In April 2020, The Chinese State Council's executive meeting declared information technology, including satellite Internet, an important part of the “new technology” and in October, China applied for Guowang, a 12,992-satellite Internet service constellation. Subsequently, a few Guowang test satellites were launched and two other large Chinese constellations were announced, and one, Thousand Sails, already has 54 satellites in orbit. (Thousand Sails launches have had problems with debris and orbit raising, which attests to the immaturity of the Chinese space industry). Finally, Guowang has launched its first production satellites.
As shown above, ten satellites were launched into orbits about 1,100 kilometers above the Earth, with an inclination of 86.5 degrees. The satellites were launched on a Long March 5B rocket which can carry 23,000 Kg to low-Earth orbit (LEO) and they were stacked in a manner that optimized “the use of vertical and radial space within the payload fairing.” If the rocket was fully loaded, they would be quite large – over 2,000 kg each.
For comparison, Starlink’s current V2-mini satellites are 750-800 kg, and the V3 satellites, which will not begin launching until SpaceX's Starship rockets are in service, are expected to be around 1,900 kg.
Thousand Sail's satellites are smaller than either. They recently launched 18 satellites using a Long March 6A rocket which can carry 4,000 kg to sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). I could not find a mass to LEO for the Long March 6A so I asked four AI services to estimate what a rocket capable of launching 4,000 kg to SSO would be able to launch to LEO. The average estimate was 5,700 kg total or only 317 kg per satellite.
Assuming capability is a function of mass, Guowang satellites will be significantly more powerful than Thousand Sails or Starlink's current satellites. I don't know what those functional differences will be – greater capacity, faster data rates, more power, improved inter-satellite capability, connectivity to 6G devices, etc. For speculation on the features of Starlink's forthcoming V3 satellites see slide 62 in this presentation and this article).
The Guowang constellation will also orbit at a relatively high altitude. The first ten are at 1,100 km and over half the planned constellation will be roughly the same altitude. Similarly, Thousand Sails' initial 1.296 satellites are orbiting at 1,160 km. While Starlink initially applied to have some 1,100 km satellites, they later lowered their planned orbits. Guowang's relatively high altitude will help compensate for a lack of ground stations.
In an earlier post, I asked whether Guowang could manufacture and launch satellites fast enough to meet Its ITU commitment of launching 10% of the constellation within two years after the bring-into-use (BIU) date 50% by year 5 and all by year 7. Now that production satellites are in orbit and working, I assume the BIU clock has started or will start soon. Given the mass and orbit altitudes of the satellites and Chinese satellite manufacturing and launch capability, they will have a difficult time meeting the ITU deadlines despite new rockets, but in our politically divided world, some nations may ignore those deadlines or Guowang might simply reapply. (It’s even conceivable that Starlink could launch some Guowang satellites since Elon Musk has to please the Chinese government to protect Tesla’s sales and manufacturing in China).
Guowang is late, but the government is committed and the satellites may be comparable to Starlink's V3 satellites. If they can launch the constellation, there will still be a market in serving BRICS and other politically-allied or neutral nations as well as sensitive government and military organizations that are increasingly concerned with Elon Musk’s political ties and mercurial nature. The large mass of their satellites may also result in features that increase their appeal in some applications like backhaul from remote locations that are not reached by fiber. It will be interesting to see what happens when Guowang ITU deadlines expire.
