Apoyo a SpaceX Starlink en comunidades remotas

¿Qué tipo de soporte requerirán los clientes de Starlink? El estudio piloto chileno podría proporcionar algunas pistas. 

Cinco compañías están desarrollando constelaciones de satélites de banda ancha de órbita terrestre baja (LEO), pero, a partir de ahora, solo SpaceX planea comercializar directamente a los consumidores. ¿Qué tipo de apoyo requerirán? Un estudio piloto de la conectividad Starlink en comunidades chilenas remotas puede proporcionar algunas respuestas a esa pregunta. 

 

El regulador chileno, SUBTEL,ha autorizado un estudio piloto de un año de duración  de la conectividad Starlink en comunidades rurales remotas y se compromete a apoyarlas  durante el año. En una publicación anterior, especulé sobre las  aplicaciones que las comunidades podrían querer,y en esta, especularé sobre los tipos de apoyo que requerirán, pero para preparar el escenario, necesitamos saber cómo son las comunidades. 

 

Sotomó, el primer sitio piloto, se encuentra en una zona boscosa en un fiordo en el sur de Chile y veinte familias viven en la ciudad. Si bien Sotomó está a solo 35 millas del aeropuerto más cercano en Puerto Montt, el viaje dura aproximadamente tres horas en automóvil o en automóvil más un viaje en ferry. El segundo sitio piloto está en Caleta Sierra en la costa a unas 1.200 millas al norte de Sotomó y SUBTEL dice que habrá otros lugares. 

 

Un generador Diesel suministra energía 12 horas al día durante el invierno y 8 durante el verano en Sotomó y tienen una cobertura de teléfono celular "irregular", pero se utiliza principalmente para llamadas y mensajes de texto ya que los datos son caros. Aún así, las personas han tenido experiencia en Internet móvil y, por lo tanto, están familiarizadas con los servicios y aplicaciones de Internet. 

 

Elon Musk bromeó diciendo que la configuración de Starlink es simple: conéctelo y apunte al cielo, en cualquier orden. No mencionó la parte sobre la necesidad de una vista clara del cielo y la instalación de antenas y el cableado pueden ser difíciles. En Sotomó se encuentra la terminal Starlink en la escuela, dirigida por el profesor Javier de la Barra. Alguien tuvo que conectar la antena al techo de la escuela donde se encuentra la terminal y pasar un cable a un punto de acceso WiFi en el edificio. Una clínica comparte el edificio con la escuela y es posible que hayan corrido un cable hacia la clínica.  

La conexión Starlink brinda a los usuarios acceso al almacenamiento en línea, pero muchas aplicaciones, como el software didáctico interactivo, tendrán que almacenarse en un servidor local que tendría que ser adquirido, configurado, operado y mantenido. Dado que cada sitio de prueba necesitará una red de área local (LAN) y un servidor similares, pueden acordar conjuntamente una configuración, configuración y procedimientos operativos estándar. 

 

El profesor de la Barra y sus homólogos de Caleta Sierra y otros sitios de prueba en Chile y otras naciones podrán compartir experiencias e ideas utilizando las herramientas y servicios de colaboración-apoyo en Internet y que pueden requerir alguna capacitación o la creación de alguna aplicación para facilitar su colaboración. 

 

Por ahora, Sotomó tiene un solo terminal en un solo edificio, pero si la demanda crece, es posible que desee crear una LAN comunitaria, lo que requerirá establecer enlaces cableados o inalámbricos entre edificios y tal vez integrar múltiples cuentas starlink. Si deciden conectar varios edificios, también deben evaluar las ofertas de los competidores de Starlink OneWeb y Telesat, que planean ofrecer servicio en 2022. 

Lo anterior suena como un trabajo para un administrador de sistemas a tiempo parcial, alguien local que necesitará capacitación inicialmente y soporte en línea posterior según sea necesario. Para el estudio piloto, esa capacitación y apoyo pueden ser proporcionados por SpaceX, SUBTEL o el gobierno regional. Los administradores del sistema también podrán ayudarse mutuamente. 

 

También se necesitará capacitación y apoyo para la aplicaciones. Por ejemplo, un consultor educativo especializado en enseñanza en línea y desarrollo curricular o un consultor familiarizado con los recursos y servicios médicos en línea y la experiencia en telemedicina puede ayudar al profesor de la Barra y al personal de la clínica. Estos especialistas estarían disponibles para consultas, para recomendar servicios de Internet, recursos de capacitación, bases de datos, etc., y para facilitar la colaboración y el intercambio de experiencias entre la comunidad de usuarios (maestros y enfermeras) en su área. 

 

Los miembros de la comunidad son usuarios, no desarrolladores, y durante el transcurso del año piloto el software de aplicación tendrá que ser escrito. Por ejemplo, los miembros de la comunidad querrán descargar software, material educativo, entretenimiento, noticias, etc. Dado que la comunidad compartirá un solo enlace a Internet, eso requerirá un sistema para solicitar y hacer cola de material para su posterior descarga desatendida al servidor local. Habrá que diseñar y programar el sistema de programación-descarga. Ese es un ejemplo de software de apoyo que se requerirá, pero supongo que los miembros de la comunidad presentarán otros durante el año piloto, tal vez en apoyo de la enseñanza, la atención médica remota o para las industrias locales de Sotomó: acuicultura, turismo y agricultura. 

 

Las antenas y los discos duros ocasionalmente se romperán y, si el acceso a Internet se pone de en mente, es posible que puedan justificar más combustible para el generador comunitario actual o un generador dedicado en la escuela, una cosa más que apoyar. 

 

Los ISP de banda ancha LEO servirán a ubicaciones remotas y de difícil acceso como Sotomó y cada operador tendrá que lidiar con el problema mundano del soporte. SpaceX planea vender directamente a los usuarios finales y si Starlink tiene éxito, puede haber 50 o 100 comunidades como Sotomó en Chile y miles en todo el mundo. Los grupos de soporte de usuarios y administradores de sistemas se formarán y serán valiosos, pero SpaceX tendrá que desempeñar un papel en el soporte. He ofrecido algunas conjeturas sobre los tipos de apoyo que se necesitarán y aprenderemos más sobre lo que necesitan las comunidades remotas durante este estudio piloto. 

For the original English version of this post, click here and give feedback on translation errors.

Supporting SpaceX Starlink in remote communities

What sorts of support will Starlink customers require? The Chilean pilot study might provide some clues.

Five companies are developing low-Earth orbit (LEO) broadband satellite constellations, but, as of now, only SpaceX is planning to market directly to consumers. What sorts of support will they require? A pilot study of Starlink connectivity in remote Chilean communities may provide some answers to that question. 

The Chilean regulator, SUBTEL, has authorized a year-long pilot study of Starlink connectivity in remote, rural communities and is committed to supporting them during the year. In an earlier post, I speculated on the applications the communities might want, and in this one, I'll speculate on the sorts of support they will require, but to set the stage, we need to know what the communities are like.

Sotomó, the first pilot site, is in a forested area on a fjord in southern Chile and twenty families live in the town. While Sotomó is only about 35 miles from the nearest airport in Puerto Montt, the trip takes about three hours driving or driving plus a ferry ride. The second pilot site is in Caleta Sierra on the coast about 1,200 miles north of Sotomó and SUBTEL says there will be others.

A diesel generator supplies power 12 hours a day during the winter and 8 during the summer in Sotomó and they have "patchy" cell phone coverage, but it is used mainly for calls and text since data is expensive. Still, the people have had mobile Internet experience and therefore have some familiarity with Internet services and applications.

Elon Musk quipped that Starlink setup is simple -- plug it in and point it at the sky, in either order. He didn't mention the part about requiring a clear view of the sky and antenna installation and cabling may be difficult. In Sotomó the Starlink terminal is at the school, headed by professor Javier de la Barr. Someone had to attach the antenna to the roof of the schoolhouse where the terminal is located and run a cable to a WiFi access point in the building. A clinic shares the building with the school and they may have run a cable into the clinic. 

The Starlink connection gives the users access to online storage, but many applications -- like interactive courseware -- will have to be stored on a local server that would have to be acquired, configured, operated, and maintained. Since each test site will need a similar local-area network (LAN) and server, they can jointly agree on a standard configuration, setup, and operating procedures. 

Professor de la Barra and his counterparts in Caleta Sierra and other test sites in Chile and other nations will be able to share experience and ideas using the collaboration-support tools and services on the Internet and that may require some training or setting up some application to facilitate their collaboration.

For now, Sotomó has just one terminal in a single building, but if demand grows they may want to create a community LAN, which will require establishing wired or wireless links between buildings and perhaps integrating multiple Starlink accounts.If they decide to connect multiple buildings, they should also evaluate the offerings of Starlink competitors OneWeb and Telesat which plan to be offering service in 2022.

The above sounds like a job for a part-time system administrator -- someone local who will need training initially and subsequent online support as needed. For the pilot study, that training and support may be provided by SpaceX, SUBTEL, or the regional government. The system administrators will also be able to help each other.

Application training and support will also be needed. For example, an educational consultant specializing in online teaching and curriculum development or a consultant familiar with online medical resources and services and experience in telemedicine may be able to help Professor de la Barra and the clinic staff. These specialists would be available for consultation, to recommend Internet services, training resources, databases, etc, and to facilitate collaboration and experience sharing among the community of users -- teachers and nurses -- in their area. 

The community members are users, not developers, and during the course of the pilot year application software will have to be written. For example, community members will want to download software, educational material, entertainment, news, etc. Since the community will be sharing a single link to the Internet, that will require a system for requesting and queuing material for subsequent unattended download to the local server. The scheduling-downloading system will have to be designed and programmed. That is one example of supporting software that will be required, but my guess is that community members will come up with others during the pilot year -- perhaps in support of teaching, remote health care, or for Sotomó's local industries -- aquaculture, tourism, and farming.

Antennas and hard drives will occasionally break and if Internet access catches on, they may be able to justify more fuel for the current community generator or a dedicated generator at the schoolhouse -- one more thing to support.

LEO broadband ISPs will be serving remote, hard-to-reach locations like Sotomó and each operator will have to deal with the mundane issue of support. SpaceX plans to sell directly to end-users and if Starlink succeeds, there may be 50 or 100 communities like Sotomó in Chile and thousands around the world. User and system administrator support groups will form and be valuable, but SpaceX will have to play a role in support. I've offered some guesses as to the kinds of support that will be needed and we will learn more about what remote communities need during this pilot study.

Update 9/13/2021

For a lightly edited Microsoft Translate version of this post in Spanish, click here. Please give feedback on translation errors.

The long-run effect of Cuba's recent Internet-augmented protests

Neither tweets and Facebook video clips nor the repetition of tired slogans from Granma are likely to convince many people to change their minds.

It's now more than 6 weeks since the Cuban political protests and accompanying Internet service disruption. Will they lead to a long-run change in the Cuban Internet or the Cuban political situation?

Let's start with the Cuban Internet. Many of the Internet changes during the protests have disappeared. Total daily traffic, the ratios of mobile to fixed traffic, and human to automated posts, and the proportion of blocked Signal sessions are about what they were before the protests.

But everything is not the same. Before the protests, tech-savvy Cubans had been using the Psiphon VPN service to access content the Cuban government blocked. In the ten days leading up to the protests, Psiphon averaged 17,285 unique daily users.  During the protests, daily users peaked at 1.425 million on July 16, then began to taper off. However, it did not return to the pre-protest level. For the 13 days shown here, the average was 109,429 unique users per day, over six times the number during the runup to the protests.

Speed measured at the
University of Havana

Keith McManamen from Psiphon said that this kind of retention -- 5x-10x baseline -- is typical of their experience in other nations and that Cuban usage intensity -- bytes/unique user/day and sessions/user/day -- has returned to pre-protest levels. Since Psyphon access is slow and Internet access is expensive in Cuba, roughly 90,000 new users must be motivated.

Another Internet discontinuity is the existence and continued growth of a crowd-sourced archive of images and videos of the protests. There were 219 documented protests as of August 6 and today there are 281. This archive may inspire future discontent or it may be used to identify and prosecute protest participants. Regardless, it will be available to historians and political scientists -- either at its present URL or, if it's deleted, on the Internet Archive. (As an aside, the first such historical protest archive that I know of contains all of the Usenet traffic during the protests against the 1991 Soviet Coup attempt and it is still available online).

There is also speculation that the protests triggered or accelerated the new Internet regulation, announced on August 17th. The regulation treats online content as a potential security threat and bans “spreading fake news,” “slander that impacts the prestige of the country,” “inciting protests,” “promoting social indiscipline,” and undermining someone’s fame or self-esteem.”  The government has also set up a Web site for citizens to report violations -- crowd-sourcing 1984.

Cuba has had previous protests, but the prolonged, nationwide protests that began on July 11th were a product of mobile Internet access, which began rolling out in 2018. The protests led to the changes to the Internet mentioned above, but will the Internet be the cause of long-run political or social change? 

I suspect not. 

Cloudflare reports that during the last 30 days, 70% of Cuban traffic was from mobile phones and 30% from fixed desktops, as it was before the protests. Furthermore, the majority of the fixed traffic is from workplaces where access is controlled and easily surveilled. Therefore, most political traffic is to and from mobile phones, which means posts are short and divisive -- government supporters are talking to and reinforcing the beliefs of other government supporters and the same goes for the protesters. (There are many beneficial Internet applications in business, science, health care, education, entertainment, etc., but they generally depend upon the fixed Internet).

I don't know what percent of Cubans support or oppose the government, but neither tweets and Facebook video clips nor the repetition of tired slogans from Granma are likely to convince many Cubans to change their minds. Reasoned, long-form argument on the fixed Internet might be a little more persuasive, but things like money, power, organization, demographics, negotiation and compromise and exogenous factors like climate change, COVID, or political and economic decisions made in China will determine Cuba's political and economic future, not the mobile Internet.

 

¿Cómo utilizarán las comunidades rurales en Chile SpaceX Starlink?

¿Cómo utilizarán Internet las personas en las ciudades de prueba durante este estudio piloto de un año y cómo afectará a las personas y las organizaciones?

Sotomó está a 3-5 horas en barco y en coche desde
el aeropuerto más cercano.

La Subsecretaría de Telecomunicaciones de Chile ha comenzado un estudio piloto de un año del servicio de Internet satelital Starlink de SpaceX . No sé cuántas ubicaciones de prueba están planeando, pero se han seleccionado las dos primeras. La semana pasada hablé del primero , la escuela John F. Kennedy en Sotomó, un pueblo aislado a 41.6 ° Sur en un fiordo en la Región de los Lagos de Chile, y el segundo será en Caleta Sierra en la costa a unas 1.200 millas al norte de Sotomó. SpaceX también está considerando un estudio piloto europeo en Georgia y quizás (con suerte) en otros.

Estos estudios piloto brindan la oportunidad de aprender qué aplicaciones quieren y usan las personas en una ubicación remota recién conectada, y de estudiar el impacto de Internet en las personas, las organizaciones y la sociedad en la comunidad.

En los primeros días de Internet, mis colegas y yo utilizamos un marco de seis dimensiones para evaluar su estado en los países en desarrollo, y una de esas dimensiones era la absorción sectorial: el grado en que se utilizaba Internet para los negocios, la educación, la salud, la administración pública y después de una entrevista con un sabio profesor de la India, agregué entretenimiento.

La terminal Starlink en Sotomó está instalada en un edificio escolar, por lo que la primera aplicación será la educación básica. Los niños ya han comenzado a utilizar material educativo en línea. Cuando se le preguntó al profesor a cargo de la Escuela Kennedy, Javier de la Barra, cómo veía la escuela usando el enlace de Internet, respondió que, entre otras cosas, esperaba usarlo para su desarrollo profesional .

Si bien una sola conexión Starlink no puede admitir la educación en línea interactiva simultánea para toda una comunidad, el material interactivo descargable como el de Learning Equality y otro material educativo grabado (definido en términos generales) se puede descargar y servir localmente. Será interesante ver a qué material educativo se accede durante el año del estudio piloto, quién accede a él y qué piensan de su valor.

Hablé con Claudio Fuentes, cuya familia opera un lugar de veraneo y una granja de acuicultura en Sotomó. Ahora es profesor en Gales, pero regresa a Sotomó todos los años y pasó todos sus veranos allí antes de mudarse a Europa. Una de las cosas que me dijo fue que también hay una clínica en la escuela. Starlink permitirá la recuperación de información médica, la consulta médica remota y la telemedicina y, como el profesor de la Barra, las personas que trabajan en la clínica pueden utilizar Internet para el desarrollo profesional.

El negocio es otro de los sectores que medimos, y el profesor Fuentes me dijo que los dos principales negocios en Sotomó son los pequeños centros turísticos y la acuicultura: cultivar “semillas” de mejillones para venderlos a otros acuicultores y criar mejillones adultos. Su familia hace ambas cosas, y tienen un sitio web simple para su resort y pueden comunicarse con clientes y proveedores usando teléfonos móviles, pero dice que los datos móviles son muy costosos para la gente de Sotomó, y principalmente usan sus teléfonos para comunicarse con cada uno. otro. Además, de la Barra dice la señal es irregular y los residentes usan sus teléfonos asomándose por las ventanas o remando hacia la bahía. ¿Podría una conexión a Internet rápida y estable permitir a un resort mantener un sitio web y un sistema de reservas elaborado? ¿Podría un cultivador de mejillones buscar y hablar con proveedores y clientes y encontrar información sobre investigaciones y técnicas en el campo?

Además de los procedimientos operativos, se puede imaginar que tanto las empresas como la población en general utilicen Internet para recuperar información gubernamental y presentar impuestos, solicitar licencias y realizar otras transacciones gubernamentales.

Con un solo enlace de Internet, el entretenimiento individual, como el material educativo, se descargará principalmente: películas, telenovelas, juegos, etc. Sospecho que se desarrollará una sólida "red de zapatillas" sin conexión con personas intercambiando archivos en unidades flash. Esto se puede hacer dentro de una comunidad como Sotomó o en una escala más amplia. El ejemplo más importante que conozco es El Paquete Semanal, un paquete semanal de entretenimiento, noticias, software, etc., que circula por Cuba. El Paquete podría ser el empleador privado más grande de Cuba y puede ver el contenido de una semana típica aquí .

Si bien la mayor parte del entretenimiento se descargará, puede haber ocasiones para que la comunidad lo vea fuera del horario escolar, por ejemplo, ver partidos de fútbol los fines de semana o transmitir películas a una pantalla grande durante las noches.

Cuando hicimos nuestros primeros estudios sobre Internet, pasamos por alto por completo el potencial de Internet como medio de noticias: había pocos periódicos y revistas en línea y no había blogs ni redes sociales en ese momento. Será interesante ver qué fuentes de noticias decide descargar y poner a disposición de la comunidad. Esto es particularmente importante en este momento, ya que Chile está atravesando un acalorado debate político y se está redactando una nueva constitución. La restricción de la conectividad limitada podría ser una ventaja, ya que las redes sociales interactivas y personales, han sido causa de división y de  informaciónes falsas. En cambio, la comunidad tendrá que ponerse de acuerdo sobre una lista de fuentes de noticias descargadas, y ese proceso en sí mismo podría conducir a un diálogo positivo.

He especulado sobre algunas posibles aplicaciones que podríamos ver en Sotomó y las otras ciudades piloto: los servicios y el contenido que pueden producir y consumir. Estoy seguro de que habrá otros en los que no he pensado, Sotomó no es Los Ángeles. Lo más importante que aprenderemos es cómo, después de un año, la gente ha utilizado Internet y cómo ha impactado a las personas y organizaciones en las ciudades de prueba.

Actualización 8/25/2001

La versión original en inglés de esta publicación está aquí.

How will rural Chileans use SpaceX Starlink?

How will the people in the test towns use the Internet during this year-long pilot study and how will it impact individuals and organizations?

Sotomó is 3-5 hours by boat and car from the nearest airport.

The Chilean Undersecretary of Telecommunications (SUBTEL) has begun a year-long pilot study of SpaceX's Starlink satellite Internet service. I don't know how many test locations they are planning, but the first two have been selected. Last week I discussed the first, the John F. Kennedy school in Sotomó, an isolated town at 41.6° South on a fjord in Chile's Lake Region, and the second will be in Caleta Sierra on the coast about 1,200 miles north of Sotomó. SpaceX is also considering a European pilot study in Georgia and perhaps (hopefully) others.

These pilot studies provide an opportunity to learn what applications the people in a newly connected, remote location want and use and to study the impact of the Internet on individuals, organizations, and society in the community. 

In the early days of the Internet, my colleagues and I used a six-dimension framework for assessing its state in developing nations and one of those dimensions was sectoral absorption -- the extent to which the Internet was being used for business, education, health care, public administration, and, after an interview with a wise Indian professor, I added entertainment.

The Starlink terminal in Sotomó is installed in a school building, so the first application will be grammar school education. The children have already begun using online educational material and when the teacher in charge of the Kennedy school Javier de la Barra was asked how he saw the school using the Internet link he replied that, among other things, he looked forward to using it for professional development. 

While a single Starlink connection cannot support simultaneous interactive online education for an entire community, downloadable interactive material like that of Learning Equality and other recorded educational material (broadly defined) can be downloaded and served locally. It will be interesting to see what educational material is accessed during the year of the pilot study, who accesses it, and what they think of its value.

I spoke with Claudio Fuentes whose family operates a summer resort and an aquaculture farm in Sotomó. He is now a professor in Wales but returns to Sotomó every year and spent all his summers there before moving to Europe. One of the things he told me was that there is also a clinic at the schoolhouse. Starlink will enable medical information retrieval, remote medical consultation, and telemedicine and, like professor de la Barra, people working at the clinic can use the Internet for professional development. 

Business is another one of the sectors we measured and professor Fuentes told me that the two major businesses in Sotomó are small tourist resorts and aquaculture -- raising baby mussel "seeds" for sale to other aquafarmers and raising adult mussels. His family does both and they have a simple Web site for their resort and can communicate with customers and suppliers using mobile phones, but he says mobile data is very expensive for the people of Sotomó and they mainly use their phones to communicate with each other. Furthermore, de la Barra says the signal is patchy and residents get on their phones by leaning out windows or paddling out into the bay. Might a fast, stable Internet connection enable a resort to maintain an elaborate Web site and reservation system? Might a mussel farmer search for and talk with suppliers and customers and find information on research and techniques in the field?

In addition to operating procedures, one can envision both businesses and the general population using the Internet to retrieve government information and file taxes, apply for licenses and conduct other government transactions.

With only a single Internet link, individual entertainment, like educational material, will mostly be downloaded -- movies, telenovelas, games, etc. I suspect that a robust "sneakernet" will develop offline with people exchanging files on flash drives. This can be done within a community like Sotomó or on a wider scale. The foremost example I know of is El Paquete Semanal, a weekly package of entertainment, news, software, etc. that circulates throughout Cuba. El Paquete might be Cuba's largest private employer and you can see the contents of a typical week here. 

While most entertainment will be downloaded, there may be occasions for community viewing outside of school hours, for example, watching soccer games on weekends or streaming movies to a large display during the evenings.

When we did our early Internet studies, we totally overlooked the potential of the Internet as a news medium -- there were few online papers and magazines and no blogs or social media at the time. It will be interesting to see what news sources the community decides to download and make available. This is particularly important at this time since Chile is undergoing heated political debate and a new constitution is being written. The constraint of limited connectivity might be an advantage in the case of news since personal, interactive social media, a major source of division and false information, will not be practical. Instead, the community will have to agree on a slate of downloaded news sources and that process in itself might lead to positive dialog.

I've speculated on some possible applications we might see in Sotomó and the other pilot cities -- the services and content they may produce and consume. I am sure there will be others I have not thought of -- Sotomó is not Los Angeles. The most important things we will learn are how, after a year, the people have used the Internet and how it has impacted individuals and organizations in the test towns.

Update 8/25/2021

For a lightly-edited Spanish language version of this post, click here.

SpaceX Starlink comes to South America

This one-year pilot study in rural Chile will be productive and successful.

Starlink antenna on the roof of the
John F. Kennedy school

SpaceX has roughly 90,000 Starlink beta test customers in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand and now they have one in South America --  in Sotomó, an isolated town at 41.6° South in Chile's Lake Region. Chile's second terminal will be online at a school in Caleta Sierra in a few days and other pilot locations will follow.  

Twenty families live in Sotomó and it is only accessible by private boats or subsidized services that navigate the Reloncaví Estuary on which it is located. The town has electricity about 12 hours a day thanks to a diesel generator installed by the Lake Region government in 2019. 

Javier de la Barra, the teacher in charge of the seven-student John F. Kennedy school where the terminal has been installed, said the service will be available to community members as well as students. Tablets are being provided for the students and he expects Internet connectivity will enrichen and improve the curriculum and student experience and, perhaps more important, he expects that it will improve his ability as an educator.

The John F. Kennedy school in Sotomó

My first reaction was that that sounds like a lot to expect from a single 1-200 Mbps Internet connection, but then I remembered that this a school with seven students and a teacher who is motivated to improve his ability as an educator. Add a local-area network with a server for downloaded courseware like that of the Khan Academy or other teaching material and provide technical and pedagogic support and this sounds like a promising pilot project. It will be most interesting to see what sort of procedures, software and curricular innovation is developed around a single link to the Internet and if it is replicated, by the online community of educators like Javier de la Barra.

Furthermore, speed and latency will improve with time as SpaceX upgrades its software and, in the long run, the satellite constellation. My guess is that the first equipment upgrade will be a new generator or larger diesel fuel tank so they can be online, perhaps downloading content, more than 12 hours a day.

It will also be interesting to hear how the community members use their access. I don't know anything about the Sotomó economy so can't speculate on business applications, but there is at least one tourism business, Termas de Sotomó (Sotomó Hot Springs), which already has a Web site. (Perhaps it uses a geosynchronous satellite ISP). In addition to business applications, I'll bet a lot of movies and other entertainment content will be downloaded and a thriving sneaker net -- sharing files on flash drives -- will evolve. How long will it be before someone develops a system that takes requests for unattended downloads?  (For an idea of the breadth of material that can circulate on a sneakernet, see this look at the contents of one week of Cuba's "weekly package").

In the early days of the Internet, my colleagues and I studied its diffusion and application in developing nations, including Chile. Sotomó and other pilots present us with a fresh opportunity to study the applications and social and individual impact of today's Internet on a new, "greenfield" community.

At the time of our early studies, Chile was arguably the most advanced networking nation in Latin America and Chile's GDP per capita is second only to Uraguay in South America and 50% greater than that of third-place Argentina. Furthermore, the government and telecommunications industry recognize Chile's significant digital divide and are committed to rectifying it. (This was not lost on SpaceX -- they established a Chilean foreign affiliate company in July 2019). Given that background, I would not be surprised to see SpaceX Starlink become part of Chile's future rural connectivity infrastructure.

The opening ceremony for the Sotomó project was attended by the Chilean Minister of Transport and Telecommunications, Gloria Hutt, who said:

The arrival of Starlink in Sotomó marks a before-and-after in terms of digital inclusion for our country. This revolutionary technology will allow us to bring high-speed connection to the most extreme points of our immense and varied geography, democratizing internet access and all the benefits it brings in favor of multiple areas of our lives.

That statement is reminiscent of the rosy vision that many, including me, had in the early, academic years of the Internet, but we were naive. We have since learned that the Internet enables Nigerian princes, fake news, filter bubbles, etc. along with the good stuff.

Chilean prosperity, combined with economic inequality (the Chilean Gini coefficient is fourth highest in South America), has led to violent protests and deep political division. Chile should heed the experience of the United States and other nations and be aware of the social and political risks that may attend enhanced rural connectivity.

I don't want to end on a negative note. As Minister Hutt pointed out, rural connectivity and reduction of the digital divide, will in itself diminish the economic and cultural inequality at the heart of Chilean unrest.

Update 8/11/2021

I spoke with someone from Sotomó today and learned that there is also a clinic in the school building -- paving the way for medical information retrieval, remote medical consultation, and telemedicine.

Update 8/20/2021

For a lightly edited machine translation of this post into Spanish, click here and let me know of corrections to the translation.

A simulation of the SpaceX, Amazon, Telesat and OneWeb broadband satellite constellations

Over two years ago, an MIT research group ran a simulation of the low-Earth orbit broadband constellations of OneWeb, SpaceX, and Telesat, and last January they repeated the simulation updating with revised constellation characteristics and adding Amazon's Project Kuiper.

They ran the new simulation twice, once using the planned initial deployments of each constellation and a second time using the configuration shown below, which shows final deployments assuming that change requests that were pending in January would be approved. (SpaceX's have been approved). I will discuss the second simulation here and you can consult the paper for the results of the initial deployment simulation.

The following figure shows the total system throughput for each constellation as a function of the number of ground stations and whether or not the satellites have optical inter-satellite links (OISLs) enabling them to route traffic through the in-orbit grid. (The lines show averages and the shaded regions show interquartile values).

Note that Telesat is committed to having OISLs in all their satellites and SpaceX will have them in their polar-orbit version 1.5 satellites that are launching this year and in all version 2 satellites starting next year. OneWeb initially planned to include OISLs but decided not to for now and Amazon has not committed to them but has formed an OISL hardware team.

The following figure shows the number of satellites in line of sight (LoS) at full deployment and population as a function of latitude. All Amazon satellites are in inclined orbits, so, while major population centers are served, polar regions are not and the altitudes of the OneWeb and Telesat constellations increase the numbers of satellites in LoS.

If interested, you should read this and the earlier paper (links in the opening paragraph) for details on the methodology, assumptions, and results, but I will conclude with a couple of caveats.

This simulation ignores the 7,518 very low-Earth orbit satellites that have been approved for SpaceX and the designs of all of the constellations are in flux. SpaceX will soon be launching version 1.5 satellites followed by version 2 next year. Similarly, OneWeb will be launching improved satellites by the time the constellation is complete and Telesat and Amazon are still in the design phase.

The simulation assumes that demand is proportional to population (based on a 0.1-degree resolution grid), so mobile utilization by ships, planes, and vehicles is not considered. It also assumes each individual consumes an average of 300 Kbps and the total addressable market is 10% of the global population. As they admit, the 10% is optimistic. (Elon Musk expects 3-5%). Since SpaceX will be charging the same price in every nation, their per-capita subscription rates will vary with national income, and the companies' target markets vary. For example, Telesat will not market to consumers. 

While the specifics will change and this and other simulations will have to be rerun over time, this simulation considers key variables, and general conclusions can be drawn. For example, in this simulation, maximum throughput is from 13-42% higher when 20 Gbps OISLs are assumed. Currently, only SpaceX and Telesat are committed to OISLs, but since OISL technology is improving and they also improve latency, save on ground station cost and enable coverage at sea and other isolated locations, I expect all operators to eventually adopt them. (We may also see OISLs between layers, for example, between Telesat's LEO and GEO constellations).

Elon Musk interview: SpaceX, Starlink and his motivation and philosophy

Elon Musk packed a lot about SpaceX and Starlink into a 32-minute interview at the 2021 Mobile World Congress and ended with a discussion of his motivation and the roles of his three companies -- SpaceX, Starlink, and Neuralnk. Let's start with the SpaceX and Starlink update and conclude with the philosophy and motivation. (Scroll to the end of the post for the video of the interview).

• Starlink will fill in the gaps between fiber and 5G offering viable service to the most difficult to reach 3-5% percent of the population that are in sparsely-populated regions.
• They currently have over 1,500 operating satellites with 5 MW combined power and a capacity of about 30 Tb/s.
• They may have over 500,000 users in 12 months.
• They expect to achieve sub-20 ms latency.
• They are currently authorized to provide service in about 12 nations and will be able to offer global service (excluding polar regions) in five weeks.
• Their software-defined phased-array antennas for satellites and ground stations are the  most sophisticated and advanced technology available, offering microsecond switching with no discernable jitter.
• They have advanced rapidly reusable (booster and fairing) launch capability.
• Last year they delivered about 2/3 of all payload mass to orbit and this year they expect to deliver closer to 80 percent. China will deliver about 12 percent and everyone else the remainder.
• They are learning how to make satellites, terminals, and gateways -- improving the "machine that makes the machines."
• They will soon be launching version 1.5 satellites with inter-satellite laser links (ISLLs) to serve high latitude regions.
• Next year's version 2 satellites will have significantly more capability and ISLLs.
• They plan more gateways at major service centers.
• They are nearly ready to announce data backhaul agreements with two major-nation mobile companies.
• They have an attractive proposition in countries in which telephone companies are required to subsidize rural connectivity.
• They will have invested $5-10 billion by the time they have a positive cash flow and will have to continue investing -- maybe $20-30 billion over time -- to remain competitive with constantly improving cellular and cheaper geosynchronous satellite Internet service.
• Their goal is rapidly reusable reliable rockets. With a Falcon 9 launch, 60% of the cost is the booster, 20% the upper stage, 10% the fairing, and the launch and recovery process is about 10%, and they are doing well at booster and fairing recovery.
• The retail price of Starlink service will be the same everywhere, which surprised me.
• Terminal cost is now over $1,000 and they hope to get that down to $250-300.
• Starship is designed for full and rapid reusability and will be able to launch 100 and with refinement 150 tons to orbit with no refurbishment between flights -- like an airplane.
• Starship uses low-cost methane-oxygen fuel so the propellant cost per launch will be about the same as with the Falcon 9.
• The marginal cost per launch will be around $2 million, which is less than the original Falcon one rocket.
• With orbital refueling, Starship will be able to deliver 100, possibly 200, tons to The Moon or Mars.
• Musk repeated his oft-quoted statement that his goal for Starlink is not to go bankrupt and his oversimplified claim that setting up a Starlink terminal is as simple as plugging it in and pointing it at the sky. He also restated his recent sophomoric tweet about having 69.420 customers.

Underlying philosophy

At the end of the interview, the moderator said Musk seemed to take on new challenges rather than opportunities and asked what criteria he used when deciding to take on a new challenge.

Musk began his answer by stating the purpose of three of his companies

• SpaceX: to extend the scope and scale of consciousness beyond Earth.
• Tesla: To ensure that life is good on Earth with sustainable energy.
• Neuralink: To achieve long-term AI-human symbiosis.

All contribute to the end of expanding the scope and scale of consciousness:

"Generallly these companies are oriented toward, like, what actions can I think of to do to maximize the probability that the future is good and that that future jncludes the expansion of the scope and scale of consciouslnes. This is based on my fundamental philospy of, you know, we dont really know what all the answers are or even what questions to ask but if we are able to expand the scope and scale of conciousness then we are better able to know what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe."

I wish the interviewer had followed up by asking him to speculate on the possible side-effects of expanding the scope and scale of human-machine consciousness in pursuit of understanding the universe.

Here is the video of the interview:

The G7 and EU join China in call for space debris and collision regulation

Last month, the Chinese government published space situational awareness and traffic management regulations and procedures designed to guard against collisions in orbit and mitigate space debris, and this month, at the G7 summit, delegates from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the USA, the UK, and the EU pledged to take action to tackle the growing hazard of space debris as our planet’s orbit becomes increasingly crowded.

They stated their commitment to "safe and sustainable use of space to support humanity’s ambitions now and in the future,” acknowledged the “the growing hazard of space debris and increasing congestion in Earth’s orbit" and agreed "to strengthen our efforts to ensure the sustainable use of space for the benefit and in the interests of all countries."

They called upon all nations to work together, through groups like the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, the International Organization for Standardization, and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee, to preserve the space environment for future generations. 

Even Russia is talking about cooperation in space. In a recent interview, Vladamir Putin said they were not splitting off from the U.S. and moving forward with China. He denied reports that Russia was preparing to give or to offer to Iran a satellite technology that will enable it to target military targets and said "We don't want space militarized, in the same manner, we don't want cyberspace militarized." (That's not very encouraging is it :-)?

These are positive steps that would seem to set the stage for cooperation, at least between the G7, EU, and China. The governments and agencies named above must collaborate on this issue, but they need input from the organizations that operate and monitor satellites like SpaceX, GuoWang, the US Space Force, NASA, LeoLabs, etc. Let's hope they act quickly because, with tens of thousands of low-Earth orbit satellites approved for launch, the clock is ticking.

We got a wake-up call on May 12th when an external camera discovered
that a piece of debris that was too small to track had hit the International
Space Station. Source

Chinese space situational awareness and traffic management regulations and procedures

China's active (orange) and inactive (blue) satellites in low-
Earth orbit today (source). They plan to launch many more,
including a 12,992-satellite broadband Internet constellation.

In a recent issue of the Dongfang Hour Newsletter, Blaine Curcio pointed out that China's powerful State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND) had published a notice intended to promote the orderly development of microsatellites and strengthen safety management.

The notice defines microsatellites as being below 1,000 kilograms, which would include those making up China's planned GwoWang/SatNet broadband constellation. Since this is slated to be a very large (12,992 satellite), it will exacerbate the problem of potential collisions in low-Earth orbit.

The notice lists 24 requirements many of which have to do with space situational awareness and traffic management:

• Microsatellites should have mature and reliable de-orbit capability and avoid long-term occupation of common orbits. Satellites below 2,000 kilometers should de-orbit within 25 years of the end of the mission and those over 2,000 should rise to the graveyard orbit.
• Satellite operators should take necessary technical measures to avoid the generation of separate fragments in orbit, including falling off, discarding, throwing, etc., and avoid explosions of energy storage components such as fuel tanks and batteries.
• A  debris-mitigation plan should accompany the application for a license to launch. It shall include theoretical analysis, technical measures to be taken, effect prediction, etc, and meet the requirements mentioned above.
• When a microsatellite is launched into orbit or its status in orbit changes, the owner shall inform the National Defense Science and Industry Bureau.
• Thirty days before microsatellites carry out operations such as orbit transfer, rendezvous and docking, debris removal, and on-orbit maintenance, the operator shall notify the relevant national authorities. If a major security risk occurs during operation, it shall be terminated or immediately adjusted.
• Relevant national departments will announce early warnings of possible microsatellite collisions, review evasion strategies, research risk, and recommend mitigation action.
• Microsatellite operators should carry out collision avoidance maneuvers when discovering the risk of collision and report the situation and action taken to the relevant national authorities within one hour of the discovery of the risk.
• Microsatellite operators should report collisions to the relevant national authorities within one hour.
• In the event of a major emergency or emergency response event, the microsatellite operator should obey the overall management policies of the relevant state departments.
• State departments are responsible for the daily monitoring and evaluation of the orbit status of microsatellites and de-orbit activities. When the orbit or status of microsatellite changes, the operator shall promptly inform the relevant state departments. 
• For those who fail to report relevant information as required, the state department may take appropriate measures.
• Microsatellites with mission objectives such as technology verification and scientific experiments have a relatively short business cycle and are encouraged to operate in orbits below 350 kilometers in order to facilitate rapid de-orbit after completion of the mission.

Disclaimer: The above is an edited version of a Google translation of the SASTIND notice and I welcome corrections, but the main point is that China acknowledges the importance of space safety. That's good news, but preserving the space commons will require agreement on regulations and procedures among all governments and companies that operate satellites and track orbiting objects.

SpaceX will soon have reusable rockets that can launch hundreds of satellites at a time and sometime after that China will be capable of the same. Chinese state-owned enterprises and at least one private company are working on reusability and they have the opportunity to learn from videos of SpaceX's soft-landing failures and publically available analysis from SpaceX and journalists like the Everyday Astronaut. The clock is ticking.

Update 6/14/2021

Andrew Jones has reported that the development plans for the 14th five-year plan period (2021-25) of the China National Space Administration includes a section on "expanding space cooperation and enhancing the common well-being of humankind".

SpaceX Starlink vs Telesat Lightspeed

Based on the company’s study of the broadband market’s rise and how to better support it, I guess it’s something we had to do. For us, you have no choice but to land at LEO.
Telesat President and CEO Dan Goldberg (Source)

With 1,675 satellites launched and 500,000 requests for service in the United States alone, SpaceX Starlink clearly leads all would-be providers of low Earth orbit (LEO) internet service to consumers. However, it is arguable that Telesat Lightspeed is in the lead, or contending for the lead with SpaceX, in non-consumer enterprise, government, mobile backhaul, mobility and rural community markets. SpaceX will eventually offer service to non-consumers -- they have already applied for mobile connectivity -- but have focused on consumers from day one.

Telesat is focusing on organizations.

Telesat is an established Geostationary orbit (GEO) Internet service provider, but it became clear that their customers and others were interested in LEO service so they began researching markets, evolving technology, and system design. (Goldberg estimates that about 25% of Telesat’s current GEO business could be served better from satellites in LEO).

Both companies started their LEO projects around the same time. In November 2014 Elon Musk tweeted that SpaceX was "in the early stages of developing advanced micro-satellites operating in large formations" and they launched two test satellites in February 2018. In April 2016, Telesat ordered two prototype satellites, to begin tests for the design of a LEO satellite constellation. LEO Vantage-1 was launched in January 2018 and LEO Vantage-2 was launched in November 2017.

In the interim, SpaceX has made spectacular progress in rocket and launch capability while Telesat focused on LEO system design, conducting tests and demonstrations with their GEO customers and others, working on the DARPA Blackjack constellation, and evaluating potential vendors. This work led them to the decision to ignore the consumer market and that is reflected in the design of their constellation. Let's consider some of the characteristics of the SpaceX and Telesat systems.

Telesat plans to launch 78 polar-orbit satellites at an altitude of 1,015 km and 220 inclined-orbit satellites at 1,325 km while SpaceX's first phase is 4,408 satellites between 540 and 570 km altitude and inclinations from 53 to 97.6 degrees. SpaceX has permission to launch 12,000 satellites and has applied for 30,000 more and Telesat has applied to launch 1,600 more satellites if things go well. The mass of Telesat's satellite will be around 700 kg and SpaceX satellites are around 269 kg. As we see below, Telesat's satellites are larger because they do more -- process inter-satellite and satellite to ground data at high rates, adapt to dynamically changing customer requirements and have multiple thrusters and control systems for deorbiting a failed satellite.

SpaceX is able to launch 60 of their satellites at a time using their current Falcon 9 rocket and that will increase to 400 with the Starship. Telesat plans to launch early satellites on Blue Origin and Relativity Space rockets but is talking with others, including SpaceX, for subsequent launches. Goldberg estimates that a Falcon 9 could launch 15 or 16 satellites to an inclined orbit and “something like 13” to a polar orbit. Those numbers would increase roughly 6 times with a Starship.

Since Telesat satellites will be more expensive to build and launch, they are designing them for a ten-year life compared to five years for SpaceX. SpaceX per-satellite manufacturing and launch costs will be much lower than those of Telesat but it will cost them more to make and launch 12,000 satellites than it will cost Telesat to make and launch 298. That being said, SpaceX will have the opportunity to update their technology more frequently and will have the cost advantage of in-house, high-volume mass production.

SpaceX beta testers in relatively affluent nations are paying $500 for a terminal and a monthly fee of $99 and customers will receive untiered, best-effort service with no data caps. (SpaceX may charge consumers less in poorer nations if they have unused capacity). Most beta testers are reporting download speeds of 50 to 150 Mb/s and latency from 20ms to 40ms with occasional dropouts. Capacity will improve as more satellites are launched but the available capacity will be shared by more users.

Telesat will have far fewer customers but will offer guaranteed service-level contracts with speeds up to 7.5 Gbps to a single terminal or 20 Gbps to a hotspot. They will be able to dynamically configure their service -- for example requiring different performance during the day or night or increasing airport capacity during the holiday travel seasons -- which will require a software-defined network operating system. (At one time. they had agreed to use the operating system Google had developed for Project Loon, but Loon was terminated and the network operating system is being designed by Thales Alenia Space, the prime contractor.

SpaceX and Telesat both plan to have polar-orbit and inclined-orbit planes which will enable global coverage. Telesat has applied for a patent on that architecture. There may something unique about the Telesat design and, if the patent is granted, maybe SpaceX will have to pay royalties.

Telesat's orbits are at higher altitudes than those of SpaceX so their satellites will have larger footprints, hops from one satellite to another will be less frequent and their customers will be farther apart, reducing the likelihood of interference. There will also be less congestion and the likelihood of a collision at the higher altitude but, if a satellite fails and becomes debris, it will take longer to deorbit so Telesat satellites have GPS and Galileo receivers, multiple thrusters and control systems, and grappling hooks for tracking and powered de-orbit if necessary.

SpaceX will be in commercial operation before Telesat, but Telesat has gained cutting-edge experience with their work on the Blackjack constellation and will be able to use later technology. For example, SpaceX initially planned to have five inter-satellite laser links (ISLLs) on each satellite, but the technology was not affordable when they began launching satellites so they had none. (They now have 10 satellites with four ISLLs each in orbit). In the meantime, Telesat worked with Mynaric on the Blackjack constellation and when they finally begin launching their satellites they will each have four ISLLs, improving performance and lowering ground segment cost. (Telesat ISLLs will be full-duplex, capable of ingesting 4 x 10 = 40 Gbps and transmitting 4 x 10 = 40 Gbps simultaneously).

Terminals are another key technology. SpaceX will require millions of consumer terminals. They are estimated to cost $1,500 today, but the cost is expected to fall to a few hundred dollars within a year or two. Still, the total cost of consumer terminals will be substantial and they will have many customers to service. SpaceX has applied for permission to deploy mobile terminals on ships, planes, and trucks. (How long will it be before a Starlink terminal is offered on a Tesla car)? Telesat will have a variety of fixed and mobile terminals when they launch their service and I expect that SpaceX will also by that time.

It looks like neither SpaceX nor Telesat will have trouble financing their first production constellations. Telesat says it will need $5 billion, and it has existing GEO revenue, government support for rural connectivity, revenue from the sale of C-band spectrum and loans, and is planning a public stock offering to complete Lightspeed funding. SpaceX says it will need $10 billion, but it has received five grants and completed 15 funding rounds. The latest funding round, completed in April, valued SpaceX at $74 billion, up from $46 billion in August 2020. SpaceX will also receive a subsidy for rural connectivity and has a profitable launch business and government contracts.

SpaceX is vertically integrated, manufacturing satellites and components like phased-array antennas, ISLLs, and user terminals as well as launching their own satellites. SpaceX will develop most of their system in-house but will partner with Microsoft and Google on the ground segment and also uses LeoLab's satellite tracking service. Telesat is handing marketing and customer relations but will outsource launch service, system integration, satellite design and manufacturing, laser terminals, antennas, the operating system, etc. to others. Perhaps they are considering contracting with Google and/or Microsoft for ground infrastructure and service.

I've singled out SpaceX and Telesat for comparison because they have made significant progress, but they are not the only LEO broadband contenders. OneWeb is also focusing on non-consumers and they will be offering service before Telesat. I imagine Amazon Project Kuiper will also focus on non-consumers since Amazon has been an infrastructure company since it was founded. Finally, with plans for 12,992 satellites, my guess is that China SatNet will serve consumers and non-consumers in China and countries with Belt and Road infrastructure projects. Starlink, Lightspeed, and the others can all succeed if we are able to avoid collisions in LEO.

Update 5/31/2021

Telesat had hoped to earn $300 million from C-band spectrum sales, but looks like the Canadian Government, not Telesat will run the auction for its spectrum and it may or may not compensate Telesat when the sale is held in 2023.

Update 3/24/2022

Supply chain problems and inflationary pressure during delays may cause Telesat to cut the size of its constellation by as much as one hundred satellites or raise more money. Schedules have slipped and they now plan to launch the satellites in 2025 and begin service in 2026 -- three years after close competitor OneWeb hopes to begin service. Might the Canadian government help Telesat if necessary?

Update 5/9/2022

Telesat reported that it reduced the size of its planned LEO satellite constellation, Lightspeed. The company still plans to spend a total of $5 billion on Lightspeed, but now plans to operate a total of 188 satellites instead of 298. They will still offer global connectivity but will have less capacity, which will limit revenue.

That's the bad news. The good news is that they received a $30.65 million contract to demonstrate Ka-band transmission between two Earth observation satellites, between LEO satellites and Telesat-operated satellites flying at a higher altitude (in geostationary orbit), and optical transmission between LEO satellites.

Avoiding low-Earth orbit collisions -- the clock is ticking

There was a recent dispute between OneWeb and SpaceX regarding the possibility of a collision between two of their low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. OneWeb's satellite (OneWeb-1078) was launched on March 25 and headed for it's orbit at an altitude of 1,200 km when, in early April, it passed near a SpaceX satellite (Starlink-1546) in orbit at about 450 km.

There was no collision, but subsequently OneWeb's government affairs chief Chris McLaughlin said SpaceX had turned off their autonomous collision-avoidance system so OneWeb could maneuver around their satellite and SpaceX denied that they had switched the system off and said "there was never a risk of collision."

This sounds a little like a PR battle, but both sides may have been sincere because satellite tracking is imprecise. The satellites were being tracked by SpaceX, OneWeb, and two independent organizations, the Air Force 18th Space Control Squadron (18 SPCS) and LeoLabs which offers a commercial satellite tracking service. As we see in the plot shown here (source), their estimates of the probability of collision vary.

In addition to helping explain the dispute between SpaceX and OneWeb, the variance in these estimates illustrates the difficulty of accurately tracking and predicting the orbits of satellite. The incident also highlights the difficulty of communicating and cooperating in deciding on maneuvers to avoid collisions.

SpaceX and OneWeb began deploying their broadband Internet service constellations recently, but as of early 2020, LeoLabs was tracking about 14,000 objects in LEO that were 10 centimeters across and larger. About 1,700 were functional satellites working on other application and the rest were debris. We also had a debris-collision warning Last week when the astronauts en route to the International Space Station were instructed to put on their space suits due to the possiblity of a collision with a piece of space junk.

Fast forward five years

The SpaceX-OneWeb and astronaut-debris events provide an early warning. There are around 3,000 satellites in LEO today, but how about five years from now? As shown here, the five would-be broadband constellation operators have authorization to launch over 30,000 satellites and, if we add in pending requests for approval, the total increases to around 100,000. Furthermore, Russia and the European Union are working on broadband satellite plans as are the US and Chinese militaries and don't forget the forthcoming large non-broadband constellations, like Geely's Geespace constellation.

We've had a few scares recently and the number of close calls requiring an automated or manual maneuver to avoid a collision will increase dramatically in the future. Runaway debris in LEO would cost us more than just having to give up the goal of global broadband service. It would disrupt critical applications we already depend upon in climate science, emergency response, agriculture, etc. I am confident that LEO broadband providers can find solutions to the technical problems they face like low-cost antennas, inter-satellite laser links and spectrum sharing, but collision avoidance is tougher because in addition to technical innovation like improving the accuracy and resolution of terrestrial and space-based orbit tracking, it will take political action.

This map shows that 72 nations own and/or operate satellites, but last week, English-speaking engineers at SpaceX and OneWeb were unable to agree on the orbit data and communicate and cooperate when it appeared that a collision might be forthcoming. If SpaceX and OneWeb cannot agree, what will happen when, for example, military satellites from China and the US are involved?

Space, like the oceans, is a global commons and it is not in anyone's interest to spoil it. We need global regulations, standards and procedure and a means of enforcing compliance if we are to avoid collisions and mitigate debris. We are running out of time. We've been working on maritime law for centuries and the UN International Maritime Council has 174 member states -- have we begun talking about this issue with the Chinese?

It's time to act.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has produced a 12-minute video (with cool animations) that describes the debris problem and the current debris mitigation guidelines, which are neither universally followed nor adequate for the future. ESA projects for automating collision avoidance, refueling and repairing satellites in space, active debris removal and technology to hasten the deorbiting of defunct satellites are mentioned in this call for action. Indeed the title of the video is "Time to Act."

Update 5/2/2021

Several readers pointed out that the Chinese ratified the UN Outer Space Treaty and Registration Convention in the 1980s. If one takes my question "have we begun talking about this issue with the Chinese?" literally, the answer is "yes." But, clearly the situation has changed since the 1980s so a more relevant question would have been "are SpaceX and Guowang engineers talking with each other?" I don't know if we can wait for Outer Space Treaty-2.

Update 6/1/21

Ground segment market researhcr Alexandre Corral predicts that "over 2,100 Earth observation satellites will be launched as part of about 70 constellations during the next decade, driven by the operators' ambition to provide higher revisit with global coverage." That is nothing like what SpaceX and the other broadband constellations anticipate, but it will add to congestion in LEO.