OneWeb can’t come close to replacing Starlink in Ukraine, but it could complement it.

Elon Musk assured us that he would not stop the Starlink service in Ukraine. But, given his feud with Trump, his criticism of President Zelensky, and his rash actions with DOGE, can he be trusted? (His termination of USAID is estimated to have resulted in 340,000 deaths so far.)

When askedabout Musk’s influence, Josef Aschbacher, director general of the European Space Agency, said he declined to comment on “the internal politics of the United States and who should influence these decisions” but added “If changes happen and if our US partners and friends are changing their plans, of course we will be ready for plan B.”

The US has decided to reduce aid to Ukraine, and Plan B is being considered. Eutelsat is in talks with the EU about the possibility of replacing Starlink in Ukraine

Eutelsat OneWeb is currently the only low-earth orbit (LEO) alternative to Starlink. Germany has paid for “fewer than 1,000” OneWeb terminals in Ukraine, but Eutelsat CEO Eva Berneke says the company aims to increase this to between 5,000 and 10,000 "relatively fast."

That is admirable, but I don’t see how OneWeb could come close to replacing Starlink in Ukraine.

For a start, there are limitations of the OneWeb satellites and terminals:

•  Oleg Kutkov, a leading Ukrainian Starlink expert, estimates that there are around 130,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine.
• SpaceX has over 7,500 LEO satellites compared to OneWeb’s 630. (Eutelsat also has 35 geostationary (GEO) satellites).
• Kyivstar, the largest mobile operator in Ukraine, plansdirect-to-device Starlink connectivity later this year.
•  Kyivstar has determined that  OneWeb currently lacks sufficient capacity to move forward on their partnership MOU at this time.
• OneWeb satellites orbit at around 1,200 km, while Starlink satellites are between 336 and 570 km, which gives them a latency advantage for real-time battlefield applications.
• OneWeb’s fixed beams enable it to provide guaranteed service levels in specific locations, but Starlink’s dynamic-beam architecture makes better use of available capacity in densely populated areas and in tracking mobile users.
• OneWeb’s fixed terminals are more expensive than Starlink’s, and the portable terminals are heavier and more expensive.
• There are ten different Starlink terminal models/revisions – they have had time to iterate designs and mature and refine manufacturing processes for both terminals and satellites.
• Similarly, Starlink satellite designs have evolved – throughput has increased, intersatellite links were introduced, etc.

More importantly, Starlink is embedded in Ukraine. Systems, supply chains, distribution channels, organizations, and applications have been developed around it, and users, engineers, repair people, etc., have been trained. The first Starlink terminals arrived in Ukraine over three years ago. A week later, they were in the field and providing nationwide connectivity through ground stations in three nearby countries, and within a month, there were 5,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine. Starlink has played an unprecedented, critical role in the management of the war, international relations, and on the battlefield field and it has enabled significant civilian tech mobilization.

One more factor – Starlink is financially stronger than Eutelsat. Eutelsat stock was €28.06 per share in April 2015. When Trump berated Zelensky at the White House on February 28, 2025, it was down to €1.20. As a result of that meeting, it jumped to €7.84 on March 3, but it’s now back down to €2.31.

While OneWeb cannot replace Starlink in Ukraine, it can complement it. For example, OneWeb could provide connectivity and resilient backup for fixed locations like government offices and hospitals, and since Eutelsat operates both GEO and  LEO satellites, latency-tolerant applications like streaming video could be offloaded onto their GEO satellites.