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| First Tweet from Ukraine |
On March 19th there
were 5,000 terminals in Ukraine and it was clear that Starlink would play
an unprecedented, critical role in the war. President Zelenskyy was using social
media and teleconferencing in his roles as Commander in Chief of the armed
forces, a global diplomat, and a leader of the Ukrainian people. Starlink was
being used to compensate for Russian destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure,
by civilians and on the battlefield, often in conjunction with drones. Starlink has also enabledimportant civilian volunteer contributions to the war effort, reminiscent
of the working women and the victory gardens
during World War 2 in the US.
Starlink’s value is now well established. Kutkov estimates that there are around 170,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine and the number is constantly increasing. For example:
- The armed forces have around 100,000 terminals provided by various ministries.
- It is common for soldiers to purchase their own terminals. (One retailer has sold almost 2,000 terminals to soldiers so far this year).
- There are thousands of terminals on drone aircraft and boats built by local companies. (One local vendor bought 10,000 terminals for drones).
- Charity foundations like Serhiy Prytula contribute terminals. (The retail price of a roaming terminal in Ukraine is $613).
- Private donors (including Kutkov) contribute drones and terminals.
- One service center reported that 90% of the military terminals coming for repairs are privately owned.
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| Ukrainian drone boat with two Starlink terminals |
Musk’s Grok AI chatbot estimates Starlink’s revenue for
Ukraine support is “likely in the
ballpark of $150-250 million per year as of now”, a relatively unimportant amount, and about $50 million
of that is paid by Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, has expressed
a willingness to seek alternatives to Starlink if necessary and was invaded
by Hitler 1939.
Because of recent statements and actions by Donald
Trump and Elon Musk, Ukraine and its allies became concerned that Starlink
service might possibly be cut off.
As enumerated in this
timeline, Trump has upended the US approach to Ukraine and treated Moscow
more as an ally since he became President, culminating in his recent suspension
of military aid to and intelligence
sharing with Ukraine after he and Vice President Vance berated Zelenskyy in a
televised meeting, overstating the
amount of US support, falsely claiming that Ukraine had not thanked the US for it’s
support and insisting on a “deal” with no security guarantee.
(Recall that in September 1938, English, French, and Italian
leaders signed the Munich Agreement, giving Hitler control of Czechoslovakia in
exchange for his promise not to take more land in Europe, and Ukrainians are
dying in this war).
Elon Musk has also urged Ukraine to accept peace without a security guarantee to stop the bloodshed. His statement that without Starlink the entire front line would collapse caused concern that he might cut Starlink service off.
Thankfully, Musk has since clarified his position,
stating:
"To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree
with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals. Without
Starlink, the Ukrainian lines would collapse, as the Russians can jam all other
communications! We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining
chip."
Taking Musk at his word, Starlink service will remain
available.
