Estimating Guowang Internet service satellite mass with ChatGPT

After searching for the mass of China's Guowang Internet-service satellites and finding nothing, I estimated it using ChatGPT. Since I knew the number of satellites (10) and the rocket used (Long March 5B) in two launches, the mass of a single satellite could be estimated if I knew the carrying capacity of the rocket.

I asked ChatGPT this question five times: How much mass could a Long March 5B rocket with a Yuanzheng-2 (YZ-2) upper stage carry to 1,100 kilometers with an inclination of 86.5 degrees? 

As shown in this summary, the average capacity is 16.6 tonnes or 16,600 kg. The full answers can be found here.

I've shown the final answers here, but ChatGPT explains the seven or so intermediate steps it took to compute the final answer. Like the final results, they are different in each of the queries. It would be interesting if they could be recorded.

These five results are all different and seem to be independent of each other. ChatGPT does not remember prior submission of the same question

I am not a rocket scientist and can only average the five results in estimating the satellite masses. I'd like to know what experts think of the results and the intermediate steps taken in deriving them.

OneWeb can’t come close to replacing Starlink in Ukraine, but it could complement it.

Elon Musk assured us that he would not stop the Starlink service in Ukraine. But, given his feud with Trump, his criticism of President Zelensky, and his rash actions with DOGE, can he be trusted? (His termination of USAID is estimated to have resulted in 340,000 deaths so far.)

When asked about Musk’s influence, Josef Aschbacher, director general of the European Space Agency, said he declined to comment on “the internal politics of the United States and who should influence these decisions” but added “If changes happen and if our US partners and friends are changing their plans, of course we will be ready for plan B.”

The US has decided to reduce aid to Ukraine, and Plan B is being considered. Eutelsat is in talks with the EU about the possibility of replacing Starlink in Ukraine

Eutelsat OneWeb is currently the only low-earth orbit (LEO) alternative to Starlink. Germany has paid for “fewer than 1,000” OneWeb terminals in Ukraine, but Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke says the company aims to increase this to between 5,000 and 10,000 "relatively fast."

That is admirable, but I don’t see how OneWeb could come close to replacing Starlink in Ukraine.

For a start, there are limitations of the OneWeb satellites and terminals:

•  Oleg Kutkov, a leading Ukrainian Starlink expert, estimates that there are around 130,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine.
• SpaceX has over 7,500 LEO satellites compared to OneWeb’s 630. (Eutelsat also has 35 geostationary (GEO) satellites).
• Kyivstar, the largest mobile operator in Ukraine, plansdirect-to-device Starlink connectivity later this year.
•  Kyivstar has determined that  OneWeb currently lacks sufficient capacity to move forward on their partnership MOU at this time.
• OneWeb satellites orbit at around 1,200 km, while Starlink satellites are between 336 and 570 km, which gives them a latency advantage for real-time battlefield applications.
• OneWeb’s fixed beams enable it to provide guaranteed service levels in specific locations, but Starlink’s dynamic-beam architecture makes better use of available capacity in densely populated areas and in tracking mobile users.
• OneWeb’s fixed terminals are more expensive than Starlink’s, and the portable terminals are heavier and more expensive.
• There are ten different Starlink terminal models/revisions – they have had time to iterate designs and mature and refine manufacturing processes for both terminals and satellites.
• Similarly, Starlink satellite designs have evolved – throughput has increased, intersatellite links were introduced, etc.

More importantly, Starlink is embedded in Ukraine. Systems, supply chains, distribution channels, organizations, and applications have been developed around it, and users, engineers, repair people, etc., have been trained. The first Starlink terminals arrived in Ukraine over three years ago. A week later, they were in the field and providing nationwide connectivity through ground stations in three nearby countries, and within a month, there were 5,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine. Starlink has played an unprecedented, critical role in the management of the war, international relations, and on the battlefield field and it has enabled significant civilian tech mobilization.

One more factor – Starlink is financially stronger than Eutelsat. Eutelsat stock was €28.06 per share in April 2015. When Trump berated Zelensky at the White House on February 28, 2025, it was down to €1.20. As a result of that meeting, it jumped to €7.84 on March 3, but it’s now back down to €2.31.

While OneWeb cannot replace Starlink in Ukraine, it can complement it. For example, OneWeb could provide connectivity and resilient backup for fixed locations like government offices and hospitals, and since Eutelsat operates both GEO and  LEO satellites, latency-tolerant applications like streaming video could be offloaded onto their GEO satellites.

Remembering Dave Taht

  

“Elon, let me inside this thing, and I can fix it for you” (Image from this podcast)

In my own mind, I like to think of him as the person who added the most effective capacity to the Internet, Karl Auerbach

Dave Taht died on April 1st. I met him only recently, and never in person, but his passing saddens me. His technical work and evangelism have improved the Internet, and I will give some examples of his contributions to the Internet community and users, but I am sad because he was a good person — idealistic, unselfish, open, and funny. I'll miss him. First, his contributions, then his values.

Contributions

Taht was best known for his work on buffer bloat and its impact on Internet performance. As packets hop across the Internet, they are queued in buffers while waiting to be forwarded.  Long queues, “buffer bloat,” means increased latency, transit time between a source and its destination, and jitter, transit time variance.

Internet service providers typically advertise and price based on service speed, but latency is critical to interactive applications like gaming, teleconferencing, and Web surfing. (For a deep dive on buffer bloat, see this post by Jim Gettys, who coined the term buffer bloat.)

With Jim Gettys, Taht co-founded the buffer bloat Project, where he implemented, tested, and integrated active queue management (AQM) algorithms CoDel, FQ-CoDel, and CAKE, and led the CeroWRT (Customer Edge Router Wireless Router) project that focused on home, office, and other edge networks.

Gettys shared Taht's focus on the edge, writing “Surprising to most, AQM is essential for broad band service, home routers, and even operating systems: it isn't just for big Internet routers” in 2011 and more recently he said “Buffer bloat can happen anywhere in a network, though by far the most common locations are before/after the WiFi hop in the router, and then the hop from the home router back to the ISP”

Given his interests in space and edge networks, Starlink was a natural focus for Taht, and he talked about Starlink in this 8-minute podcast excerpt. Taht had known Elon Musk since he had worked on an ill-fated satellite that was on a Falcon 1 rocket when it blew up, so he emailed Musk in 2013 and offered to help, but Musk was not interested. The plan for Starlink was announced in January 2015, and when it eventually entered beta in 2020, Taht learned of the latency problem and emailed Vint Cerf, who arranged a meeting with Starlink engineers on Taht’s boat, but he did no work for them.

In January 2024, Elon Musk announced that “the biggest single goal for Starlink from a technical standpoint is to get the mean latency below 20 ms." By March, they were delivering results and listing latency as well as upload and download speed on their availability map. Unfortunately, Musk and his engineers did not listen to Taht in 2013 and 2020.

 

Starlink latency improvement after January 2024 (Source)

Values

The National Science Foundation backbone network (NSFNET) was created in 1986 to serve research and education in the US. The network grew rapidly, and in 1988, access was expanded to include international research and education organizations. By 1996, 28 nations were connected. (Fun fact – Cuba’s first link was to NSFNET.)

Taht was 30 years old when NSFNET was decommissioned and the Internet transitioned to fully commercial operation, but his values were established by then. With his skill and experience, he could have found lucrative work or built a large company, but he was committed to open-source software and universal connectivity.

Everything he wrote was open-source, including his songs. He is surely the only composer/musician to write geeky songs about the Internet, for example, this little ditty about the GNU Public License, Richard Stallman, Linus Torvalds, and Eric Raymond. He also spent years in Nicaragua, trying to find ways to bring the Internet (and power, lighting, food, medicine, and books) there as an outgrowth of Nicholas Negroponte’s One Laptop Per Child project.

He understood J. C. R. Licklider’s conception of the Internet as a means of creating communities of common interest rather than common location. He created a Starlink list, which is where I met him. The caliber of conversation on the list is an implicit tribute to Taht.

The photo of Taht at the top of this post was taken from the podcast in which he offered to fix the Starlink router, which was in beta at the time, for free (though he wouldn’t mind a thank-you tweet, a new motor for his boat, or even a Christmas card). The photo illustrates his values. He could have lived in a mansion, but he chose to live on a boat with a guitar nearby. To know Dave Taht better, watch the entire video.

Appendix

I met Dave recently and only knew him online, so I asked Perpleity, Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT to list memorials. They returned several broken links, and Claude and Deepspeak were not current. I found these:

Author: Doc Searls
Title: Remembering Dave Taht
Link

Author: Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
Title: Dave Taht, Who Sped Up Networks More Than You’ll Ever Know, Has Died
link

Author: Tom Stricx
Title: Honoring Dave Täht and his contributions to a better Internet (video calls included)
Link
 
Authors: Robert, Herbert, and Frank LibreQoS
Title: In loving memory of Dave Taht
Link
 
Author: Hacker News Community
Title: Thread collecting memories, technical anecdotes, and condolences from the networking and open source community
Link
 
Author: Toke Høiland-Jørgensen
Title: Remembering Dave Taht, Link
Link

Starlink is critical in support of Ukraine, and it will continue

Ukrainian drone boat with two Starlink terminals (source Oleg Kutkov)

At 4:04 AM on February 26 Mykhailo Fedorov, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, requested Starlink service from Elon Musk, and at 2:45 PM on the 26th, Elon Musk tweeted "Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route." On February 28 at 12:29 PM Fedorov posted a photo of a truckload of terminals. (Kyiv is 10 hours ahead of California) and an engineer, Oleg Kutkov, posted the first tweet from Ukraine, showing a download speed of 136.76 Mb/s and an upload speed of 23.93 Mb/s.  (Kutkov was among the "people embodying the spirit of Ukraine," chosen by Time Magazine as Person of the Year for 2022).

On March 19^th there were 5,000 terminals in Ukraine and it was clear that Starlink would play an unprecedented, critical role in the war. President Zelenskyy was using social media and teleconferencing in his roles as Commander in Chief of the armed forces, a global diplomat, and a leader of the Ukrainian people. Starlink was being used to compensate for Russian destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, by civilians and on the battlefield, often in conjunction with drones. Starlink has also enabled important civilian volunteer contributions to the war effort, reminiscent of the working women and the victory gardens during World War 2  in the US.

Starlink’s value is now well established. Kutkov estimates that there are around 170,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine, which is constantly increasing. For example:

• The armed forces have around 100,000 terminals provided by various ministries.
• It is common for soldiers to purchase their own terminals. (One retailer has sold almost 2,000 terminals to soldiers so far this year).
• There are thousands of terminals on drone aircraft and boats built by local companies. (One local vendor bought 10,000 terminals for drones).
•  Charity foundations like Serhiy Prytula contribute terminals. (The retail price of a roaming terminal in Ukraine is $613).
• Private donors (including Kutkov) contribute drones and terminals. 
• One service center reported that 90% of the military terminals coming for repairs are privately owned.

Musk’s Grok AI chatbot estimates Starlink’s revenue for Ukraine support is “likely in the ballpark of $150-250 million per year as of now”, a relatively unimportant amount, and about $50 million of that is paid by Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, has expressed a willingness to seek alternatives to Starlink if necessary and was invaded by Hitler 1939.

Because of recent statements and actions by Donald Trump and Elon Musk, Ukraine and its allies became concerned that Starlink service might possibly be cut off.  

As enumerated in this timeline, Trump has upended the US approach to Ukraine and treated Moscow more as an ally since he became President, culminating in his recent suspension of military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after he and Vice President Vance berated Zelenskyy in a televised meeting, overstating the amount of US support, falsely claiming that Ukraine had not thanked the US for it’s support and insisting on a “deal” with no security guarantee. 

(Recall that in September 1938, English, French, and Italian leaders signed the Munich Agreement, giving Hitler control of Czechoslovakia in exchange for his promise not to take more land in Europe, and Ukrainians are dying in this war).

Elon Musk has also urged Ukraine to accept peace without a security guarantee to stop the bloodshed. His statement that without Starlink the entire front line would collapse caused concern that he might cut Starlink service off.

Thankfully, Musk has since clarified his position, stating:

"To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals. Without Starlink, the Ukrainian lines would collapse, as the Russians can jam all other communications! We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining chip."

Taking Musk at his word, Starlink service will remain available.

Guowang finally launches ten large production satellites

The first ten Guowang production satellites (source)

In April 2020, The Chinese State Council's executive meeting declared information technology, including satellite Internet,  an important part of the “new technology” and in October, China applied for Guowang, a  12,992-satellite Internet service constellation. Subsequently, a few Guowang test satellites were launched and two other large Chinese constellations were announced, and one, Thousand Sails,  already has 54 satellites in orbit. (Thousand Sails launches have had problems with debris and orbit raising, which attests to the immaturity of the Chinese space industry). Finally, Guowang has launched its first production satellites.

As shown above, ten satellites were launched into orbits about 1,100 kilometers above the Earth, with an inclination of 86.5 degrees. The satellites were launched on a Long March 5B rocket which can carry 23,000 Kg to low-Earth orbit (LEO) and they were stacked in a manner that optimized “the use of vertical and radial space within the payload fairing.” If the rocket was fully loaded, they would be quite large – over 2,000 kg each.

For comparison, Starlink’s current V2-mini satellites are 750-800 kg, and the V3 satellites, which will not begin launching until SpaceX's Starship rockets are in service, are expected to be around 1,900 kg.

Thousand Sail's satellites are smaller than either. They recently launched 18 satellites using a Long March 6A rocket which can carry 4,000 kg to sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). I could not find a mass to LEO for the Long March 6A so I asked four AI services to estimate what a rocket capable of launching 4,000 kg to SSO would be able to launch to LEO. The average estimate was 5,700 kg total or only 317 kg per satellite.

Assuming capability is a function of mass, Guowang satellites will be significantly more powerful than Thousand Sails or Starlink's current satellites. I don't know what those functional differences will be – greater capacity, faster data rates, more power, improved inter-satellite capability, connectivity to 6G devices, etc. For speculation on the features of Starlink's forthcoming V3 satellites see slide 62 in this presentation and this article).

The Guowang constellation will also orbit at a relatively high altitude. The first ten are at 1,100 km and over half the planned constellation will be roughly the same altitude.  Similarly, Thousand Sails' initial 1.296 satellites are orbiting at 1,160 km. While Starlink initially applied to have some 1,100 km satellites, they later lowered their planned orbits. Guowang's relatively high altitude will help compensate for a lack of ground stations.

In an earlier post, I asked whether Guowang could manufacture and launch satellites fast enough to meet Its ITU commitment of launching 10% of the constellation within two years after the bring-into-use (BIU) date 50% by year 5 and all by year 7. Now that production satellites are in orbit and working, I assume the BIU clock has started or will start soon. Given the mass and orbit altitudes of the satellites and Chinese satellite manufacturing and launch capability, they will have a difficult time meeting the ITU deadlines despite new rockets, but in our politically divided world, some nations may ignore those deadlines or Guowang might simply reapply. (It’s even conceivable that Starlink could launch some Guowang satellites since Elon Musk has to please the Chinese government to protect Tesla’s sales and manufacturing in China).

Guowang is late, but the government is committed and the satellites may be comparable to Starlink's V3 satellites. If they can launch the constellation, there will still be a market in serving BRICS and other politically-allied or neutral nations as well as sensitive government and military organizations that are increasingly concerned with Elon Musk’s political ties and mercurial nature. The large mass of their satellites may also result in features that increase their appeal in some applications like backhaul from remote locations that are not reached by fiber. It will be interesting to see what happens when Guowang ITU deadlines expire.

Update 3/8/2025

GuoWang has launched another batch of satellites on a Long March 8A rocket. Space Force cataloged nine objects in orbit, suggesting eight payloads in 862 by 870-kilometer orbits inclined by 50.0 degrees. While I could not find any definitive data online, Grok estimates that a Long March 8A could likely launch 7,200 kg to that orbit, which would imply about 800 kg per satellite, around the mass of the current V2 Starlink satellites and more than double the mass of the Thousand Sails satellites.

Update 5/5/2025

Guowang has launched another batch of satellites on a high-capacity Long March 5B rocket, implying that these are the larger GW2 satellites.

Guowang Launches
Date	Rocket	Satellites
12/16/2024	LM 5B	10
2/11/2025	LM 8A	9?
4/28/2025	LM 5B	10?

Update 6/18/2925

Five more Guowang satellites were launched on a Long March 6, with a capacity to orbit of 8,500 kg, implying a very large mass or a lot of empty space.

Guowang launches

Update 7/14/2025

In a speech on June 6, Yuan Jungan, chief designer of internet satellites, said more than 400 Guowang satellites will be deployed to form the network by 2027, and  "China plans to deploy more than  20,000  satellites, expand more industry-enabled application scenarios, and actively explore the international cooperation market" by 2035. 

Sources vary, but there are at least 10 full BRICS members and 10 BRICS Partner Countries, and others have attended international meetings. China is pursuing international cooperation while the US seeks to cut it.

H/T Twitter 

@insomniacai163

Update 8/3/2025

China launched two more batches of Guowang satellites in three days, bringing the total number in orbit to 48. The cadence has sped up, and the goal of 400 satellites by 2027 appears to be feasible. 

Note that the Long March 5B had a Yuanzheng-2 orbit-transfer stage enabling it to carry satellites to precise orbits. (The mass of the Yuanzheng-2 rocket and its fuel would have reduced the overall carrying capacity somewhat.)

ChatGPT reports that the orbit altitudes range from 1,067 to 1,149 km. If correct, that would put them in the high-altitude GW-2 sub-constellation even though their masses, and therefore capabilities, vary considerably.

Update 8/13/2025

China launched yet another batch of satellites on a Long March 5B rocket with a Yuanzheng-2 upper stage, indicating that these are probably large satellites, although as far as I know, no details have been released.

I have revised my estimated mass per satellite shown above based on ChatGPT queries and taking the upper stage mass and fuel into account. My estimate is now 16,600 kg, the average of five ChatGPT queries. Regardless, they are definitely larger than the satellites launched on less powerful rockets and must have more capacity or other features and function as a "backbone" in some sense.

Starlink connectivity for rural communities

WELCOME community WiFi service is now available in Kenya and it might be a game changer like public access telecenters and WiFi hotspots were in the past.

Starlink launched maritime service in July 2022, and by January 2023 Elcome International LLC, a maritime technology solution provider since 1970, had installed multi-antenna Starlink Maritime arrays on two super yachts with more than 100 passengers and crew. Elcome launched its Starlink maritime service in May 2024 and now has over 3,000 terminals under management,

In May, I had a positive experience using Starlink on a cruise ship off the Northwest coast of Africa. The ship had 264 passengers and a crew of 120. We were a small, floating community. Elcomm is now transferring its experience with maritime communities to communities on land. 

Elcome Managing Director Jimmy Grewal set a goal of "creating a Wi-Fi hotspot service that I would be happy to use daily, and be proud to show my friends" and is “very passionate” about their WELCOME Community WiFi service for rural areas. WELCOME in Kenya is offered as Karibu Connect. (Karibu means welcome in Swahili).

WELCOME community gateway (source)

The solar-powered gateway shown here provides over 400 Mbps to roughly a square kilometer. They offer two configurations:

WELCOME PRO

• Up to 50 users
• Starlink Enterprise Terminal
• 8-Port Switch
• Two Wi-Fi Access Points
• Ksh,106,999 ($826.31)

WELCOME MAX

• More than 50 users
• Starlink Flat High-Performance Terminal
• 8-Port Switch
• Four Wi-Fi Access Points
• Ksh.377,000 377,000 ($2,911.42)

They offer several data plans and say some customers will qualify for free hardware. They do not specify the requirements for free hardware, but it may be a function of the data plan or other factors like whether or not it is a non-profit organization. This is the pricing model pioneered by Gillette—give them the razors and sell them the blades and whatever the price of the "razors" is, the prices of the "blades" will decline as competition comes online and constellation capacities increase

Starlink has a huge first-mover advantage over its would-be LEO ISP competitors, but OneWeb offers service-level agreements (SLAs) that will be attractive for organizations like schools, clinics, government offices, and businesses as well as public access telecenters and WiFi hotspots.  It has been reported that Starlink plans to offer SLAs to maritime customers and perhaps other markets in early 2025. This makes sense since there is relatively little contention for capacity at sea. The same is true for rural areas in developing nations, so they may also offer SLAs in Kenya and elsewhere. (Note that Intelsat has strengthened its maritime partnership with OneWeb).

OneWeb may also have a political advantage in India due to the influence of the Bharti family and concern over Elon Musk's political activity Political concerns may deter reliance on Starlink in other nations as well. Might WELCOME offer a OneWeb-based terminal or even a Chinese Qianfan-based terminal one day?

The first cabina de Internet in Lima Perú.

Public-access telecenters and later WiFi hotspots played a significant role in the early diffusion of the Internet in developing nations. The first telecenters I knew of were the public-access Internet "cabins" established by Jose Soriano of the Scientific Network of Peru, starting in 1994, and Andy Carvin documented many other early telecenters.

By 2002, there were 6,446 telecenters in Latin America and commitments for another 4,187 and they still play a role. For example, ChatGPT says Cuba has over 600 public "navigation" rooms and 2,000 public WiFi hotspots as of 2024. (I could not access the websites of Cuba’s government-run ISP or the National Statistics Office to verify that claim). 

Starlink and other LEO satellite Internet service providers may bring connectivity to many rural communities that can not be reached economically with terrestrial infrastructure.

Update 12/14/2024

It is too soon to tell whether Welcome community wifi will catch on at today's Starlink speed and price, but we can be sure that price-performance will improve in the future. SpaceX recently requested a modification of the Starlink V2 constellation lowering orbits and elevation angles slightly and claiming they would provide "gigabit speeds," Elon Musk predicted a 10X speed increase and SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell predicts 2 Gbps speed. Speeds will vary depending on your location, but the next-generation satellites will offer a substantial improvement, making the case for satellite vs terrestrial backhaul from rural locations stronger.

Update 1/16/2025

Karibu Connect reports that the Kenyan Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) has funded connectivity for four rural TVET schools to the Internet. They report that enrollment rates increased by over 70% at some institutions demonstrating how access to technology has sparked renewed interest in education. For example, Nachu TVC launched the Jitume Program, a youth-focused initiative offering access to digital services, skills, and job creation opportunities through technology.

Karibu Connect is just getting underway and is looking for support from nonprofits, government organizations, or philanthropists, so it is too soon to draw conclusions about its impact on rural education, but it certainly bears watching.

Affordable Starlink Prices Coming to Low and Middle-Income Countries

SpaceX first departed from its uniform Starlink pricing policy when it offered a reduced price for throttled service in France two years ago. Since then, many new, higher-capacity satellites have been launched, enabling SpaceX to reduce prices in low and middle-income countries, like Kenya.

Starlink (≥ 100 Mbps) satellite Internet growth (source)

Kenya had 405 geostationary satellite internet subscribers when Starlink became available in July 2023. By March 2024 there were 4,808 satellite Internet users, according to data from Kenya’s Communications Authority.  

The price and offering have changed. Initially, the hardware, including shipping and handling, was KES92,100 ($715) and the monthly service was KES6,500 ($50). 

Today, the service price is the same for uncapped access today, but the hardware cost is down to KES45,500 ($353) and they offer a hardware rental plan for KES1,950 ($15)/month. 

Starlink's unlimited data plan will appeal to affluent consumers and organizations like schools and businesses. It might also appeal to people who live close enough to each other to share a single account although that must be a violation of Starlink's contract.

Starlink also has a new affordable plan with 50GB of data for KES1,300 ($10) plus KES20/GB ($0.16) for overage data. The affordable plan is a strong competitor for Airtel and Safaricom, which combined have 95.2 % of the Kenyan mobile broadband market and offer fixed connectivity in limited areas. (I wonder how much "mobile" data is consumed by users on computers connected to mobile hotspots at home).

Starlink has a speed advantage over Airtel and Safaricom and serves areas with low population density they do not reach. (As of this writing, Starlink is at full capacity in Nairobi). Despite reduced prices, Starlink's equipment cost is too high for many Kenyans, hence the hardware rental plan. 

Poa! Internet is another competitor. Poa! offers unlimited 5 Mb/s fixed connectivity for only KES1,575 ($12) /month with an installation fee of KES2,500 ($19.40). At 5 Mb/s it is slower than the others, but fast enough for most Internet applications. For example, Netflix says it is sufficient to stream 1080p HD video. (For many applications, latency is more important than speed).

Poa! Internet customers average about 200 GB/month but unlimited Starlink customers consume much more than that since they can support multiple users online simultaneously. (I have streamed four Netflix videos simultaneously on a ship off the coast of North Africa). A Starlink user in Kenya told me he had been using "multiple terabytes a month" and market tests at a large Kenyan ISP estimated the Starlink consumption would be over 2 TB/month.

Steve Song has pointed out ways Starlink contributes to inequality in Africa. Still, it is also bringing the  Internet to users and organizations that did not have access previously and putting pressure on legacy ISPs to compete. (Starlink is partially responsible for recent expansion by existing companies like Airtel and Safaricom). 

Starlink has demonstrated a willingness to adapt in Kenya as they did in France two years ago and we can look forward to ongoing improvement as new, higher capacity satellites are launched on improved rockets and the African ground infrastructure improves. We can also look forward to competition from other satellite ISPs like Amazon and Quianfan. It will be interesting to see the Kenyan Internet in ten years.

Update 9/16/2024

Suspected Kenyan Starlink gateways (source)

I've been told that Starlink latency from Nairobi to a Netflix node in Lagos is about 50ms because there is a gateway in Nigeria, but latency to a Kenyan banking site is 400ms or more because it requires transit over Africa's terrestrial infrastructure. 

Since Starlink's only African gateway is in Nigeria, my guess is that latency to Europe or even the US is somewhere between those two because undersea cables land in Nigeria.

A gateway in Nairobi would improve latency in Kenya and the East in general.

Update 10/23/2024

In the three months between March and June, the number of Starlink subscriptions in Kenya grew from 4,808 to 8,324 (73%). While the number of subscribers is still small, there is certainly a market for LEO satellite connectivity in Kenya. 

Starlink is growing rapidly but only accounts for only .5% of the market; but as Peter Ndegwa, CEO of Kenya's largest phone company has said “From a satellite perspective, we have to partner with Starlink or other satellite providers to ensure that technology plays right through” and they are in talks with Starlink and other satellite providers on potential future partnerships, 

Russian Internet pioneer sentenced to two years in prison

Relcom machine room. Kremvax, the micro-VAX shown here, linked Relcom to Finland and the outside world and the modems communicated within
The Soviet Union.

Last month, Russian Internet pioneer Alexey Soldatov was sentenced to two years in a labor colony on charges of “abuse of power.”

Soldatov, the co-founder of Russia's first  Internet service provider, Relcom, was convicted for his role as a co-founder and director of the Russian Institute for Development of Public Networks (RIPN). RIPN was founded in 1992 to support research and education networking. One of its functions was the “registration of IP numbers for the customers from the blocks delegated RIPN by the Europe coordination body RIPE".

As Russia’s first local Internet registry (LIR), RIPN was allocated a block of IP addresses to distribute to customers for a fee. By early 2019, RIPN had assigned about 490,000 IPv4 addresses to more than 700 clients, mostly scientific and educational organizations.

In December 2018, the RIPN board decided to dissolve the organization since it was no longer commercially sustainable and its role as an operator of scientific and educational networks was no longer necessary. In April 2019, RIPN informed its clients that it was terminating its work as an LIR and re-registering their IP addresses in the RIPE database under a Czech company called Reliable Communications, which Alexey Soldatov and Alexey Shkittin owned. Shkittin was also a director of RIPN at the time. When the government learned of the dissolution plan, they stopped it and RIPN reclaimed the IP addresses. (Today there are over 20,000 RIPE LIRs in 76 countries).

Defenders of the aborted transfer say the addresses had to go somewhere if RIPN was being dissolved and they were neither property nor worth the 500 million rubles ($8.1 million) as charged. They also point out that the charges were initiated by Andrey Lipov, a prominent figure in the Russian Presidential Administration and the head of Roskomnadzor. the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology, and Mass Media.

Still, the transfer to a Czech company owned by Soldatov and Shkittin when they were RIPN directors looks fishy. Was this a case of embezzlement or political retribution by a government that wants to surveil and censor the Internet?

I don't know the facts in this case, Russian law, or, with certainty, what motivated Soldatov to attempt to transfer those IP addresses, but I do know something about the character of the people involved. 

I have first-hand knowledge of Alexey Soldatov. Relcom was launched on August 1, 1990, in the Kurchatov Institute of Atomic Research in collaboration with the DEMOS cooperative. (Soldatov is a physicist). DEMOS was a UNIX-like operating system derived from BSD Unix which Relcom developed and distributed to research and education organizations.

They used UUCP links to communicate with their Russian customers and soon connected to Europe (EUnet) through Tampere University of Technology in Finland. The ability to make regular, long international calls needed for data transfer was unheard of at that time in Russia -- The Kurchatov Institute was an important research center.

My colleague Juri Gornostaev and I used that UUCP link to organize the First East-West International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction in Moscow. After the conference, I stayed in Moscow to meet and hang out with the Relcom staff. They were friendly, smart, idealistic, and anti-communist. They were members of the international Internet community as imagined by visionaries like Vannevar Bush and J. C. R. Licklider.

Relcom sent Boris Yeltsin's speech on a tank to The West.

A few days after I returned home, a group of Russian officials attempted a coup against the relatively progressive Gorbachev government. Mass media were shut down or broadcast old movies and operas, but Relcom stayed online, relaying news within Russia and between Russia and the rest of the world. As Relcom staff member Polina Anatova said at the time, "Thank Heaven, these cretins don't consider us mass media!"

I also know the character of Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. Russia commits daily war crimes in Ukraine and political opponents who are not imprisoned tend to fall from the windows of tall buildings. Furthermore, Freedom House assessed Internet freedom in 70 nations last year and the only nations judged to have less Internet freedom than Russia were China, Myanmar, Iran, and Cuba. 

Given the uncertainties mentioned above, the government's track record, Soldatov's contributions to society, and the fact that the IP address transfer never took place, he has been under house arrest awaiting trial and is in ill health, this prison sentence is politically motivated and morally unjustified.

For more on Relcom's early days and the role it played at the time of the Soviet coup attempt, see:

• Relom, an appropriate technology network
• Before the Twitter revolution, there was the Usenet revolution
• Wide Area Collaboration
• History is written and revised by the winners -- can the Internet Archive change that?
• Soviet Coup Archive, including Usenet traffic
• The Internet as an information resource

Update 8/29/2024

MK reported that Alexey Soldatov spent his first night in pretrial detention center No. 4 in terrible conditions -- sleeping on the floor without a mattress in a cell for 40 people. The article also points out that he was sentenced to two years in prison even though the prosecutor’s office requested a more lenient sentence.

The Board of the Internet Society (ISOC) of Bulgaria has called upon Russia to release Soldatov. They cite his critical medical condition. In recent years he has had two cancer-related surgeries and has chronic cardiovascular and other health-related issues. A news article published on August 26 reported that he has a fever, problems breathing and his left lung is practically not working.

ISOC Bulgaria points out that suspended sentences are not unusual for people who have not committed crimes before and calls for Soldatov's immediate release while his conviction is being appealed. Other organizations should do the same. 

Is the "father or the Russian Internet" a criminal?

Post revised -- see https://circleid.com/posts/20240821-russian-internet-pioneer-sentenced-to-two-years-in-prison.

Geely Geespace update -- global centimeter-level positioning services

Potential Geesat applications (source)

Chinese automobile conglomerate Geely has made significant strides since I last wrote about their Geesat LEO constellation for mobile vehicle connectivity, They launched the first nine satellites in June 2022 and a second batch of eleven satellites in February 2024. The mass of the first nine satellites was 100 kg and the mass of the second eleven was 130 kg so they are not identical.

Today, they have twenty satellites orbiting at 600 km with a 50-degree inclination, and the recently launched eleven are equipped with "artificial intelligence" remote sensing capabilities, allowing them to capture clear high-resolution images with a resolution ranging from 3.2 ft to 16.4 ft. These satellites can provide data and imagery for multiple applications, including surveillance, urban planning, and infrastructure management. 

These satellites are the first of a 72-satellite first-phase constellation. The company plans to provide “global real-time data communication services” once the 72-satellite first-phase constellation is completed next year and “global centimeter-level positioning services” when the 168 second-phase satellites are in orbit at an unspecified time.

RTK-PPP (source)

Centimeter-level positioning would be impossible using only GPS (or BeiDou) satellites that orbit at around 20,000 kilometers, but Geely is planning to use RTK-PPP (Real-Time Kinematic and Precise Point Positioning) to provide centimeter-level positioning accuracy for GPS satellites.

As shown here, RTK-PPP augments location data from multiple satellites with the rover's position relative to a terrestrial base station. (The rover could be an autonomous car, truck, crop harvester, etc.).

One can imagine base stations along highways, freeways, and even in cities, but that would require investments by governments at all levels, auto producers, and other private companies. It would also need standards that are compatible with all GNSS systems. This will not happen overnight, but I am not surprised to see Geely leading the way because:

• Geely founder and Chairman Li Shufu is a risk taker in the mold of Elon Musk and Geespace was initiated about six years ago when he “floated his idea of using hundreds of proprietary mini, low-orbit satellites as a more accurate global positioning system for self-driving cars.” 
• China has built the world's biggest EV charging network, in stark contrast to US failure. This indicates a will to invest in mobility infrastructure.
• Geely is aware of and perhaps collaborating with Chinese GNSS operator BeiDou which is working toward global centimeter-accurate positioning utilizing LEO, MEO, and GEO satellites augmented by terrestrial ground stations. 
• Geely brands sold 2.79 million units in 2023 and China space expert Blaine Curcio concludes that "Within 5-10 years, Geespace could conceivably have a constellation of satellites connecting all Geely cars in a very interesting example of vertical integration (actual use cases pending)." 
• ChatGPT reports that BeiDou currently offers a Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) coverage in much of China and plans to cover the entire nation, which is true, but mistakenly claimed there were GBAS instances outside of China at this time. (However, BeiDou's standard satellite navigation service is used in many nations, which must have confused ChatGPT).

A final note -- several of the references in this post are to Blaine Curcio's China Space Monitor. Check it out if you are interested in what China is doing in space. I also used but took with a grain of salt, conversations with ChanGPT: chat1 and chat2.