"It's actually even more important to design the factory than it is to design the product itself."
"Expect Level 5 autonomy in "about two years." (Tesla CEO Elon Musk, video interview below)
Model T runabout |
Model A roadster |
So, why do I think the Model 3 might be as significant as the Models T and A?
Manufacturing strategy and scale
Gigafactory capacity projection (source) |
When complete, Gigafactory 1 will be 6 million square feet, making it the biggest building in the world by footprint and second only in volume to the Boeing factory in Washington state. It will produce batteries for homes, vehicles and power companies as well as the Model 3 powertrain -- the motor and gearbox assembly. Final assembly of Model 3s will be done in a separate automotive plant, but they expect subsequent Gigafactories to incorporate the entire auto assembly.
Tesla views a factory as a machine for making machines and they have approached its design as one would approach the design of a multilayer chip. They hope to be able to improve the factory "clock speed" and "density" over time, leading to a 30% cost savings compared to other battery factories. Tesla's manufacturing strategy was outlined in this presentation at the introduction of Gigafactory 1:
Tesla's "wall of patents"before and after (image source) |
Autonomous Control
Many auto manufacturers are working toward self-driving cars, but Tesla seems to be leading the pack. Elon Musk outlined the planned roadmap for the Model 3 in the following interview:
(If you are in a hurry, the discussion of Tesla cars and trucks begins about 11 minutes 10 seconds into the interview, but I'd recommend listening to the entire interview, which also covers boring tunnels, solar roofs, SpaceX and Mars).
Level 5 autonomy |
Those sensors will enable an autonomous cross-country drive this year. Musk says "November or December of this year, we should be able to go all the way from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey." He added that it could have been any two cities on the highway system in a given country "We could change it and make it Seattle-Florida, that day, in real time. So you were going from LA to New York; now go from LA to Toronto." (I wonder if it would work in nations where they drive on the left side of the street).
But that demonstration drive pales in ambition compared to his prediction that, barring regulatory constraints, they will release a software update that brings the Model 3 up to Level 5 autonomy in "about two years."
Other manufacturers are less optimistic -- why might Tesla have a lead over the others?
The artificial neural net technology employed in autonomous vehicles depends upon software design, fast hardware, and access to relevant data. Musk has made several investments in artificial neural net companies, including Go champion DeepMind, and he says his aim is not a financial return but keeping abreast of developments in the field.
That would keep him at least even with possible automotive competitors in hardware and software design, and he has a definite data-collection lead. Tesla vehicles have been online and collecting data for several years. From their inception, Teslas were conceived of as "platforms" for downloadable control software as well as data-collection input devices.
The Model T Ford was the first mass-market car and it had little competition for some time. While the Model 3 may be innovative it, like the Model A Ford, already has competition like the relatively low-cost Chevrolet Bolt and virtually all auto manufacturers are introducing electric or hybrid vehicles. (Chinese owned Volvo has announced that all the models it introduces starting in 2019 will be either hybrids or fully electric).
Of course, Elon Musk predicting radically improved manufacturing or Level 5 autonomy in two years, does not guarantee he will achieve those goals, but do you want to bet against someone who has made landing used rockets on barges at sea a somewhat routine event?