4G cellular is expected to roll out faster than 3G did

We have discussed three generations of cellular technology, and the fourth is beginning to take shape.



It took nearly six years for 3G cellular to reach 100 million subscribers world wide, but market research firm Pyramid Research estimates that 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology will grow faster. They expect a compound annual growth rate of 404% from 2010 to 2014, with 136 million subscribers by year-end 2014.

Note that Pyramid Research expects LTE to rapidly surpass mobile WiMAX.

At 100 Mbps, LTE will not be limited to cell phone service, but will be used for fixed, portable and mobile Internet access.

If you live in a large city in a developed nation, you might look forward to LTE or Mobile WiMAX by 2011. Others will have to wait. (Some for a very long time).

Is 3G cellular currently available throughout the city you live in? Throughout developing nations? What applications and mobile devices do you foresee for 100 Mbps mobile connectivity? What changes may occur in the cellular companies business and billing models?

Real time location tracking

We discuss location-based applications, and the US Federal Communication Commission has mandated that all cell phones be location-aware for emergency 911 service. Carriers are working toward that goal, and eventually, all cell phones will be equipped with a GPS (global positioning system) receiver or use other technology to record their locations, enabling real time monitoring.



Tim Hibbard illustrates real-time monitoring by carrying a GPS-equipped phone in his car. His location is recorded every 15 seconds, and plotted on Google Maps and Google Earth. His travel routes are also stored on a server so one can see where he has been in the past. For example, on August 12, 2006, Tim traveled around his old college town, Lawrence, Kansas:



Real time GPS could be used to monitor fleets of delivery vehicles or taxis, children, pets, criminals under house arrest, etc. Does this capability raise concern over privacy?

Video of a Google Android cell phone prototype

We have seen that a dumb, open network encourages investment and hardware and software innovation. We have contrasted this with the telephone and cellular networks, where application and hardware innovation are controlled by the network operators. We've also followed Google's efforts to open the cellular network by possibly purchasing spectrum and by developing and distributing Android, an open source mobile phone operating system bundled with Google applications like maps and mail.

Google has released some videos demonstrating prototypes of Android phones. For example, the following video shows a touchscreen phone reminiscent of the Apple iPhone.



(You can find other Android-related videos at the Android Web site linked to above or by searching on Youtube).

The most important feature shown in the video is not clever hardware or software -- Apple already did that with the iPhone -- but the open platform. The video begins and ends with Google co-founder Sergey Brin inviting developers to build Android applications. Based on his Internet experience, he feels that openness will be critical to the success of Android, and has kicked things off with a ten million dollar contest for application developers.

If he is right, third party applications will spur Android sales, and each Android phone sale will spread Google applications -- and ads. Not satisfied with being on your desktop, Google also wants to be in your pocket.

After viewing the prototype video, can you think of applications you would like to have on your next cell phone? Would you be willing to watch targeted advertisements in return for free cell phone service?

Portable devices -- innovation and form factors

In discussing mobile and portable connectivity, we talked about competing device form factors and innovation. We have also discussed new devices which may influence future form factors and user interfaces: the One Laptop Per Child Foundation (OLPC) laptop, the Apple iPhone, and, most recently, Amazon's Kindle.

Each has hardware and user interface innovations that may become standard fare on future portable devices. For example, the Kindle and OLPC laptop have low power displays that are legible in daylight, and the iPhone has an elegant touch screen interface and can be programmed to automatically switch between displaying documents in landscape or portrait mode if it is rotated. The OLPC laptop automatically forms a mesh network with nearby machines; the Kindle is directly connected to Amazon via Sprint's cellular network; and the iPhone can move between WiFi and AT&T's cellular network. The list goes on.

They each deliver different functions. The Kindle is a book reader, period. The iPhone a phone, Internet browser, email client, camera, etc., and it is now open to third party developers. The OLPC laptop is a PC running Linux. It comes preloaded with applications and there are tools for what I hope will become a vibrant developer community. It was conceived of as a computer for school children in developing nations, but in many ways it is more attractive than a "serious" compact laptop like a Sony Vaio for a business traveler.

Each is physically different:

	iPhone	Kindle	OLPC
Height (in)	4.5	7.5	9.5
Width (in)	2.4	5.3	9
Depth (in)	.46	.7	1.25
Weight (oz)	4.8	10.3	51
Pixels/inch	183	167	200
Resolution	420x320	600x800	1200x900
Screen diag (in)	3.5	6	7.5

The iPhone is a smart phone with a bright and large enough screen to browse the Web and read email fairly comfortably. The Kindle is designed for easy reading, and the OLPC laptop's high resolution display may be even better.

Which form factor do you favor? Are you willing to carry around a 3 pound OLPC laptop? Is the iPhone screen large enough for your portable applications? Would you rather carry a Kindle or a paperback book and a magazine when you board a plane?

Portable devices -- the Kindle book reader

Over the years a number of vendors have marketed portable devices for reading books, magazines and other material, but none have caught on. The latest attempt is Amazon's Kindle. Kindle is both hardware -- the portable reader -- and a service. The service includes an online store with 90,000 books, magazine and blog subscription and free downloading using Sprint's cellular network. It also includes a backup copy of everything you buy or transfer to your Kindle in case it is lost or damaged. That is the good news.

The bad news is that the Kindle service is a "walled garden." It is like having a cell phone that can only call one number -- the Amazon book store. Furthermore, the cost of downloading and backup must be covered, so a subscription to a blog which is free on the Internet might cost $1 per month, and you must pay to put your own Word files or other documents on your Kindle. The charges cover the backup and downloading service.

Would you be willing to have a specialized book reader or would insist upon a portable device capable of other functions like listening to music, Web browsing and email? Would you want a portable device that was tied to a single vendor, Amazon?

An early WiMAX deployment

We have talked about mobile and portable connectivity. The two choices today in the US are WiFi hotspots and third generation cellular service, but WiMAX service is just beginning and may become competitive.

Clearwire just led off with early WiMAX deployment in their 44 local markets. With their PC card in a laptop, one will have portable (not mobile) connectivity for $59.99 a month for speeds of up to 1.5 megabits per second down and 256 kilobits up. (Mobile WiMAX will be available when the standard is soldified).

How do those speeds compare to what you have at home today? Who might be interested in this service?

Mobile applications

We all use the Internet from our desktops, but few of us access the Net when we are on the move. Many people expect mobile access to boom. Cellular phone, search, and hardware companies are all developing mobile access products.

Search firms Yahoo, Google and Microsoft have focused on the cell phone. You can try their efforts at http://m.yahoo.com/, google.com/m, and Windows live search.

Text entry is difficult on a cell phone keyboard, so Google and Microsoft are working with voice-based search. You can try them at 800-GOOG411 and 800-555-TELL.

Microsoft, Intel, Apple, phone manufacturers and others are also experimenting with larger form factors than the cell phone. A good example is Intel's Mobile Internet Device. Its features include a four or six inch touch-screen display, stripped-down version of Linux, fast restart from suspended mode, retractable keyboard, GPS radio, and a camera.