N7CiNoQTZBEM9WP2eLoqQVrD5ez2FsOVRk_cNEvp8tsCtP4r5D5vTIYEZtFLVX1aR5e9seX5BRZBZ0ZWkEG7XAuiRA8NSzOZqiGm1ftc14PGBzlUdD3-Lu2kwN9xg0bbakYJEfdhftmbMjVeNzu_S5EhLVc8XluZ8qo/s1200/SixDishysShip.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGpNO-iCCyhN1VdqP8N7CiNoQTZBEM9WP2eLoqQVrD5ez2FsOVRk_cNEvp8tsCtP4r5D5vTIYEZtFLVX1aR5e9seX5BRZBZ0ZWkEG7XAuiRA8NSzOZqiGm1ftc14PGBzlUdD3-Lu2kwN9xg0bbakYJEfdhftmbMjVeNzu_S5EhLVc8XluZ8qo/s320/SixDishysShip.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>Royal Caribbean <a href="https://www.royalcaribbeanblog.com/2022/06/28/i-tried-elon-musks-starlink-internet-royal-caribbean-cruise-ship">has run an informal test of Starlink</a> aboard one of their cruise ships. Starlink significantly outperformed geostationary satellite service with a Ping time as low as 38ms and up and download times as high as 77/03 and 15.72 mb/s. That is fast enough to stream video or teleconference but does not shed much light on what to expect when connectivity is distributed throughout a ship with 5,000 passengers and a crew. It will be interesting to see how LEO service on ships ends up competing with <a href="https://www.ses.com/find-service/cruise">O3b Mpower MEO connectivity</a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 6/30/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mikhail Fedorov, said that in the future, <a href="https://digitnews.in/internet-from-starlink-may-appear-in-ukrainian-trains/">Internet from Starlink will appear on Ukrainian trains</a> and it has been demonstrated in <a href="https://digitnews.in/internet-from-starlink-may-appear-in-ukrainian-trains/">a successful pilot test</a> in which Starlink technicians were surprised that it worked at high speeds. Ukraine’s Special Communication and Information Protection State Service chief Yurii Shchyhol said <a href="https://tech.liga.net/ua/ukraine/interview/glava-gosspetssvyazi-yuriy-schigol-o-svyazi-v-hersone-tehnosanktsiyah-i-starlink-v-poezdah">Starlink will be available in all Ukraine Railway trains</a> by the end of 2022.</div><div><br /></div><div>It looks like SpaceX is using Ukraine as a testbed for connectivity in moving vehicles and as a war tool in general.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 7/1/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div><div>The FCC <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-approves-spacexs-starlink-internet-use-with-ships-boats-planes-2022-06-30/">has authorized Starlink connectivity</a> to RVs, large trucks, ships, and planes. They expect to be on planes "very shortly" according to Jonathan Hofeller, Starlink's commercial sales chief. Elon Musk has said he didn't see "connecting Tesla cars to Starlink, as our terminal is much too big." That's true for today's terminals, but I wouldn't rule it out in the future -- by SpaceX or, as mentioned above, Geely.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 7/7/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.starlink.com/maritime">Starlink Maritime</a> is available now near coasts where they can reach terrestrial ground stations. Coverage will expand in the fourth quarter of this year and expand to global coverage in the first quarter of next year as more satellites are equipped with inter-satellite laser terminals.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_HF7f7vUasX0Gw6ttml1xLkXANXvJQnK_Y4JAwbzz-8IZ6_mlVQ8KNxDuEjVGgIykr3zJYTZXeDIw5tgSRXaWtelcnC1itg8veYKQ28MzPn99txCQ09XGhmX1PP_isAagWzwLU6QP80dLDri7OFNmIEs50DuJ1EtcCq9S1flbfD77a-wrQj4/s2393/StarlinkMaritime.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1502" data-original-width="2393" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_HF7f7vUasX0Gw6ttml1xLkXANXvJQnK_Y4JAwbzz-8IZ6_mlVQ8KNxDuEjVGgIykr3zJYTZXeDIw5tgSRXaWtelcnC1itg8veYKQ28MzPn99txCQ09XGhmX1PP_isAagWzwLU6QP80dLDri7OFNmIEs50DuJ1EtcCq9S1flbfD77a-wrQj4/w400-h251/StarlinkMaritime.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>With a price of $5,000 per month and a one-time hardware cost of $10,000 for two <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545166089675362305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545166089675362305%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.teslarati.com%2Fstarlink-maritime%2F">high-performance, ruggedized terminals</a> for a download speed of "up to" 350 Mbps, they are marketing to merchant vessels, oil companies and Russian oligarchs with Yachts, not the few thousand customers on a Royal Caribbean cruise ship. Latency <a href="https://www.starlink.com/legal/documents/DOC-1002-69942-69?regionCode=US">will on average be greater</a> than terrestrial Starlink due to hops through inter-satellite links. Customers can pause and resume service at any time, but when they turn it on, <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/starlink-maritime-satellite-internet-054320228.html">they will have to pay for the month</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>For those who might be worried about performance in severe weather and rough seas, SpaceX points out that Starlink is currently being used to get <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1545126999219286017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1545126999219286017%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tesmanian.com%2Fblogs%2Ftesmanian-blog%2Fstarlink-4">high-quality video of rocket landings at sea</a>, providing continuous coverage next to engines capable of generating up to 190,000 pounds of force.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 7/15/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div>The first phase of Starlink launches consists of 4,408 satellites in five orbital shells. Over half of those satellites <a href="https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/05/13/spacex-passes-2500-satellites-launched-for-companys-starlink-network/#:~:text=More%20than%202%2C200%20Starlink%20satellites,network%20of%204%2C408%20Starlink%20satellites.">are in orbit already</a>, but just last week they launched the first forty-six of the 520 operational V 1.5 satellites that will be in near-polar orbits with inclinations of 97.6 degrees.</div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8lvUtsHUI0_BnEgpNeO_zjei7bmvhq0lXUTdWF9rsUsXowGic-tdFrVsGk35BE1kcX2hgEqlwxBIdl6hTA8UG3-7JvulUTq5wDqfKflEljclhsl60tnYfq5MKXALjeo5A-5VFOhO3KAlMEtmeph-i702RLssn_XeSzG45_TkEwEhkYG9o10U" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="114" data-original-width="640" height="114" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8lvUtsHUI0_BnEgpNeO_zjei7bmvhq0lXUTdWF9rsUsXowGic-tdFrVsGk35BE1kcX2hgEqlwxBIdl6hTA8UG3-7JvulUTq5wDqfKflEljclhsl60tnYfq5MKXALjeo5A-5VFOhO3KAlMEtmeph-i702RLssn_XeSzG45_TkEwEhkYG9o10U=w640-h114" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://cis471.blogspot.com/2020/04/spacex-applies-for-constellation-re.html">Phase 1 orbital shells</a> -- 4408 satellites</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div>These polar orbit satellites will enable them to offer global coverage on land and sea as described above.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 8/31/2022</b></div><div>Following on the trial described above, Royal Caribbean has agreed to provide Starlink connectivity on their entire fleet of 63 ships. They will begin outfitting ships immediately and expect to have them all online by the end of the first quarter of next year. </div><div>Other cruise lines connect through geostationary satellites, but Royal Caribbean <a href="https://www.ses.com/case-study/royal-caribbean-international">has been using SES middle Earth orbit satellites</a> on two of their ships. Starlink LEO satellites will provide better performance and offer full global coverage, which the others cannot.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-82155346749778509582022-06-13T21:00:00.029-07:002022-08-07T10:46:30.028-07:00Can SpaceX launch version 2 Starlink satellites this year? <div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo4d1d7XpogQ19rc7llFf6N2t6x0i6lkY8W8UXgMTbynHkRZLCLGDmI0CFIsO1-tY9kE8YZxczDBAQW_OT5exx3bGRNJMngJzUv23ruFNeS36nZ9ee3uOhW2CflcCUO15Lm3Ser28xrcWMp5Wm_5HD7qtV-_DGrsxNp9Yg4NBzGqWrIiVy05o/s3000/StarshipPlacedOnSuperHeavyBooster.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1716" data-original-width="3000" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo4d1d7XpogQ19rc7llFf6N2t6x0i6lkY8W8UXgMTbynHkRZLCLGDmI0CFIsO1-tY9kE8YZxczDBAQW_OT5exx3bGRNJMngJzUv23ruFNeS36nZ9ee3uOhW2CflcCUO15Lm3Ser28xrcWMp5Wm_5HD7qtV-_DGrsxNp9Yg4NBzGqWrIiVy05o/w640-h366/StarshipPlacedOnSuperHeavyBooster.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">A Starship spacecraft being lifted onto a Super Heavy booster</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>The answer to the question in the title depends on the availability of SpaceX’s new Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster rocket, collectively referred to as Starship. Elon Musk says he is highly confident about getting Starship to orbit this year. He also says, “At Space X we specialize in converting things from impossible to late.” </div><div>Starship is critical to Starlink because the version 2 satellites are seven meters long and weigh about 1.25 tons and the current Falcon 9 rockets have neither the cargo volume nor the mass-to-orbit capability to economically launch them. As Musk put it, they "need Starship to launch and fly frequently or Starlink version 2 will be stuck on the ground." </div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtnUSEeqCV_aWDEihCg_lH1T_HXkbkzNnb0-DYCoKYDM_p46V_QB7KY6X52DpuOpP500N0bPt5xXxncjlra2Dmuj8C5U8BVuXYsC0hzCBKWBGdkrnX11zpDI23krXibrZTcD9VCt5SGLCoGudZ4biIqTpBpwqu4F6FCbKfB5sYFGsAPPqliHA/s1475/PezDispencer.png" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1475" data-original-width="1406" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtnUSEeqCV_aWDEihCg_lH1T_HXkbkzNnb0-DYCoKYDM_p46V_QB7KY6X52DpuOpP500N0bPt5xXxncjlra2Dmuj8C5U8BVuXYsC0hzCBKWBGdkrnX11zpDI23krXibrZTcD9VCt5SGLCoGudZ4biIqTpBpwqu4F6FCbKfB5sYFGsAPPqliHA/w191-h200/PezDispencer.png" width="191" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Version 2 satellites will be ejected<br />using a "Pez dispenser" mechanism<br /> modeled after industrial pallet<br />stackers. </td></tr></tbody></table>Musk has said the performance of the version 2 satellites will be nearly an order of magnitude better than that of the current satellites and they will include inter-satellite laser links. He did not elaborate on his order of magnitude estimate and it will be interesting to see how they handle a mixed-satellite constellation, but all the analysts predicting the profitability and capacity of Starlink will have to go back to work. The projected improvement also reminds us of the advantage of short satellite life.</div><div>Today's terminals will work with the version 2 satellites, but performance will be better with a new terminal that is being developed. Perhaps Starlink will allow current terminal owners to trade them in on Version 2 terminals.</div><div>But can SpaceX launch the remaining 9,500 approved satellites or the 30,000 that are awaiting approval in a timely manner? They can if they achieve rapid reuse of Starships. The total world mass-to-orbit to date is 16,000 tons. Musk estimates that a single Starship launching three times a day could put 109,000 tons in orbit in a year.</div><div>Today they are doing about one launch per week and the current average turnaround time for boosters is 21 days -- can they reuse a Starship three times a day? Boosters fly for about six minutes before returning to Earth and SpaceX plans to have them land back on the launch pad ready for refueling, installation of a spaceship, and re-launch. (They will need more spaceships than boosters). </div><div>During an interview/tour of the <span style="background-color: white;">Starbase manufacturing and launch site in Boca Chica, Texas, Musk spent time at </span>a launch pad discussing the 10-second booster landing and capture sequence and the design decisions it entailed with Andrew Krebs, Director, Starship Launch Engineering. It was apparent that various tradeoffs are still being evaluated and change is constant. Musk said there is a good chance they will fail to capture the booster on the upcoming orbital flight. (Recall the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvim4rsNHkQ">"unscheduled disassembles" tape</a> of attempts to safely land Falcon boosters). </div><div>They spent some time on the tour at an assembly bay talking about Starship design and manufacturing. Since they need Starship to launch and fly frequently, they expect to eventually have ten or twelve manufacturing bays and Musk expects to manufacture a new spaceship and booster every month. (He estimates that they will eventually have <a href="https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/1000-starships">1,000 Starships for building a city on Mars</a>).</div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo4LxE9JA1gKoD9-mv7fzHSy-0pixy6JiITApATNY-5Q_tl8YWISllUcGz_S_uujNPz3ads36xIgkZShoLfs2XNBEhPBONxBJOZieasO335DinYzjfevJeLZw_wqJhPXU6xo3HuRY0BP5IOiub8vgQKlxo5PIauefJgLbfLYHH2j5nr6XW0O4/s2048/Raptor2versus1.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="967" data-original-width="2048" height="94" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo4LxE9JA1gKoD9-mv7fzHSy-0pixy6JiITApATNY-5Q_tl8YWISllUcGz_S_uujNPz3ads36xIgkZShoLfs2XNBEhPBONxBJOZieasO335DinYzjfevJeLZw_wqJhPXU6xo3HuRY0BP5IOiub8vgQKlxo5PIauefJgLbfLYHH2j5nr6XW0O4/w200-h94/Raptor2versus1.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Raptor 1 vs Raptor 2 (source SpaceX)</td></tr></tbody></table>The greater mass of the Starship and satellites requires more powerful rocket engines than SpaceX is currently flying so Starship will use thirty-nine Raptor 2 engines -- 33 for the booster and six for the spaceship. The Raptor 2 is more powerful than its predecessor, has a much simpler design, and costs about half as much. They <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/30/22809720/elon-musk-spacex-raptor-engine-crisis-bankruptcy-starship">had trouble manufacturing them</a> at first but now expect to make seven or more per week.</div><div>If all goes well, Musk estimated the variable cost per orbital flight as being a few million, "maybe" as low as one million, dollars. </div><div>In addition to engineering and manufacturing, there are regulatory hurdles. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires an environmental review before they can do the first orbital test launch and they are currently being required to <a href="https://cnb.cx/3mHt67Z">make over seventy-five environmental adjustments</a> to do an orbital launch in Texas. I have no idea how long these adjustments will take, and Musk has considered moving the first orbital flight to Florida. You can see the latest FAA report <a href="https://www.faa.gov/space/stakeholder_engagement/spacex_starship">here</a>.</div><div><div>There are a lot of unknowns and precisely landing and catching a 68-meter long, 9-meter diameter rocket might turn out to be impossible, but SpaceX specializes in converting things from impossible to late.</div><div>---</div><div>This post is based on a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N7L8Xhkzqo">Starship update talk</a> Musk gave at <span style="background-color: white;">Starbase in Boca, his </span>recent <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1533408313894912001">all-hands company presentation</a>, and videos of interviews with Tim Dodd, the "Everyday astronaut," conducted while touring Starbase. Those videos are <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t705r8ICkRw">here</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XP5k3ZzPf_0">here</a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ux6B3bvO0w">here</a>. I've only selected some Starlink-related material from these sources. Check them out to learn a lot more about Elon Musk and rockets.</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div>(Click <a href="http://cis471.blogspot.com/2022/06/ten-spacex-starlink-updates.html">here</a> for a Starlink update).</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 6/17/2022</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>The <a href="https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/faa-requires-spacex-take-over-75-actions-mitigate-environmental-impact-planned">FAA has concluded</a> that continued launches "would not significantly affect the quality of the human environment" and Elon Musk, who has said there would be no more "hops," expects to <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1537672692035375107">attempt a Starship orbital launch in July</a>. Musk thinks they will be able to satisfy the FAA quickly and get on with the orbital launch test. He tweeted “There will probably be several launch countdowns before we pass all the abort triggers, but hopefully the first countdown is this month.”</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Update 8/4/2022</b></div><div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSEKuwh74DZIjRVYAnitAVjKbPA1Bu6JfPrXCo4cunOnGQQvYPJ4J2NZFWNyM4JgsVCaeymZikyzpM4bUeK0DoWi-U040xm-pvShavs5lYGwPuyOsBqJ87Kmr_5Nk0IQsVI6ZpTOEfG78VRc38xJE3sWTAEVohP8TiXZlUotnhfuR8YDnagNw/s949/BoosterReturn.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="656" data-original-width="949" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSEKuwh74DZIjRVYAnitAVjKbPA1Bu6JfPrXCo4cunOnGQQvYPJ4J2NZFWNyM4JgsVCaeymZikyzpM4bUeK0DoWi-U040xm-pvShavs5lYGwPuyOsBqJ87Kmr_5Nk0IQsVI6ZpTOEfG78VRc38xJE3sWTAEVohP8TiXZlUotnhfuR8YDnagNw/s320/BoosterReturn.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Alternative plan -- <a href="https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=301648&x=.">booster returns to launch pad</a></td></tr></tbody></table>The answer to the question in the title is "no," but they are pushing hard and next year is a possibility. <a href="https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starlink-v2-satellites-spotted-starbase/">Version 2 satellites are already at Starbase,</a> and the next Starship launch will try to reach orbit. It would be surprising if the first attempt reached orbit, but Elon Musk is <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/wepbqp/a_successful_orbital_flight_is_probably_between_1/">confident that they can do it within twelve months</a>. Whenever they do it, if all goes well, they will try <a href="https://gizmodo.com/spacex-super-heavy-booster-starship-first-launch-1849179366">to land the booster on the launch pad</a> rather than allowing it to fall into the ocean. </div><div></div><div><a href="https://www.inverse.com/science/starship-orbital-launch-date-may-2022">Musk previously predicted</a> that the first orbital test would be as early as last January, so he is nearly a year behind schedule, but that prediction did not include an attempt at landing on the launch pad. </div><div><br /></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18164409.post-72811345284761980282022-05-29T10:18:00.018-07:002022-08-27T10:25:19.287-07:00Putin's iron firewall is porous<p><i>Russians can see more of the Ukraine war after three months than we saw during the entire Vietnam war.</i></p><p>In 1946 Winston Churchill declared that Russia had lowered an iron curtain across Europe and in 2022 Vladimir Putin created an iron firewall between the Russian Internet and media and the rest of the world but, like its precursor, it is porous. Information wants to be free.</p><p>As of May 26, <a href="https://www.top10vpn.com/research/websites-blocked-in-russia/">Russia had blocked access</a> to 1,548 domains, including 1,142 news sites and 287 digital-resistance sites. The distribution of domain locales is also skewed -- Ukraine 647, the US 523, and Russia 218 are the top three. Given this blocking, it is not surprising that Russians turned to virtual private networks (VPNs).</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrfpedJY2fhN4lmBCXTVk38hI668oUSQB8767keSwcdMmODxxCpb9pzITfWvFBUHalaS1ue7gF5CYWRcER1wkTaHxsPXRz9TDMyRv2fjYuq9J7XLaznExB6NWvAqN41Ddkf6vyUh7wZ6jWfvNWYAe1C-z1PKpZa6wbWQhbXvwwDEV236l91mU/s2291/RussianVPNInterest.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="2291" height="145" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrfpedJY2fhN4lmBCXTVk38hI668oUSQB8767keSwcdMmODxxCpb9pzITfWvFBUHalaS1ue7gF5CYWRcER1wkTaHxsPXRz9TDMyRv2fjYuq9J7XLaznExB6NWvAqN41Ddkf6vyUh7wZ6jWfvNWYAe1C-z1PKpZa6wbWQhbXvwwDEV236l91mU/w640-h145/RussianVPNInterest.png" width="640" /></a></div>As shown here, <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=RU&q=vpn">Russian interest in VPNs</a> as measured by Google searches for the term "VPN" has spiked twice. The baseline level is roughly 5% of the peak period after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The earlier spike -- 26% of the peak -- occurred when <a href=" https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/russia-sanctions-oligarchs/index.html">the US sanctioned Russia</a> for interference in our 2016 election.<div><br /></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgpturkDAS5BHyALa9yNThJc7k_5roJGrik5tst0W1D_ZnVrZOfYURL-rkDPuD-SQteFhLS2GyvVopeoxf4fzd9fG8Ljk6eyfF8PFdiQx02rvqfEYuDRbH9qK4fMkXR5D2hUBgeLl4yfK196jo25lYXtyH91tDKi3uHASUEhnho4xY4wPJFOM/s1351/RussianVPNDownloads.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="809" data-original-width="1351" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgpturkDAS5BHyALa9yNThJc7k_5roJGrik5tst0W1D_ZnVrZOfYURL-rkDPuD-SQteFhLS2GyvVopeoxf4fzd9fG8Ljk6eyfF8PFdiQx02rvqfEYuDRbH9qK4fMkXR5D2hUBgeLl4yfK196jo25lYXtyH91tDKi3uHASUEhnho4xY4wPJFOM/w320-h192/RussianVPNDownloads.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">Daily downloads of the ten most popular VPNs</td></tr></tbody></table><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/06/russia-vpn-putin-censorship-disinformation/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F36c5504%2F62754892956121755a6826f9%2F59730df6ae7e8a1cf4b58b5d%2F9%2F70%2F62754892956121755a6826f9">Daily downloads of the 10 most popular VPNs also spiked</a> in the days after Russia invaded and Russians are using those VPNs. Psiphon, a popular VPN, averaged 867,400 unique daily users during the twenty days beginning May 2 and it has risen slowly, but steadily since the invasion to <a href="https://psix.ca/d/nyi8gE6Zk/regional-overview?orgId=2&from=now-30d&to=now&refresh=10s">929,000 on May 27</a> and the users on May 28 <a href="https://psix.ca/d/Xj5vxTgMz/psiphon-usage-worldmap?orgId=2">made 4,755,000 connections</a>.</div><div><p>Several messaging services are currently unblocked in Russia. The most surprising to me is Telegram which <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1065027/russia-messenger-audience-by-app/">has around 38 million Russian users visiting it at least once a month</a>. If they have the same level of access as I do, they can see Washington Post coverage of the war, President Zelensky's standing-ovation addresses to parliaments and other important audiences, news and graphic photos, and videos of Russian war crimes. and follow the activities of <a href="https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1529792057442717696">The Ukrainian IT Army</a>. </p><p>When Russia celebrated Victory in Europe Day, an audacious hack occurred. Hackers placed fake stories on <a href="http://Lenta.ru">Lenta.ru</a>, a popular Russian news site. The hack was quickly discovered and corrected, but not before the <a href="https://archive.org">Internet Archive</a> backed it up. Below is a Google Translation of a portion of<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220509065825/https://lenta.ru/"> the hacked front page</a>. Note that the hack went beyond the front page -- each front-page headline linked to a complete article.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://archive.org/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="875" data-original-width="2389" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWAhgV6hTAUwIGgJQWFscBGkWVKau3tOAOWV-yUl3OtTllhZDWX1e_FcsRa31Yx5aNOIUdcEC8EE2CBpBcRC7Q53f9hShjcajothcfamJSJHnO9Rj8rfrcT7J7sVhMwgKhI--OwiXESGc_Zyj3-VF_U4y0AK_BoXG_mWYCtR5K4S0DBM5z52c/w640-h234/LentaHack.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Many Ukrainians speak Russian and have friends and family members in Russia. They can use the Internet to tell their friends and families what they have witnessed, and you can do the same <a href="https://1920.in/">using a messaging service</a> created by <a href="https://therecord.media/we-are-unstoppable-how-a-team-of-polish-programmers-built-a-digital-tool-to-evade-russian-censorship/">Squad 103</a> a group of Polish programmers.</p><p>The service, which <a href="https://www.anonymous-france.info/squad-303-100-million-messages-to-russians.html">sent over 100 million messages in less than two months</a>, allows anyone anywhere in the world to message cellphones and email addresses of random Russian individuals and companies. To send a message, you select a messaging application -- SMS, WhatsApp, email, Viber, Telegram, or phone call and write or select an appropriate message.</p><p>(I'm not sure how or if it is possible to distinguish between the activity of Squad 103, the Ukrainian IT Army, and <a href="https://twitter.com/squad3o3/status/1503793357662863364">Anonymous </a>in Ukraine).</p><p>Ukraine is also using <a href="https://www.clearview.ai/">facial recognition</a> to identify Russian soldiers who have been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/15/ukraine-facial-recognition-warfare/">captured, killed, or are caught in the act of looting or other war crimes</a>. They follow up by investigating the war crimes and informing the families of dead soldiers. They defend the latter by saying they offer the soldier's families the possibility of claiming the bodies and fighting Russian propaganda, but they say that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/05/13/ukraine-face-recognition-russian-soldiers-lead-sidner-pkg-vpx.cnn">is effective in only about 20% of the cases</a>.</p><p>I've focused on the Internet, but mass media is also vulnerable. <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2022/05/17/the-putin-show?utm_content=article-link-1&etear=nl_today_1&utm_campaign=r.the-economist-today&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/17/2022&utm_id=1170978">The Economist reports</a> that the state controls the country’s television channels, newspapers, and radio stations, giving "guidance" as to what and how to cover. But, despite Putin's efforts, the truth sometimes appears in mass media.</p><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXzofikxFJekwFu6TjwCbinZbWqbevA-Qc2E3As0S7bby0efHDRDLA1dAFfe9aI_mfs3u8Lb-f4fbNNQPKVSYmrlr9tZmv6ggUG0bGVGtq3SYHf8UUV7Mmhw-Gb8HUCGZEToFWz3BGfmMf7eNVG3V3fIxgM070injsWHhMF7oGMH6ymhmSHf0/s1200/nowarsign2.png" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXzofikxFJekwFu6TjwCbinZbWqbevA-Qc2E3As0S7bby0efHDRDLA1dAFfe9aI_mfs3u8Lb-f4fbNNQPKVSYmrlr9tZmv6ggUG0bGVGtq3SYHf8UUV7Mmhw-Gb8HUCGZEToFWz3BGfmMf7eNVG3V3fIxgM070injsWHhMF7oGMH6ymhmSHf0/w322-h183/nowarsign2.png" width="322" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/anti-war-protester-interrupts-main-russian-news-show-2022-03-14/">sign reads</a> "NO WAR. Stop the war. Don't believe<br />the propaganda. They are lying to you here."</td></tr></tbody></table>The most theatrical example was when Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of Russia's state TV Channel One, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/anti-war-protester-interrupts-main-russian-news-show-2022-03-14/">interrupted a live newscast</a> with a handwritten No-War poster. She was <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/marina-ovsyannikova-could-still-face-jail-anti-russia-outburst-1688331">arrested, but surprisingly, fined $280 and freed</a>. She is now <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61071163">working as a correspondent</a> for the German Die Welt newspaper, reporting from Ukraine and Russia.</div><p>Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok surprised fellow panelists by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/world/europe/russian-state-tv-ukraine-invasion.html">arguing with Olga Skabeyeva</a>, the anchor of Russia's “60 Minutes” talk-show program. He said the war was going poorly and would get worse, arguing that a million patriotic Ukrainian soldiers were ready to fight to defend their nation while Russian army morale was low, Russia is geopolitically isolated, and Ukraine was well supplied by the west. My favorite moment in the argument is when Khodaryonok invoked the "classics" of Marxism-Leninism in refuting Skabeyeva when she challenged the professionalism of the Ukraine fighters. Two days later, on the same program, Khodaryonok <a href="https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/clues-views-russian-colonel-spotlight-ukraine-war-criticism-was-one-few-warn-against-invasion">predicted an ultimate Russian victory</a>.</p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht8nU17d6ywt2_J5DMd4Uuf8bHAMwRS2y506ZqNLa0ZWp5ScDP-B3rXnOte57lOI0A_7MnmLTRSviTXyEGCX7eYTXVA8SMbV9mcMYVDO2VNnsC9WxJ2ZA7zlzbjGCFraEcXJZkIyqCvanOkR2ornEugK0gHiKPKMgsOuT_eFEg1yYirkWGKT0/s1403/RussianTVHack.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1403" data-original-width="1128" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht8nU17d6ywt2_J5DMd4Uuf8bHAMwRS2y506ZqNLa0ZWp5ScDP-B3rXnOte57lOI0A_7MnmLTRSviTXyEGCX7eYTXVA8SMbV9mcMYVDO2VNnsC9WxJ2ZA7zlzbjGCFraEcXJZkIyqCvanOkR2ornEugK0gHiKPKMgsOuT_eFEg1yYirkWGKT0/s320/RussianTVHack.png" width="257" /></a></div>The most innovative mass-media hack occurred on Victory in Europe Day when every program listing in the online TV guide service <a href="https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1523554493144584192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1523554493144584192%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Frussia-victory-day-tv-broadcasts-hacked-anti-war-messages-2022-5">was changed to read</a> (in translation) "On your hands is the blood of thousands of Ukrainians and their hundreds of murdered children. TV and the authorities are lying. No to war".<p></p><p>Writing this, I am reminded of the Vietnam war. Criticism of the war was freely available in print and electronic media in the US and public protests were common. It was nothing like Russia today. But the rate and quality of anti-war information reaching Russia today far exceed those of the Vietnam war. </p><p>We saw iconic photographs -- a terrified nine-year-old girl <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phan_Thi_Kim_Phuc">running screaming and naked</a> after she was napalmed or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nguy%E1%BB%85n_Ng%E1%BB%8Dc_Loan">Major General Nguyễn Ngọc Loan</a> calmly shooting a bound prisoner in the head at point-blank range. Equally disturbing photos from Ukraine are posted to Telegram every day. We eventually learned of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%E1%BB%B9_Lai_massacre">Mỹ Lai massacre</a> in Vietnam, but Russians can see Mariupol and Bucha today. (Do a Google Image search for B<i>ucha atrocity</i> or go to <a href="https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official">President Zelensky's Telegram channel</a> and search for <i>Bucha).</i></p><p><b>Update 7/18/2022</b></p><p>The <a href="https://www.opentech.fund/">Open Technology Fund</a>, a U.S. government-funded nonprofit, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-targets-russia-with-tech-evade-censorship-ukraine-news-2022-06-15/">is supporting three firms</a> that offer their VPN service in Russia for free - nthLink, Psiphon, and Lantern and it's paying off. On May 27 there were 929,000 unique daily users of the Psiphon VPN in Russia, and it has grown steadily. <a href="https://psix.ca/d/nyi8gE6Zk/regional-overview?orgId=2&from=now-30d&to=now&refresh=10s">It was 2.113 million on July 18th</a>.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHSNJqbFf5fUbOZbAy00KGbLioJNnIJguqtSA9bpFhaHylHtyiSGnuQd5OMb7Fzxr3pKDVwBV3fcGrCezLQC9tqbkq7v5UQedsOy-Ue16x46xuJvofv9Z1DiYgz4X6m1FgoBdF7COkesXY0SWDfqnhPi5hDZQaOfpBA2oQm7aklKPzRkLnmMw/s2074/PsyphonDailyUniqueRussia.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1012" data-original-width="2074" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHSNJqbFf5fUbOZbAy00KGbLioJNnIJguqtSA9bpFhaHylHtyiSGnuQd5OMb7Fzxr3pKDVwBV3fcGrCezLQC9tqbkq7v5UQedsOy-Ue16x46xuJvofv9Z1DiYgz4X6m1FgoBdF7COkesXY0SWDfqnhPi5hDZQaOfpBA2oQm7aklKPzRkLnmMw/w640-h312/PsyphonDailyUniqueRussia.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Update 8/27/2022</b></p><p>To celebrate Ukraine’s Independence Day, <a href="https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1562440263330476032">dozens of IP cameras with speaker outputs have been hacked</a> to play patriotic music in Russia as well as occupied Crimea and Donbas. Here are a couple of stills from the video.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg24vp4fFS019-aS-Tx-NGJbAjw_gWkpGGg8CUwm6nzh5Y0V0RQBdMa0rrEYZ2W5kfZwat1BEuqodczM8Pl33TgcRjX9BrbG6yyMePB_vrMHRVa1vtSls5p2Av2Xmi9GMRxwzXtEwjUlXDU_jYen1dhHUnHnwuvkVKRM_mm54Sq22-a_SQze5U/s5742/UkraineHacks.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1881" data-original-width="5742" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg24vp4fFS019-aS-Tx-NGJbAjw_gWkpGGg8CUwm6nzh5Y0V0RQBdMa0rrEYZ2W5kfZwat1BEuqodczM8Pl33TgcRjX9BrbG6yyMePB_vrMHRVa1vtSls5p2Av2Xmi9GMRxwzXtEwjUlXDU_jYen1dhHUnHnwuvkVKRM_mm54Sq22-a_SQze5U/w640-h210/UkraineHacks.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv27cLWgKq6eMGRFmAFO5H21uV9LY8li4NHJj47JNmbd-cV2hUofdma_19i3WYMtn1yqc3sytdIFyWCkU6KTWXf-3O794Wog3S2HaXF_-VjX3FnLh2v2vz4BGaIVRNiGbCiqnhn5t6QVqpNJWK1-uxWGHHgVUfDFfzgVXrrAjsu7KsFUJacXk/s3000/UkraineHack.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a></div><p><br /></p></div>Larry Presshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14903269871983592883noreply@blogger.com0